A New Age In Syria

The Why? CurveDecember 19, 2024

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A New Age In Syria

A sudden change in Syria. The men with beards and guns, labelled terrorists by the West, have seized power from a murderous dictator. Is this a recipe for peace in a war-blighted land? Can the US and Europe do business with the new rulers in Damascus? Will Russia have to withdraw? And could the redrawn map of the region lead to the end of a seemingly endless cycle of violence? Phil and Roger discuss all this with Michele Groppi, senior lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London, and president of the ITSS think tank in Verona

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[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing

[00:00:03] Syria is free from the Assad dictatorship

[00:00:06] Prisons are opened, families reunited, some refugees returning

[00:00:10] But the new rulers are officially regarded as terrorists by the West

[00:00:14] Can the US and the UK do business with them?

[00:00:17] Will the Russian military bases there be closed?

[00:00:20] And how does this unexpected change affect the security of this troubled region?

[00:00:24] The Why Curve

[00:00:27] Well, I think it's actually not just the security of that region either, is it?

[00:00:31] You know, it's the what happens to...

[00:00:34] Yeah, I mean, does this become a state that becomes a terror state

[00:00:38] that is more outward looking than it has been?

[00:00:40] I guess perhaps that's why we sort of tolerated Assad regime because...

[00:00:45] Yeah, the devil we knew.

[00:00:45] I think that was certainly true in the early days.

[00:00:47] I think after the Civil War began, it was very much not the case because...

[00:00:51] Well, not least because he got very much on the side with Putin

[00:00:54] and that was seen as highly negative in lots of ways

[00:00:58] but it's a vastly complicated civil war that was going on

[00:01:00] including jihadist groups like ISIS, of course

[00:01:03] So there are American troops in the north of Syria

[00:01:07] supporting Kurdish groups who are fighting ISIS

[00:01:09] I mean, the complications...

[00:01:11] It makes it sound like a hellhole

[00:01:12] and yet I know people who've been to Damascus

[00:01:14] It is beautiful

[00:01:15] Yeah, as they said, it is the most European city there is in the middle of it

[00:01:19] But it's just... it's ancient and very beautiful parts of it

[00:01:22] I've been to Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus

[00:01:24] I mean, it is a really, really beautiful place

[00:01:27] or it was when I was there, which was 20 years ago

[00:01:30] God knows what damage has been done

[00:01:32] but I suppose there is at least a hope that things will now begin to get back

[00:01:36] What I get is a sense of real exhaustion amongst the Syrians

[00:01:39] You know, they've finally got rid of this guy

[00:01:42] Can we stop fighting each other now?

[00:01:43] Now what?

[00:01:44] I wonder what's happening now as well

[00:01:45] I mean, there's the question about

[00:01:46] which, you know, we'll talk about today

[00:01:48] about the power vacuum that this creates

[00:01:50] but how does a nation like that function now?

[00:01:53] Who's running it right now?

[00:01:54] You know, how could it be fed?

[00:01:56] And what is it going to do to the region?

[00:01:58] Because you've got Turkey

[00:01:59] you've got Russia, of course

[00:02:00] which has had a bloody nose from all this

[00:02:01] You've got Israel

[00:02:02] seems to be taking a bit of advantage from it

[00:02:04] You've got Iran

[00:02:05] that's not really obviously on the up

[00:02:07] because it was supporting the Assad regime

[00:02:09] I mean, there's a lot of implications

[00:02:11] and let's find out what people are saying

[00:02:13] in the areas where people think about these things

[00:02:16] the think tanks

[00:02:17] the advisors

[00:02:18] the consultants

[00:02:19] Let's speak to Michele Groppi

[00:02:21] He's Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies

[00:02:22] at King's College London

[00:02:23] and also President of the ITSS Think Tank in Verona

[00:02:26] and he joins us now

[00:02:27] So Michele, I mean, obviously the real danger

[00:02:30] that everyone is concerned about

[00:02:31] is a power vacuum opening up in Syria

[00:02:35] and how do we stop that happening?

[00:02:37] It's a very good question, right?

[00:02:39] So because, you know, I know that

[00:02:41] we cannot really be comparing apples and oranges

[00:02:43] but we've got to be

[00:02:44] you know, it's so funny

[00:02:45] because I really would like to see

[00:02:49] whether a similar situation with Afghanistan

[00:02:51] is going to be replicated

[00:02:53] Let's take a step back

[00:02:55] once again, making this big concession

[00:02:58] this big disclaimer

[00:02:59] that Afghanistan is not Syria

[00:03:01] we do not want to end up comparing apples and oranges

[00:03:03] but if you remember

[00:03:04] as the Taliban took over

[00:03:05] there was a sort of

[00:03:08] big legitimate warning

[00:03:10] and concern

[00:03:11] what is going to happen

[00:03:12] is Afghanistan going to

[00:03:14] revert to being

[00:03:16] a safe-hater for terrorists

[00:03:17] who are we going to relate to?

[00:03:20] Right?

[00:03:20] So are we actually

[00:03:21] legitimizing the Taliban

[00:03:23] after 20 years?

[00:03:24] Right?

[00:03:25] So a number of the

[00:03:26] I'm not going to say

[00:03:27] the same dynamics

[00:03:28] but definitely the same issues

[00:03:29] are emerging here in Syria

[00:03:31] right now

[00:03:32] What are we going to do

[00:03:34] with this Al Jelani figure?

[00:03:35] Right?

[00:03:36] So who is he?

[00:03:38] Right?

[00:03:39] So what does he want?

[00:03:40] And then

[00:03:41] in addition

[00:03:42] how are we going to balance

[00:03:44] all the regional players

[00:03:45] that are in the area?

[00:03:47] What about Turkey?

[00:03:48] What about

[00:03:49] Russia?

[00:03:50] That apparently

[00:03:50] they are retreating

[00:03:52] supposedly

[00:03:53] right?

[00:03:53] So it's too early to say

[00:03:54] but we don't even know

[00:03:56] if they are keeping their base

[00:03:57] right?

[00:03:57] So and so on and so forth

[00:03:58] What about Israel?

[00:04:00] Israel

[00:04:00] I mean so seizing control

[00:04:01] of Mount Hermon

[00:04:04] kind of like

[00:04:05] the whole

[00:04:06] Golan Heights

[00:04:07] and so on and so forth

[00:04:09] So what is happening

[00:04:10] and how do we prevent that?

[00:04:11] Just an apologies for

[00:04:12] And the reason that

[00:04:13] all these questions

[00:04:14] are so key

[00:04:15] is because we didn't see

[00:04:16] any of this coming

[00:04:17] did we?

[00:04:17] I mean it seems to me

[00:04:18] people I've spoken to

[00:04:19] nobody predicted

[00:04:21] that this would happen

[00:04:21] And why did it

[00:04:23] why did it fall so quickly?

[00:04:25] Very good

[00:04:26] Very good

[00:04:26] So thank you Phil and Roger

[00:04:28] and Phil please

[00:04:30] apologies because

[00:04:31] I did not fully

[00:04:33] answer your question

[00:04:34] So Roger before I go back

[00:04:36] So we'll get back to it

[00:04:36] anyway

[00:04:38] Let me really just go back

[00:04:39] to Phil

[00:04:39] So now

[00:04:40] how do we prevent this?

[00:04:42] So obviously

[00:04:42] there's no silver bullet

[00:04:44] in this case

[00:04:46] suddenly we are just

[00:04:47] in that phase

[00:04:48] in which we are

[00:04:48] finding our feet

[00:04:50] right?

[00:04:50] And this is why

[00:04:51] we have

[00:04:52] British

[00:04:53] French

[00:04:54] and supposedly

[00:04:55] even Italian

[00:04:56] I mean so the delegation

[00:04:57] just like

[00:04:58] just try to go in

[00:04:59] and just make sense

[00:05:00] of this new leadership

[00:05:01] which

[00:05:02] and I'm sure

[00:05:02] that we're going to

[00:05:03] come back to this

[00:05:04] appears to be

[00:05:05] slightly moderate

[00:05:06] like quote unquote

[00:05:07] moderate

[00:05:07] and so the point being

[00:05:09] that right now

[00:05:09] we just have to

[00:05:11] really

[00:05:11] first thing first

[00:05:12] just try to appreciate

[00:05:13] what the Syrians

[00:05:15] have been going through

[00:05:16] and little by little

[00:05:17] just try to come to terms

[00:05:19] with the fact that

[00:05:20] there is a new leadership

[00:05:20] and in a way or the other

[00:05:22] we will have to cooperate

[00:05:23] I know

[00:05:24] that this may sound

[00:05:25] fairly naive

[00:05:26] and simplistic

[00:05:27] but we got to start

[00:05:28] from somewhere

[00:05:29] now Roger

[00:05:30] on to you

[00:05:30] why didn't we

[00:05:32] predict this?

[00:05:33] Oh great question

[00:05:34] my friend

[00:05:35] I was

[00:05:36] in the area

[00:05:38] and I'm pretty sure

[00:05:39] that you

[00:05:40] both of you

[00:05:41] I mean

[00:05:41] are very familiar

[00:05:42] and do remember

[00:05:43] I mean

[00:05:43] so like time

[00:05:45] as the Arab Spring

[00:05:46] I mean

[00:05:47] it just started

[00:05:48] unfolding

[00:05:49] and one of the

[00:05:50] very first

[00:05:50] court decisions

[00:05:50] that I remember

[00:05:51] right

[00:05:52] so it was a number

[00:05:52] of years ago

[00:05:53] but I still remember

[00:05:53] was that

[00:05:54] whoa

[00:05:54] we have a lot

[00:05:55] of analysts

[00:05:57] and we didn't

[00:05:58] predict this

[00:05:59] right

[00:05:59] so we didn't

[00:06:00] understand

[00:06:00] the social

[00:06:02] climate

[00:06:03] we didn't

[00:06:03] understand

[00:06:04] the zeitgeist

[00:06:05] we didn't

[00:06:05] understand

[00:06:06] all this tension

[00:06:07] that were

[00:06:08] buffling up

[00:06:08] and at a certain

[00:06:09] point just exploded

[00:06:10] so here

[00:06:12] my humble

[00:06:14] my humble

[00:06:15] take on this

[00:06:16] is the following

[00:06:17] and please

[00:06:18] I'm not saying

[00:06:19] this with any

[00:06:20] vein of arrogance

[00:06:21] or a sense

[00:06:22] of superiority

[00:06:23] because

[00:06:23] people

[00:06:25] matter

[00:06:25] so no matter

[00:06:26] where they're

[00:06:27] from

[00:06:28] the context

[00:06:29] and so on

[00:06:29] and so forth

[00:06:30] but in a

[00:06:31] very brutal

[00:06:31] term

[00:06:32] we didn't

[00:06:32] give a damn

[00:06:33] right

[00:06:34] so about it

[00:06:35] for us

[00:06:36] for a number

[00:06:37] of us

[00:06:37] Syria was just

[00:06:39] a frozen

[00:06:40] conflict

[00:06:40] one of those

[00:06:41] conflicts

[00:06:42] to be forgotten

[00:06:43] that yes

[00:06:44] it's sad

[00:06:45] it's tragic

[00:06:45] but you know

[00:06:47] there's Gaza

[00:06:47] there's Lebanon

[00:06:48] there's Ukraine

[00:06:49] there are other

[00:06:49] much more

[00:06:51] geopolitically

[00:06:51] and strategically

[00:06:52] speaking

[00:06:53] important conflicts

[00:06:54] and therefore

[00:06:55] you know

[00:06:56] we know it's

[00:06:56] there

[00:06:56] again

[00:06:57] I'm not saying

[00:06:58] that it was

[00:06:58] important

[00:06:58] no it is

[00:06:59] important

[00:07:00] everybody was in

[00:07:01] there

[00:07:01] like who was

[00:07:01] in Syria

[00:07:02] right

[00:07:03] but at the

[00:07:03] same time

[00:07:05] even academically

[00:07:06] speaking

[00:07:06] the level

[00:07:07] of debate

[00:07:08] the level

[00:07:08] of research

[00:07:10] wasn't

[00:07:10] really that

[00:07:11] great

[00:07:12] right

[00:07:13] if I

[00:07:13] have to be

[00:07:14] very honest

[00:07:15] with you

[00:07:15] right

[00:07:17] the other

[00:07:18] thing

[00:07:19] we notice

[00:07:20] things

[00:07:20] escalate

[00:07:21] very quickly

[00:07:23] when the

[00:07:24] time

[00:07:24] is ripe

[00:07:26] here

[00:07:28] rebels

[00:07:29] and terrorists

[00:07:31] managed to

[00:07:32] obtain

[00:07:33] what arguably

[00:07:34] they didn't

[00:07:34] have to

[00:07:35] obtain

[00:07:36] in 10 years

[00:07:36] but why

[00:07:37] because

[00:07:38] obviously

[00:07:39] what has

[00:07:40] been happening

[00:07:41] between Israel

[00:07:41] and Iran

[00:07:42] right

[00:07:43] so Iran

[00:07:43] back in

[00:07:44] Hamas

[00:07:44] Iran

[00:07:45] back in

[00:07:45] Hezbollah

[00:07:46] tip for

[00:07:48] we saw

[00:07:48] like the

[00:07:49] back and

[00:07:49] forth

[00:07:49] between

[00:07:50] the two

[00:07:50] countries

[00:07:52] in spite

[00:07:53] of a

[00:07:53] number

[00:07:56] fairly

[00:07:56] fierce

[00:07:58] statements

[00:07:59] both

[00:08:00] right

[00:08:01] so but

[00:08:02] nobody

[00:08:03] nobody

[00:08:03] at the

[00:08:03] end of

[00:08:04] the day

[00:08:04] can really

[00:08:05] it's

[00:08:06] okay

[00:08:06] I am

[00:08:07] very happy

[00:08:07] to be

[00:08:08] fighting

[00:08:08] on X

[00:08:09] number

[00:08:09] of fronts

[00:08:11] Israel

[00:08:11] cannot do

[00:08:12] that

[00:08:12] and neither

[00:08:13] can the

[00:08:13] Islamic Republic

[00:08:15] of Iran

[00:08:15] which

[00:08:17] doesn't

[00:08:17] really like

[00:08:17] the situation

[00:08:18] arguably

[00:08:19] has to

[00:08:19] do that

[00:08:20] but it's

[00:08:21] it has

[00:08:21] been weakened

[00:08:22] tremendously

[00:08:23] and Russia

[00:08:24] well it's

[00:08:25] under our

[00:08:25] very eyes

[00:08:27] you saw

[00:08:27] what is

[00:08:27] happening

[00:08:28] and they

[00:08:28] had to

[00:08:28] make sure

[00:08:29] that they

[00:08:29] can get

[00:08:31] to the

[00:08:31] hopefully

[00:08:32] at this

[00:08:32] point

[00:08:32] if I may

[00:08:34] apologies

[00:08:34] for being

[00:08:34] unprofessional

[00:08:35] but hopefully

[00:08:36] if we are

[00:08:37] to get to

[00:08:38] the negotiation

[00:08:38] table

[00:08:39] well

[00:08:39] at this

[00:08:40] point

[00:08:40] Putin's

[00:08:41] game

[00:08:41] is to get

[00:08:41] as much

[00:08:42] as possible

[00:08:42] and therefore

[00:08:43] pulling

[00:08:43] resources

[00:08:44] out of

[00:08:45] Mali

[00:08:46] out of

[00:08:47] Syria

[00:08:48] and relocate

[00:08:49] those

[00:08:49] to Ukraine

[00:08:50] in the

[00:08:51] Donbass

[00:08:52] would be a

[00:08:52] fairly good

[00:08:53] tactic

[00:08:53] so what you're

[00:08:54] arguing here

[00:08:55] is a kind

[00:08:55] of weakness

[00:08:55] a weakness

[00:08:56] perhaps for

[00:08:57] Iran

[00:08:57] certainly

[00:08:58] a weakening

[00:08:59] of Hezbollah

[00:09:00] and Hamas

[00:09:00] a weakening

[00:09:01] of Russia

[00:09:02] but the

[00:09:02] strength

[00:09:03] which is the

[00:09:04] other side

[00:09:04] of that

[00:09:05] was coming

[00:09:05] from Turkey

[00:09:06] wasn't it

[00:09:06] it seemed

[00:09:06] that Turkey

[00:09:07] was what

[00:09:08] was pushing

[00:09:08] this forward

[00:09:09] well I'd be

[00:09:09] interested in

[00:09:10] knowing because

[00:09:10] there's so

[00:09:10] many players

[00:09:11] and there

[00:09:11] have been

[00:09:11] historically

[00:09:12] haven't there

[00:09:12] in this

[00:09:13] part of

[00:09:13] the world

[00:09:15] what is

[00:09:16] everyone's

[00:09:16] interest

[00:09:16] in this

[00:09:17] region

[00:09:17] so the

[00:09:18] sects

[00:09:19] within

[00:09:23] Syria

[00:09:23] but also

[00:09:24] why were

[00:09:25] the French

[00:09:25] there

[00:09:27] early part

[00:09:27] of the

[00:09:28] century

[00:09:29] last century

[00:09:29] history

[00:09:30] yeah

[00:09:30] it all

[00:09:31] gets back

[00:09:32] to history

[00:09:32] doesn't it

[00:09:32] what's Russia's

[00:09:33] interest in

[00:09:34] all of this

[00:09:36] and what's

[00:09:36] the significance

[00:09:37] of the

[00:09:38] Golan Heights

[00:09:39] and we

[00:09:40] understand why

[00:09:40] Israel is

[00:09:41] there saying

[00:09:41] well okay

[00:09:42] we want to

[00:09:43] try and stop

[00:09:43] the weapons

[00:09:44] getting into

[00:09:44] the wrong

[00:09:45] hands

[00:09:45] but I mean

[00:09:45] if they're

[00:09:46] going there

[00:09:46] for a bit

[00:09:46] of a land

[00:09:47] grab

[00:09:47] which you

[00:09:47] would have

[00:09:48] thought would

[00:09:48] be enormously

[00:09:48] unpopular

[00:09:49] with the world

[00:09:49] but we let it

[00:09:50] keep on happening

[00:09:51] of course

[00:09:51] you know

[00:09:52] why that

[00:09:53] so I mean

[00:09:54] let's work

[00:09:54] through country

[00:09:55] by country

[00:09:56] what's Russia's

[00:09:57] interest

[00:09:57] is it just

[00:09:58] the Mediterranean

[00:10:00] port that they

[00:10:01] get access to

[00:10:02] air base

[00:10:03] very good

[00:10:04] so thank

[00:10:05] you both

[00:10:06] thank you

[00:10:06] let me go

[00:10:07] back to your

[00:10:08] very initial

[00:10:08] point

[00:10:08] now we know

[00:10:10] that things

[00:10:10] are developing

[00:10:11] and therefore

[00:10:11] it's way

[00:10:12] too early

[00:10:13] to say

[00:10:13] that someone

[00:10:14] really really

[00:10:15] lost or

[00:10:16] really really

[00:10:17] but if I

[00:10:17] were to

[00:10:18] hedge my

[00:10:18] bets

[00:10:18] if I

[00:10:19] were to

[00:10:19] put my

[00:10:20] finger on

[00:10:21] and bet

[00:10:21] money

[00:10:22] I would

[00:10:22] say that

[00:10:23] well not

[00:10:24] just me

[00:10:24] right

[00:10:24] so a number

[00:10:25] of analysts

[00:10:26] saying that

[00:10:27] so far

[00:10:28] it looks

[00:10:28] like

[00:10:28] or I'm

[00:10:30] not going to

[00:10:31] call it

[00:10:31] like the

[00:10:31] biggest winner

[00:10:32] right so

[00:10:32] but definitely

[00:10:33] who's leading

[00:10:33] here is

[00:10:34] Turkey

[00:10:34] of course

[00:10:35] right so

[00:10:35] in Turkey

[00:10:36] they have

[00:10:36] a huge

[00:10:37] vested interest

[00:10:38] in Syria

[00:10:40] on a number

[00:10:41] of levels

[00:10:41] so first

[00:10:42] we have to

[00:10:43] actually look

[00:10:44] back at what

[00:10:45] is happening

[00:10:45] in Turkey

[00:10:46] right now

[00:10:48] Erdogan

[00:10:49] has suffered

[00:10:51] a number

[00:10:51] of tremendous

[00:10:52] internal political

[00:10:53] blows

[00:10:53] in a number

[00:10:54] of parts

[00:10:54] of the country

[00:10:55] even Ankara

[00:10:56] and even

[00:10:56] Istanbul

[00:10:57] right so

[00:10:58] have been

[00:10:59] major cities

[00:10:59] really getting

[00:11:01] fed up

[00:11:02] with his

[00:11:03] way of

[00:11:03] ruling the

[00:11:03] country

[00:11:04] his take

[00:11:05] on a

[00:11:06] number

[00:11:06] issues

[00:11:06] however

[00:11:07] this

[00:11:08] ongoing

[00:11:09] tragic

[00:11:10] ongoing

[00:11:10] conflict

[00:11:11] in the

[00:11:11] Gaza

[00:11:12] and a number

[00:11:12] of other

[00:11:13] places

[00:11:13] has relocated

[00:11:15] Turkey

[00:11:16] you know

[00:11:18] in a very

[00:11:18] good

[00:11:18] political

[00:11:19] geopolitical

[00:11:20] spot

[00:11:20] right so

[00:11:21] both

[00:11:21] vis-a-vis

[00:11:22] the Russian

[00:11:23] Ukrainian

[00:11:24] conflict

[00:11:24] so weapon

[00:11:26] I'm not

[00:11:26] going to

[00:11:26] say weapon

[00:11:27] Nazi

[00:11:27] but definitely

[00:11:27] through the

[00:11:28] straits of

[00:11:29] the Nardonells

[00:11:30] right so

[00:11:32] what Russia

[00:11:33] wanted to do

[00:11:34] that initially

[00:11:35] all the

[00:11:36] wheat

[00:11:37] and the

[00:11:38] food

[00:11:38] I mean

[00:11:38] so just

[00:11:39] coming in

[00:11:40] I'm sure

[00:11:41] that you

[00:11:41] remember

[00:11:41] right so

[00:11:42] at the

[00:11:42] beginning

[00:11:42] of the

[00:11:42] conflict

[00:11:43] there was

[00:11:43] a lot

[00:11:43] of talk

[00:11:43] on food

[00:11:44] security

[00:11:45] guess where

[00:11:46] particularly

[00:11:46] going to

[00:11:47] Egypt

[00:11:49] and Europe

[00:11:50] through

[00:11:50] Turkey

[00:11:51] but Syria

[00:11:52] you know

[00:11:53] is just

[00:11:53] huge for

[00:11:54] them

[00:11:54] so first

[00:11:55] and first

[00:11:55] it is

[00:11:56] a great

[00:11:57] way to

[00:11:57] reinstate

[00:11:58] their

[00:11:59] political

[00:12:00] international

[00:12:00] stance

[00:12:02] Erdogan

[00:12:03] needs

[00:12:04] something

[00:12:04] like this

[00:12:05] point number

[00:12:06] to divert

[00:12:07] attention

[00:12:07] internally

[00:12:08] but also

[00:12:08] to reaffirm

[00:12:09] itself

[00:12:09] on the

[00:12:10] global

[00:12:10] stage

[00:12:10] point

[00:12:11] number

[00:12:11] well

[00:12:12] Kurds

[00:12:13] right

[00:12:14] as we

[00:12:15] know

[00:12:15] as we

[00:12:16] know

[00:12:16] Erdogan

[00:12:17] and his

[00:12:19] administration

[00:12:19] have been

[00:12:21] fairly

[00:12:22] vocal

[00:12:23] right

[00:12:24] and then

[00:12:24] they

[00:12:24] acted

[00:12:25] upon

[00:12:25] you know

[00:12:26] like

[00:12:26] their

[00:12:27] policy

[00:12:28] eradicate

[00:12:30] a number

[00:12:32] pockets

[00:12:33] a number

[00:12:34] resistant

[00:12:34] entities

[00:12:36] both

[00:12:37] in Turkey

[00:12:38] and across

[00:12:39] the border

[00:12:39] the Syrian

[00:12:40] conflict

[00:12:41] allowed

[00:12:42] them

[00:12:44] enter

[00:12:45] conflict

[00:12:46] create

[00:12:48] first

[00:12:49] buffer

[00:12:49] zone

[00:12:49] right

[00:12:50] zone

[00:12:51] influence

[00:12:52] little

[00:12:52] little

[00:12:52] either

[00:12:53] drive

[00:12:54] some

[00:12:55] Kurds

[00:12:56] seriously

[00:12:57] putting

[00:12:58] a number

[00:12:59] Kurdish

[00:13:00] cities

[00:13:00] under

[00:13:01] their

[00:13:01] control

[00:13:01] right

[00:13:02] and so

[00:13:03] at the end

[00:13:03] of the day

[00:13:04] this is

[00:13:04] exactly what

[00:13:05] they did

[00:13:05] right

[00:13:06] and so

[00:13:07] that's

[00:13:08] their

[00:13:08] vested

[00:13:09] interest

[00:13:09] and at

[00:13:10] the end

[00:13:10] of the

[00:13:10] Turkey

[00:13:11] I'm not

[00:13:12] going to

[00:13:12] see that

[00:13:12] he wins

[00:13:13] because we

[00:13:13] have to

[00:13:13] see how

[00:13:14] this all

[00:13:14] develops

[00:13:15] but for

[00:13:15] the moment

[00:13:16] it looks

[00:13:16] like they

[00:13:18] had achieved

[00:13:19] what they

[00:13:20] wanted to

[00:13:20] do by

[00:13:21] supporting

[00:13:23] a number

[00:13:24] not all

[00:13:25] obviously

[00:13:26] but a

[00:13:26] number of

[00:13:27] factions

[00:13:27] right

[00:13:28] but what

[00:13:29] does

[00:13:29] want to

[00:13:30] happen

[00:13:30] with the

[00:13:31] Kurds

[00:13:31] then

[00:13:31] I mean

[00:13:32] does he

[00:13:32] just want

[00:13:33] kill them

[00:13:34] or does

[00:13:34] he want

[00:13:34] them

[00:13:34] contained

[00:13:35] what's

[00:13:36] game

[00:13:37] okay

[00:13:37] I believe

[00:13:38] but yet

[00:13:39] again

[00:13:39] this is my

[00:13:40] gut feeling

[00:13:40] but also

[00:13:41] thank God

[00:13:42] like my

[00:13:43] conversations

[00:13:43] with people

[00:13:44] on the

[00:13:45] ground

[00:13:45] and also

[00:13:46] even from

[00:13:47] Kurdistan

[00:13:47] right

[00:13:48] I'm not

[00:13:49] going to

[00:13:49] be speaking

[00:13:50] on behalf

[00:13:51] of all

[00:13:51] the Kurdistan

[00:13:52] nation

[00:13:52] which we

[00:13:53] know

[00:13:53] scattered

[00:13:54] right

[00:13:55] so around

[00:13:55] the region

[00:13:56] but the

[00:13:56] gut feeling

[00:13:57] even at

[00:13:58] a fairly

[00:13:59] good

[00:13:59] like high

[00:14:00] level

[00:14:00] military

[00:14:02] ranks

[00:14:02] is that

[00:14:04] Turkey

[00:14:05] wishes

[00:14:06] to expand

[00:14:07] its area

[00:14:07] of influence

[00:14:08] at the

[00:14:09] expense of

[00:14:09] the Kurds

[00:14:10] and other

[00:14:11] regional actors

[00:14:12] in this

[00:14:12] case

[00:14:12] such as

[00:14:13] Syria

[00:14:15] honestly

[00:14:15] don't

[00:14:16] think

[00:14:16] that he's

[00:14:16] going to

[00:14:17] go about

[00:14:18] the total

[00:14:20] eradication

[00:14:20] and even

[00:14:21] genocidal

[00:14:22] right

[00:14:24] policy

[00:14:24] right

[00:14:25] so vis-a-vis

[00:14:25] the Kurds

[00:14:26] but definitely

[00:14:27] pushing them

[00:14:28] further away

[00:14:29] putting a

[00:14:30] number of

[00:14:31] Syrian

[00:14:33] Syrian

[00:14:34] slash Kurdish

[00:14:35] cities

[00:14:36] and villages

[00:14:36] under

[00:14:38] control

[00:14:39] so he's

[00:14:40] going to

[00:14:40] go for

[00:14:40] a bit

[00:14:40] of a

[00:14:40] land

[00:14:41] grab

[00:14:41] for the

[00:14:42] border

[00:14:42] Turkey

[00:14:42] what

[00:14:43] about

[00:14:43] Russia

[00:14:43] then

[00:14:43] we've

[00:14:44] sort

[00:14:44] said

[00:14:44] okay

[00:14:44] this is

[00:14:45] Turkey's

[00:14:45] view

[00:14:45] and where

[00:14:46] Turkey's

[00:14:46] going on

[00:14:47] that

[00:15:05] in a

[00:15:05] very

[00:15:06] similar

[00:15:06] that

[00:15:07] watched

[00:15:08] with

[00:15:08] you know

[00:15:11] great

[00:15:11] surprise

[00:15:12] right

[00:15:13] because

[00:15:13] thought

[00:15:14] that

[00:15:14] at least

[00:15:14] Russians

[00:15:15] would

[00:15:16] either

[00:15:16] I'm not

[00:15:16] to say

[00:15:17] like

[00:15:17] you know

[00:15:18] engaging

[00:15:20] tremendously

[00:15:21] fights

[00:15:22] and all

[00:15:23] that

[00:15:23] but definitely

[00:15:24] retreat

[00:15:25] at least

[00:15:26] like from

[00:15:26] the images

[00:15:27] that we're

[00:15:28] seeing

[00:15:35] you know

[00:15:38] as you

[00:15:38] were saying

[00:15:38] like

[00:15:39] not only

[00:15:39] a simple

[00:15:40] waste

[00:15:40] of money

[00:15:41] hang on

[00:15:42] a second

[00:15:42] why did

[00:15:43] you do

[00:15:43] that

[00:15:43] this looks

[00:15:45] but why

[00:15:46] were they

[00:15:46] there in

[00:15:47] the first

[00:15:47] place

[00:15:47] I mean

[00:15:48] that might

[00:15:48] explain

[00:15:48] they're

[00:15:49] not too

[00:15:50] concerned

[00:15:50] about

[00:15:50] pulling

[00:15:51] very good

[00:15:53] Russia's

[00:15:54] geography

[00:15:55] right

[00:15:55] if we

[00:15:56] were to

[00:15:56] go down

[00:15:57] with

[00:15:58] recent

[00:15:58] Kaplan's

[00:15:59] book

[00:16:00] right

[00:16:01] revenge

[00:16:02] geography

[00:16:02] right

[00:16:03] so just

[00:16:03] meaning

[00:16:04] that

[00:16:04] geography

[00:16:04] still

[00:16:04] matters

[00:16:05] today

[00:16:05] I mean

[00:16:06] we can

[00:16:06] unpack

[00:16:07] we can

[00:16:07] absolutely

[00:16:08] argue

[00:16:08] for and

[00:16:09] against

[00:16:09] but if

[00:16:10] we were

[00:16:10] to apply

[00:16:11] his main

[00:16:11] message

[00:16:12] to the

[00:16:13] book

[00:16:13] and say

[00:16:13] well

[00:16:14] you know

[00:16:14] Russia

[00:16:15] historically

[00:16:15] always been

[00:16:16] very interested

[00:16:17] in establishing

[00:16:18] that

[00:16:18] right

[00:16:20] they're

[00:16:21] strongholds

[00:16:21] on the

[00:16:22] Mediterranean

[00:16:22] right

[00:16:23] lonely

[00:16:26] Mediterranean

[00:16:26] coast

[00:16:26] and what

[00:16:27] a golden

[00:16:27] opportunity

[00:16:28] when all

[00:16:28] this started

[00:16:29] to defend

[00:16:30] and a lie

[00:16:31] and not

[00:16:31] just to defend

[00:16:32] a lie

[00:16:32] because we

[00:16:33] have to

[00:16:33] put everything

[00:16:33] back in

[00:16:33] context

[00:16:34] remember

[00:16:35] when the

[00:16:35] Syrian

[00:16:35] conflict

[00:16:35] started

[00:16:36] Russia

[00:16:37] previously

[00:16:38] started

[00:16:39] so-called

[00:16:39] mobilization

[00:16:40] right

[00:16:40] so the

[00:16:40] mobilization

[00:16:41] of its

[00:16:42] troops

[00:16:43] modernization

[00:16:44] of a number

[00:16:45] of things

[00:16:45] the introduction

[00:16:46] of new

[00:16:47] weaponry

[00:16:47] and technology

[00:16:48] and da da da

[00:16:48] what

[00:16:49] what better

[00:16:50] theater

[00:16:50] theater of

[00:16:51] action

[00:16:52] try all

[00:16:53] this

[00:16:54] assemble

[00:16:55] this

[00:16:55] right

[00:16:56] than

[00:16:57] Syrian

[00:16:58] theater

[00:16:59] right

[00:17:00] and therefore

[00:17:02] of a sudden

[00:17:02] you have

[00:17:03] both

[00:17:03] geopolitical

[00:17:05] and strategic

[00:17:05] interest

[00:17:06] right

[00:17:06] so just

[00:17:07] securing

[00:17:07] the base

[00:17:08] counter

[00:17:09] in the

[00:17:09] region

[00:17:10] and so

[00:17:10] on and

[00:17:11] so forth

[00:17:13] test

[00:17:13] test

[00:17:14] right

[00:17:15] so a number

[00:17:15] of things

[00:17:16] in fact

[00:17:16] if you

[00:17:17] remember

[00:17:17] then 2014

[00:17:19] Ukraine

[00:17:19] right

[00:17:21] which then

[00:17:21] developed

[00:17:22] once again

[00:17:23] Putin

[00:17:24] used

[00:17:25] Syria

[00:17:26] right

[00:17:26] so as

[00:17:27] a training

[00:17:28] ground

[00:17:29] on one

[00:17:29] level

[00:17:29] and also

[00:17:30] once again

[00:17:31] a reaffirmation

[00:17:32] of the Russian

[00:17:33] presence

[00:17:34] and geopolitical

[00:17:35] stance

[00:17:36] we are here

[00:17:37] and we're here

[00:17:37] to stay

[00:17:38] we are a

[00:17:39] global

[00:17:39] superpower

[00:17:40] this is how

[00:17:41] they see

[00:17:42] themselves

[00:17:42] and therefore

[00:17:43] like that

[00:17:44] that was

[00:17:44] the reason

[00:17:45] why they

[00:17:45] were there

[00:17:46] in the

[00:17:47] first place

[00:17:47] and is it

[00:17:48] a huge

[00:17:48] blow to

[00:17:50] that he

[00:17:50] has lost

[00:17:51] that now

[00:17:51] I mean

[00:17:51] in a way

[00:17:52] it doesn't

[00:17:52] matter

[00:17:52] because he's

[00:17:53] fighting in

[00:17:53] Ukraine

[00:17:53] it's not

[00:17:54] essential

[00:17:55] to Russia

[00:17:55] itself

[00:17:56] but it

[00:17:57] looks embarrassing

[00:17:57] mistake

[00:17:58] if he could

[00:17:58] have had

[00:17:59] all these

[00:17:59] resources

[00:17:59] Syria

[00:18:00] opens up

[00:18:00] for him

[00:18:01] he could

[00:18:01] have

[00:18:01] could have

[00:18:02] claimed

[00:18:02] the territory

[00:18:02] and had

[00:18:03] his port

[00:18:03] on the

[00:18:04] Mediterranean

[00:18:04] oh yeah

[00:18:04] oh yeah

[00:18:05] absolutely

[00:18:06] so see

[00:18:06] this is why

[00:18:07] like even

[00:18:08] myself was

[00:18:08] like oh

[00:18:09] hang on a

[00:18:09] second

[00:18:10] what's

[00:18:10] happening

[00:18:10] so on

[00:18:11] one level

[00:18:12] I can't

[00:18:12] understand

[00:18:14] would

[00:18:15] pull out

[00:18:16] or gradually

[00:18:16] pull out

[00:18:17] right

[00:18:18] because

[00:18:19] he needs

[00:18:21] he needs

[00:18:22] men and

[00:18:22] women

[00:18:22] I mean

[00:18:23] just fighting

[00:18:24] for him

[00:18:24] in Ukraine

[00:18:25] because

[00:18:26] now I know

[00:18:27] it's hard to

[00:18:28] predict

[00:18:28] what is

[00:18:28] in Trump's

[00:18:29] head

[00:18:29] what it

[00:18:31] is in

[00:18:32] his head

[00:18:33] in Zelensky's

[00:18:33] head

[00:18:34] right

[00:18:34] so it's

[00:18:35] difficult

[00:18:35] nevertheless

[00:18:36] right

[00:18:37] so even

[00:18:38] as I speak

[00:18:39] with my

[00:18:39] Ukrainian

[00:18:40] former

[00:18:41] course

[00:18:41] members

[00:18:42] like officers

[00:18:43] here like

[00:18:43] on the

[00:18:43] course

[00:18:44] at the

[00:18:44] front

[00:18:45] even they

[00:18:46] that the

[00:18:47] end may

[00:18:47] be near

[00:18:48] and if

[00:18:49] that's

[00:18:49] if that

[00:18:50] is so

[00:18:50] if that

[00:18:50] is the

[00:18:51] case

[00:18:51] this makes

[00:18:52] sense

[00:18:53] right

[00:18:53] so because

[00:18:53] he needs

[00:18:54] to push

[00:18:55] as hard

[00:18:56] as he can

[00:18:57] to obtain

[00:18:57] a much

[00:18:58] better deal

[00:18:59] or the

[00:18:59] best

[00:18:59] possible

[00:19:00] deal

[00:19:00] that he

[00:19:00] could

[00:19:00] possibly

[00:19:01] at the

[00:19:01] negotiation

[00:19:02] table

[00:19:02] now is

[00:19:03] this happening

[00:19:04] tomorrow

[00:19:04] is this

[00:19:04] happening

[00:19:06] a number

[00:19:06] of months

[00:19:07] is it

[00:19:07] never

[00:19:07] happened

[00:19:07] we obviously

[00:19:08] don't know

[00:19:09] right

[00:19:09] so but

[00:19:09] if this

[00:19:09] is the

[00:19:10] logic

[00:19:10] this makes

[00:19:10] sense

[00:19:10] nevertheless

[00:19:12] not even

[00:19:13] claiming

[00:19:14] because

[00:19:14] this is

[00:19:15] what it

[00:19:15] looks like

[00:19:16] today

[00:19:16] maybe

[00:19:17] maybe

[00:19:18] I am

[00:19:18] completely

[00:19:19] wrong

[00:19:19] so maybe

[00:19:20] completely

[00:19:20] track

[00:19:20] from

[00:19:20] what

[00:19:21] we're

[00:19:21] seeing

[00:19:22] today

[00:19:22] it looks

[00:19:23] like

[00:19:23] they're not

[00:19:23] even

[00:19:23] interested

[00:19:24] which is

[00:19:25] whoa

[00:19:25] what's

[00:19:26] going on

[00:19:26] going

[00:19:27] home

[00:19:27] what

[00:19:28] I mean

[00:19:28] the other

[00:19:29] the third

[00:19:30] if you

[00:19:30] like

[00:19:30] of the

[00:19:30] most

[00:19:31] interested

[00:19:31] nations

[00:19:32] I suppose

[00:19:32] in all

[00:19:32] this

[00:19:33] Israel

[00:19:34] and we

[00:19:35] touched

[00:19:35] on that

[00:19:35] briefly

[00:19:36] Israel

[00:19:37] undermined

[00:19:38] Hezbollah

[00:19:39] defeated

[00:19:39] them

[00:19:40] pretty

[00:19:40] dramatically

[00:19:42] obviously

[00:19:42] taken

[00:19:43] advantage

[00:19:43] to some

[00:19:43] extent

[00:19:44] what's

[00:19:44] going

[00:19:44] Syria

[00:19:45] what

[00:19:45] does

[00:19:46] Israel

[00:19:46] gain

[00:19:46] from

[00:19:47] this

[00:19:47] anything

[00:19:47] very

[00:19:48] good

[00:19:48] things

[00:19:49] in my

[00:19:50] humble

[00:19:50] opinion

[00:19:51] well

[00:19:51] actually

[00:19:52] maybe

[00:19:52] even

[00:19:52] three

[00:19:53] let's

[00:19:53] just

[00:19:53] start

[00:19:53] from

[00:19:54] first

[00:19:54] first

[00:19:55] Israel

[00:19:56] as you

[00:19:57] know

[00:19:57] as we

[00:19:58] know

[00:19:59] justifying

[00:19:59] grab

[00:19:59] land

[00:20:00] international

[00:20:01] let's

[00:20:01] just

[00:20:02] try to

[00:20:02] take a

[00:20:02] look

[00:20:04] at this

[00:20:05] from

[00:20:06] quote

[00:20:06] unquote

[00:20:07] Israeli

[00:20:07] strategic

[00:20:08] thought

[00:20:08] right

[00:20:09] they

[00:20:09] don't

[00:20:10] have

[00:20:10] strategic

[00:20:11] depth

[00:20:11] right

[00:20:12] they

[00:20:13] just

[00:20:13] don't

[00:20:14] therefore

[00:20:15] more

[00:20:16] buffer

[00:20:17] zones

[00:20:17] they

[00:20:18] create

[00:20:18] right

[00:20:20] better

[00:20:21] therefore

[00:20:21] they

[00:20:22] have

[00:20:23] in a

[00:20:23] very

[00:20:24] cynical

[00:20:24] and yet

[00:20:25] strategic

[00:20:26] exploited

[00:20:27] situation

[00:20:28] grab

[00:20:28] Mount

[00:20:29] Hermon

[00:20:29] right

[00:20:30] which

[00:20:32] highest

[00:20:32] point

[00:20:34] from

[00:20:34] which

[00:20:35] they

[00:20:35] even

[00:20:35] target

[00:20:37] capital

[00:20:37] right

[00:20:38] it's

[00:20:38] strategic

[00:20:39] that

[00:20:39] point

[00:20:40] number

[00:20:40] point

[00:20:41] number

[00:20:41] water

[00:20:42] security

[00:20:43] because

[00:20:44] golden

[00:20:44] heights

[00:20:44] right

[00:20:46] Israel

[00:20:46] they

[00:20:46] Chimera

[00:20:47] this

[00:20:48] lake

[00:20:48] Galilee

[00:20:49] it's

[00:20:49] known

[00:20:50] Lake

[00:20:51] Galilee

[00:20:51] absolutely

[00:20:52] where

[00:20:52] most

[00:20:53] water

[00:20:53] comes

[00:20:54] from

[00:20:55] therefore

[00:20:55] securing

[00:20:56] even

[00:20:56] that

[00:20:57] part

[00:20:57] right

[00:20:58] north

[00:20:59] Galilee

[00:21:00] even

[00:21:00] more

[00:21:01] strategic

[00:21:02] region

[00:21:02] which

[00:21:02] with all

[00:21:03] respect

[00:21:04] Canada

[00:21:05] right

[00:21:06] abundant

[00:21:08] water

[00:21:08] hydrant

[00:21:09] resources

[00:21:11] reason

[00:21:11] number

[00:21:12] three

[00:21:12] this

[00:21:13] marginal

[00:21:15] Netanyahu's

[00:21:15] legacy

[00:21:16] I mean

[00:21:17] Netanyahu

[00:21:17] and his

[00:21:17] legacy

[00:21:18] if you

[00:21:19] remember

[00:21:19] and we

[00:21:21] talk

[00:21:21] about

[00:21:21] this

[00:21:21] right

[00:21:22] when

[00:21:23] well

[00:21:24] spoke to

[00:21:24] of course

[00:21:24] after the

[00:21:25] October

[00:21:27] massacres

[00:21:27] in Israel

[00:21:28] very good

[00:21:30] at that

[00:21:31] time

[00:21:31] if you

[00:21:31] remember

[00:21:33] think

[00:21:34] mentioned

[00:21:34] this

[00:21:34] that

[00:21:34] they

[00:21:35] would

[00:21:36] want

[00:21:36] head

[00:21:38] civil

[00:21:38] platter

[00:21:39] right

[00:21:40] when

[00:21:40] this

[00:21:40] over

[00:21:41] know

[00:21:44] he's

[00:21:44] I mean

[00:21:45] for a

[00:21:45] for a

[00:21:46] good run

[00:21:47] outside of

[00:21:48] Israel

[00:21:48] and we

[00:21:48] know

[00:21:49] this

[00:21:49] right

[00:21:49] already

[00:21:50] like

[00:21:50] rulings

[00:21:51] and all

[00:21:51] that

[00:21:51] even

[00:21:52] inside

[00:21:52] Israel

[00:21:52] right

[00:21:54] will

[00:21:54] always

[00:21:55] remembered

[00:21:56] that

[00:21:56] person

[00:21:57] made

[00:21:58] this

[00:21:58] possible

[00:22:00] October

[00:22:02] start

[00:22:02] sadly

[00:22:04] October

[00:22:05] obviously

[00:22:05] right

[00:22:06] started

[00:22:06] well

[00:22:07] before

[00:22:07] right

[00:22:09] only

[00:22:09] tactical

[00:22:10] terms

[00:22:10] probably

[00:22:11] Hamas

[00:22:13] Palestinian

[00:22:13] others

[00:22:14] took

[00:22:14] probably

[00:22:14] more

[00:22:15] than

[00:22:15] years

[00:22:16] to put

[00:22:16] whole

[00:22:16] thing

[00:22:19] beyond

[00:22:19] this

[00:22:20] beyond

[00:22:21] military

[00:22:21] tactical

[00:22:22] dimension

[00:22:23] thing

[00:22:23] that

[00:22:23] Netanyahu

[00:22:25] broke

[00:22:25] de facto

[00:22:26] right

[00:22:27] practically

[00:22:27] Israeli

[00:22:27] society

[00:22:29] putting

[00:22:30] intelligence

[00:22:30] community

[00:22:30] against

[00:22:34] exacerbating

[00:22:35] relationship

[00:22:36] between

[00:22:37] establishment

[00:22:39] even

[00:22:40] former

[00:22:40] heads

[00:22:40] Mossad

[00:22:41] right

[00:22:42] supposed

[00:22:43] to talk

[00:22:43] about

[00:22:43] politics

[00:22:44] public

[00:22:44] even

[00:22:44] they

[00:22:45] enter

[00:22:45] discourse

[00:22:46] which

[00:22:46] you know

[00:22:47] something

[00:22:47] revolutionary

[00:22:48] Israel

[00:22:49] last

[00:22:50] but not

[00:22:50] least

[00:22:50] society

[00:22:51] right

[00:22:52] through

[00:22:53] judiciary

[00:22:54] reform

[00:22:55] right

[00:22:56] accused

[00:22:59] dictatorship

[00:23:01] and so

[00:23:02] forth

[00:23:02] therefore

[00:23:03] why am

[00:23:03] bringing

[00:23:04] them

[00:23:05] this

[00:23:05] point

[00:23:06] started

[00:23:09] counter

[00:23:09] campaign

[00:23:10] against

[00:23:11] Hezbollah

[00:23:11] and all

[00:23:12] that

[00:23:12] you know

[00:23:13] we have

[00:23:13] give them

[00:23:14] credit

[00:23:15] in this

[00:23:15] sense

[00:23:15] they achieved

[00:23:16] something

[00:23:16] which was

[00:23:17] impossible

[00:23:18] which was

[00:23:19] visionary

[00:23:19] right

[00:23:20] so a

[00:23:20] number of

[00:23:20] months ago

[00:23:21] when all

[00:23:21] this is going

[00:23:22] to be over

[00:23:22] with

[00:23:22] leaving

[00:23:23] Gaza

[00:23:23] aside

[00:23:24] when I

[00:23:24] this

[00:23:25] don't

[00:23:26] mean

[00:23:26] that

[00:23:26] emotionally

[00:23:26] right

[00:23:27] always

[00:23:28] respect

[00:23:28] what

[00:23:29] happening

[00:23:29] over

[00:23:30] there

[00:23:30] just

[00:23:31] from

[00:23:31] very

[00:23:32] tactical

[00:23:32] point

[00:23:33] view

[00:23:34] Mossad

[00:23:35] have

[00:23:35] rewritten

[00:23:37] warfare

[00:23:37] right

[00:23:38] so like

[00:23:38] with the

[00:23:39] pages

[00:23:40] that

[00:23:41] sort

[00:23:43] warfare

[00:23:44] transforming

[00:23:46] civilian

[00:23:47] natural

[00:23:50] to day

[00:23:51] devices

[00:23:52] and things

[00:23:53] into

[00:23:53] weapons

[00:23:54] right

[00:23:55] with that

[00:23:55] being said

[00:23:55] he has

[00:23:56] continue

[00:23:57] right

[00:23:58] this

[00:23:59] effort

[00:24:00] right

[00:24:01] just

[00:24:02] that

[00:24:02] history

[00:24:04] would be

[00:24:04] kinder

[00:24:05] on him

[00:24:05] and he

[00:24:06] and I

[00:24:06] know

[00:24:07] so even

[00:24:07] through

[00:24:08] personal

[00:24:08] connections

[00:24:09] he cares

[00:24:10] about that

[00:24:10] right

[00:24:10] so about

[00:24:11] legacy

[00:24:12] let us

[00:24:13] never forget

[00:24:13] who his

[00:24:13] father

[00:24:14] right

[00:24:15] the key

[00:24:15] historian

[00:24:16] what

[00:24:18] went

[00:24:19] he's a

[00:24:20] family

[00:24:20] they're a

[00:24:20] very prominent

[00:24:21] family

[00:24:21] and he

[00:24:22] wants to

[00:24:23] preserve

[00:24:23] that

[00:24:24] so the

[00:24:24] world

[00:24:24] will be

[00:24:25] different

[00:24:25] Israel

[00:24:25] after all

[00:24:26] this

[00:24:26] so what

[00:24:27] about

[00:24:27] then

[00:24:28] you know

[00:24:28] the group

[00:24:29] that have

[00:24:30] brought

[00:24:31] down

[00:24:32] Assad

[00:24:32] regime

[00:24:34] who are

[00:24:34] seen as a

[00:24:35] terrorist

[00:24:35] group

[00:24:36] officially

[00:24:36] considered

[00:24:37] to be

[00:24:37] that

[00:24:37] makes

[00:24:38] it very

[00:24:38] difficult

[00:24:38] negotiate

[00:24:39] with them

[00:24:39] so long

[00:24:40] as that

[00:24:40] continues

[00:24:40] so will

[00:24:41] that

[00:24:41] I mean

[00:24:42] they're

[00:24:42] trying to

[00:24:43] make it

[00:24:43] sound

[00:24:43] so hey

[00:24:44] look

[00:24:44] we're

[00:24:44] the nice

[00:24:45] guys

[00:24:46] we've

[00:24:47] seen

[00:24:47] the error

[00:24:47] of our

[00:24:47] ways

[00:24:48] we just

[00:24:49] want a

[00:24:49] peaceful

[00:24:49] nation

[00:24:49] do we

[00:24:50] believe

[00:24:50] them

[00:24:50] and does

[00:24:51] that

[00:24:51] mean

[00:24:51] that

[00:24:52] West

[00:24:52] has to

[00:24:53] change

[00:24:54] the way

[00:24:55] approaches

[00:24:55] them

[00:24:55] it's

[00:24:56] such a

[00:24:56] good

[00:25:19] this

[00:25:19] critically

[00:25:20] analytically

[00:25:21] possible

[00:25:21] so who

[00:25:22] they

[00:25:23] consider

[00:25:24] them

[00:25:24] terrorists

[00:25:24] I know

[00:25:25] that this

[00:25:25] is up

[00:25:27] interpretation

[00:25:28] and all

[00:25:29] that

[00:25:29] but definitely

[00:25:30] let us never

[00:25:31] forget that

[00:25:32] they do

[00:25:32] come out

[00:25:33] Nusra

[00:25:34] parts of

[00:25:35] al-qaeda

[00:25:36] parts of

[00:25:36] ISIS

[00:25:36] so in

[00:25:37] terms of

[00:25:38] ideology

[00:25:40] well

[00:25:40] you know

[00:25:42] they're not

[00:25:43] ideal partners

[00:25:44] and yes

[00:25:45] I am

[00:25:46] worried

[00:25:46] right

[00:25:47] because

[00:25:50] prospects

[00:25:50] right

[00:25:51] may not

[00:25:52] sound

[00:25:53] beautiful

[00:25:54] looking

[00:25:55] forward

[00:25:56] I mean

[00:25:56] so they

[00:25:57] have

[00:25:57] a pretty

[00:25:59] extremist

[00:26:00] let's put it

[00:26:00] this way

[00:26:01] vision

[00:26:01] of life

[00:26:02] vision

[00:26:03] of religion

[00:26:03] regulation

[00:26:05] women

[00:26:06] and gender

[00:26:06] rights

[00:26:07] other minorities

[00:26:09] and so on

[00:26:10] so forth

[00:26:10] so again

[00:26:11] it's the

[00:26:11] dangers

[00:26:11] it becomes

[00:26:11] another

[00:26:12] Afghanistan

[00:26:12] at the end

[00:26:13] of all

[00:26:13] of this

[00:26:13] however

[00:26:14] very good

[00:26:14] so this

[00:26:15] is potentially

[00:26:16] the danger

[00:26:16] however

[00:26:17] one thing

[00:26:18] that

[00:26:19] absolutely

[00:26:20] caught my

[00:26:20] attention

[00:26:21] and it

[00:26:21] was like

[00:26:22] this is

[00:26:23] still a

[00:26:24] reaffirmation

[00:26:25] of the

[00:26:25] fact that

[00:26:25] we should

[00:26:27] never forget

[00:26:28] about this

[00:26:28] let us

[00:26:29] remind us

[00:26:30] terrorism

[00:26:31] even if

[00:26:31] other people

[00:26:32] don't like

[00:26:33] it right

[00:26:33] so or

[00:26:34] or don't like

[00:26:35] to be called

[00:26:35] it that way

[00:26:36] it doesn't

[00:26:36] really matter

[00:26:36] but even

[00:26:37] if we go

[00:26:37] back to

[00:26:38] my field

[00:26:38] right

[00:26:38] so just

[00:26:39] to the

[00:26:39] literature

[00:26:40] terrorism

[00:26:40] terrorists

[00:26:41] essentially

[00:26:42] political

[00:26:43] actors

[00:26:44] never forget

[00:26:45] about this

[00:26:46] they are

[00:26:46] intelligent

[00:26:47] we have

[00:26:48] to respect

[00:26:49] them

[00:26:49] we don't

[00:26:49] have to

[00:26:50] look down

[00:26:50] on them

[00:26:51] they are

[00:26:52] smart

[00:26:52] right

[00:26:53] so in

[00:26:53] this sense

[00:26:55] Al Jolani

[00:26:56] is absolutely

[00:26:57] proving this

[00:26:58] point

[00:26:58] is a case

[00:26:58] in point

[00:27:00] Al Jolani

[00:27:01] look he may

[00:27:02] not have

[00:27:02] PhDs

[00:27:03] but that

[00:27:03] doesn't mean

[00:27:03] that he's

[00:27:04] stupid

[00:27:04] or that

[00:27:05] doesn't

[00:27:05] mean that

[00:27:05] he doesn't

[00:27:06] know what

[00:27:06] is happening

[00:27:06] around

[00:27:07] and that

[00:27:08] doesn't

[00:27:08] mean that

[00:27:08] he doesn't

[00:27:09] have a

[00:27:09] strategy

[00:27:09] and in

[00:27:10] my opinion

[00:27:10] he's doing

[00:27:11] a brilliant

[00:27:11] job right

[00:27:12] well he's

[00:27:13] got some

[00:27:13] very good

[00:27:13] PR out

[00:27:14] there by

[00:27:14] saying

[00:27:15] right up

[00:27:16] the top

[00:27:16] every Syrian

[00:27:17] is valid

[00:27:18] you know

[00:27:18] we're not

[00:27:19] distinguishing

[00:27:19] Christians

[00:27:20] and Druze

[00:27:21] and the

[00:27:21] others

[00:27:22] I mean

[00:27:22] it's good

[00:27:23] PR at

[00:27:24] least

[00:27:24] oh yeah

[00:27:25] it's amazing

[00:27:26] but what's

[00:27:27] that

[00:27:27] but if

[00:27:28] they

[00:27:28] I mean

[00:27:28] okay let's

[00:27:29] be cynical

[00:27:29] what's the

[00:27:30] end game

[00:27:30] then

[00:27:30] yeah

[00:27:30] oh yeah

[00:27:31] very good

[00:27:32] excellent

[00:27:32] question

[00:27:33] in my

[00:27:39] you won

[00:27:40] on the

[00:27:41] field

[00:27:42] that doesn't

[00:27:42] mean that

[00:27:43] you're going

[00:27:43] to be

[00:27:43] winning

[00:27:43] eventually

[00:27:44] you gotta

[00:27:44] win the

[00:27:45] peace

[00:27:45] right

[00:27:46] and therefore

[00:27:48] this is

[00:27:49] already

[00:27:49] even if he

[00:27:50] doesn't

[00:27:50] believe

[00:27:51] in his

[00:27:52] own words

[00:27:52] but definitely

[00:27:53] signaling this

[00:27:54] to the

[00:27:56] wider

[00:27:56] country

[00:27:56] and the

[00:27:57] wider

[00:27:57] international

[00:27:57] community

[00:27:58] is key

[00:27:59] is pivotal

[00:28:00] at this

[00:28:01] point of

[00:28:01] the conflict

[00:28:02] they want

[00:28:02] stability

[00:28:03] and we

[00:28:04] said this

[00:28:05] even when

[00:28:05] Afghanistan

[00:28:06] fell

[00:28:07] when Kabul

[00:28:07] fell

[00:28:08] and the

[00:28:09] Taliban

[00:28:09] returned

[00:28:09] it is

[00:28:10] one thing

[00:28:10] to retake

[00:28:12] to reconquer

[00:28:13] the country

[00:28:13] it is

[00:28:14] another

[00:28:14] thing

[00:28:14] to rule

[00:28:16] the country

[00:28:16] you need

[00:28:17] doctors

[00:28:18] you need

[00:28:18] lawyers

[00:28:19] you need

[00:28:19] civil society

[00:28:21] and in doing

[00:28:21] that you

[00:28:22] need to attract

[00:28:22] international

[00:28:23] investors

[00:28:24] donors

[00:28:25] the international

[00:28:26] community

[00:28:26] embassies have

[00:28:27] to come back

[00:28:28] and so on

[00:28:28] so you

[00:28:29] have to be

[00:28:29] credible

[00:28:30] do they

[00:28:31] definitely

[00:28:31] want to

[00:28:32] rule

[00:28:32] I mean

[00:28:32] if you

[00:28:33] believe the

[00:28:34] argument

[00:28:34] that they've

[00:28:34] seen the

[00:28:35] error of

[00:28:35] their ways

[00:28:36] you could

[00:28:37] you know

[00:28:37] give them

[00:28:38] the benefit

[00:28:38] of the

[00:28:38] doubt

[00:28:38] and say

[00:28:39] well actually

[00:28:39] they just

[00:28:39] wanted to

[00:28:40] see Assad

[00:28:40] gone

[00:28:41] so that

[00:28:42] they could

[00:28:43] find a

[00:28:44] new democracy

[00:28:45] for example

[00:28:46] well they've

[00:28:46] said they're

[00:28:47] going to be

[00:28:47] elections

[00:28:47] I think in

[00:28:48] about three

[00:28:48] or four

[00:28:48] months

[00:28:49] haven't they

[00:28:49] I believe

[00:28:50] that they are

[00:28:51] playing a very

[00:28:51] intelligent game

[00:28:52] whether they

[00:28:53] believe it

[00:28:53] or not

[00:28:54] right

[00:28:54] but it's

[00:28:55] very intelligent

[00:28:55] at this point

[00:28:56] if they don't

[00:28:57] believe it

[00:28:57] you know

[00:28:58] at least

[00:28:58] again

[00:28:59] they get

[00:28:59] something out

[00:29:00] of it

[00:29:00] if they

[00:29:01] believe it

[00:29:01] then they

[00:29:02] open

[00:29:03] they really

[00:29:03] open up

[00:29:04] the possibility

[00:29:06] I'm not

[00:29:08] going to

[00:29:08] call it

[00:29:08] so I

[00:29:09] really wish

[00:29:10] you know

[00:29:11] like that

[00:29:11] the democracy

[00:29:12] you know

[00:29:13] would come in

[00:29:14] and so on

[00:29:15] and so forth

[00:29:15] right

[00:29:15] so but that

[00:29:16] is in my

[00:29:18] humble opinion

[00:29:18] all to be seen

[00:29:19] right

[00:29:20] so it's

[00:29:21] kind of

[00:29:21] so you

[00:29:22] don't think

[00:29:22] it's going

[00:29:22] to happen

[00:29:23] in a hurry

[00:29:23] exactly

[00:29:24] so it

[00:29:24] could

[00:29:24] sound like

[00:29:25] a fairly

[00:29:25] interesting

[00:29:26] paradox

[00:29:26] then

[00:29:27] a norm

[00:29:28] quote unquote

[00:29:29] jihadist

[00:29:30] group

[00:29:31] opens it up

[00:29:33] to democracy

[00:29:34] and then

[00:29:34] they lose

[00:29:35] in the

[00:29:35] election

[00:29:35] well I

[00:29:36] think we

[00:29:36] heard that

[00:29:36] in Egypt

[00:29:37] didn't

[00:29:38] famously

[00:29:40] exactly

[00:29:40] exactly

[00:29:41] and they

[00:29:42] demonstrate

[00:29:43] they're

[00:29:43] signaling

[00:29:44] everything

[00:29:44] they do

[00:29:45] they study

[00:29:46] what is

[00:29:46] going on

[00:29:47] around

[00:29:48] and they

[00:29:49] want to

[00:29:49] calm

[00:29:50] everyone

[00:29:50] down

[00:29:51] but nevertheless

[00:29:52] are we

[00:29:53] really going

[00:29:53] to see a

[00:29:54] free election

[00:29:54] in Syria

[00:29:55] are we

[00:29:56] really going

[00:29:56] to see

[00:29:57] everything

[00:29:57] that they

[00:29:58] that they're

[00:29:58] going to

[00:29:59] uphold

[00:29:59] I tend

[00:30:01] to be

[00:30:01] slightly

[00:30:02] more

[00:30:02] skeptical

[00:30:02] but I

[00:30:04] will

[00:30:04] definitely

[00:30:04] give one

[00:30:05] thing to

[00:30:05] them

[00:30:05] is that

[00:30:06] they're

[00:30:06] pragmatists

[00:30:07] right

[00:30:08] and in

[00:30:09] this sense

[00:30:10] I can

[00:30:11] absolutely

[00:30:11] understand

[00:30:12] like go

[00:30:12] belly to

[00:30:12] your initial

[00:30:13] question

[00:30:13] Roger

[00:30:14] why are

[00:30:15] we seeing

[00:30:15] some

[00:30:16] people

[00:30:16] in there

[00:30:17] because

[00:30:17] we also

[00:30:18] at least

[00:30:19] to certain

[00:30:19] extent

[00:30:20] want to

[00:30:20] pragmatist

[00:30:21] as well

[00:30:22] I don't

[00:30:22] know if

[00:30:22] you saw

[00:30:23] that

[00:30:23] but even

[00:30:23] today

[00:30:23] this morning

[00:30:24] they said

[00:30:24] oh don't

[00:30:26] worry

[00:30:26] Syria

[00:30:26] is not

[00:30:27] going to

[00:30:28] become

[00:30:29] a base

[00:30:32] attacks

[00:30:33] against

[00:30:34] the state

[00:30:34] of Israel

[00:30:35] which is

[00:30:35] very interesting

[00:30:36] because

[00:30:37] according to

[00:30:38] their logic

[00:30:38] and their

[00:30:39] history

[00:30:40] Israel

[00:30:40] by definition

[00:30:41] incarnates

[00:30:42] well

[00:30:43] the devil

[00:30:44] I mean

[00:30:45] the enemy

[00:30:47] par excellence

[00:30:49] however

[00:30:50] they're like

[00:30:51] look

[00:30:51] we just

[00:30:52] came out

[00:30:52] of a

[00:30:52] very

[00:30:52] bloody

[00:30:54] like

[00:30:54] awful

[00:30:55] atrocious

[00:30:56] civil war

[00:30:57] we have

[00:30:58] to rebuild

[00:30:59] the country

[00:30:59] we have

[00:31:00] to keep

[00:31:00] moving

[00:31:01] forward

[00:31:01] Assad

[00:31:02] may come

[00:31:03] back

[00:31:03] right

[00:31:04] so because

[00:31:04] you know

[00:31:05] they're afraid

[00:31:05] of that

[00:31:06] even though

[00:31:06] we don't

[00:31:07] really see

[00:31:07] I mean

[00:31:07] so that

[00:31:08] prospect

[00:31:09] when they're

[00:31:09] like

[00:31:10] we just

[00:31:11] want to

[00:31:11] make sure

[00:31:11] we have

[00:31:12] to appear

[00:31:12] good

[00:31:13] we have

[00:31:13] to appear

[00:31:13] moderate

[00:31:14] I don't

[00:31:15] know if

[00:31:15] you know

[00:31:15] does he

[00:31:16] even

[00:31:16] change

[00:31:16] appearance

[00:31:17] well he's

[00:31:17] doing a lot

[00:31:18] on video

[00:31:18] that's for

[00:31:19] sure

[00:31:19] absolutely

[00:31:19] he's making

[00:31:20] sure he's

[00:31:20] seen

[00:31:20] but how

[00:31:22] divided

[00:31:23] is the

[00:31:24] population

[00:31:24] of Syria

[00:31:25] I mean

[00:31:25] how much

[00:31:26] support

[00:31:26] does he

[00:31:26] have

[00:31:27] and if

[00:31:27] Assad

[00:31:28] comes

[00:31:28] back

[00:31:28] Assad

[00:31:29] would find

[00:31:29] it very

[00:31:29] difficult

[00:31:30] if he

[00:31:30] couldn't

[00:31:30] have

[00:31:30] an army

[00:31:31] to sit

[00:31:31] behind

[00:31:34] attitude

[00:31:34] of the

[00:31:44] have

[00:31:44] Syrian

[00:31:45] friends

[00:31:45] and I

[00:31:46] long

[00:31:47] them

[00:31:47] right

[00:31:48] again

[00:31:49] not in

[00:31:49] a patronizing

[00:31:50] anything

[00:31:51] like this

[00:31:51] but they've

[00:31:51] been through

[00:31:52] so much

[00:31:52] that right

[00:31:54] actually

[00:31:54] from a

[00:31:55] very

[00:31:55] external

[00:31:56] selfish

[00:31:57] and western

[00:31:58] perspective

[00:31:59] I can

[00:31:59] absolutely

[00:31:59] appreciate

[00:32:02] so many

[00:32:02] people

[00:32:03] even though

[00:32:03] they don't

[00:32:04] like

[00:32:04] the rebels

[00:32:06] and a

[00:32:06] number of

[00:32:07] terrorist

[00:32:07] entities

[00:32:08] that are

[00:32:08] like

[00:32:08] okay

[00:32:11] bloodiest

[00:32:12] dictatorships

[00:32:13] throughout

[00:32:14] history

[00:32:15] let us

[00:32:16] celebrate

[00:32:17] and then

[00:32:18] little by

[00:32:19] little

[00:32:19] we can

[00:32:19] go on

[00:32:20] because

[00:32:20] if they

[00:32:21] really

[00:32:21] open a

[00:32:22] little bit

[00:32:23] then it's

[00:32:23] still better

[00:32:24] than living

[00:32:26] under

[00:32:26] Assad's

[00:32:27] dictatorship

[00:32:28] right

[00:32:29] and so

[00:32:30] they are

[00:32:30] still divided

[00:32:31] because

[00:32:31] no question

[00:32:32] about it

[00:32:33] right

[00:32:33] so on

[00:32:34] sectarian

[00:32:34] lines

[00:32:35] on religious

[00:32:36] lines

[00:32:36] on economic

[00:32:37] lines

[00:32:38] right

[00:32:39] so and

[00:32:39] so on

[00:32:40] and so

[00:32:40] forth

[00:32:40] right

[00:32:41] so and

[00:32:42] yeah

[00:32:42] yet again

[00:32:43] there are

[00:32:44] some people

[00:32:44] who really

[00:32:45] appreciate

[00:32:46] I know

[00:32:48] right

[00:32:48] so but

[00:32:49] who would

[00:32:51] absolutely

[00:32:52] be happy

[00:32:53] for Turkey

[00:32:54] to be

[00:32:55] there

[00:32:55] right

[00:32:57] there are

[00:32:58] others

[00:32:59] who still

[00:32:59] absolutely

[00:33:00] and that

[00:33:01] is going to be

[00:33:02] very interesting

[00:33:03] in my

[00:33:04] opinion

[00:33:04] like the

[00:33:05] Shia

[00:33:05] community

[00:33:06] and how

[00:33:06] Hezbollah

[00:33:07] right

[00:33:08] so is

[00:33:08] going to

[00:33:09] see the

[00:33:09] whole

[00:33:09] matter

[00:33:10] once the

[00:33:11] conflict

[00:33:11] with Israel

[00:33:12] is over

[00:33:12] and what will

[00:33:13] happen in

[00:33:13] Lebanon

[00:33:14] as a result

[00:33:15] because

[00:33:17] Syria has

[00:33:17] always been

[00:33:18] the big

[00:33:18] brother

[00:33:18] as it

[00:33:19] were

[00:33:19] Lebanon

[00:33:20] and if

[00:33:21] it comes

[00:33:21] to finding

[00:33:21] a peaceful

[00:33:22] outcome

[00:33:23] I mean

[00:33:23] Europe's

[00:33:23] got no

[00:33:24] part to

[00:33:24] play

[00:33:24] and it

[00:33:24] seems like

[00:33:25] France has

[00:33:26] reopened

[00:33:26] their embassy

[00:33:26] there now

[00:33:27] and France

[00:33:28] obviously

[00:33:29] is it just

[00:33:29] the guilt

[00:33:29] factor

[00:33:30] from the

[00:33:31] history

[00:33:32] that they

[00:33:33] occupied it

[00:33:34] for a while

[00:33:34] so France

[00:33:35] is feeling

[00:33:35] as though

[00:33:35] we've got

[00:33:36] to make

[00:33:36] good

[00:33:37] the bad

[00:33:37] of the

[00:33:38] past

[00:33:38] is that

[00:33:38] their role

[00:33:39] and is it

[00:33:41] best for

[00:33:41] Europe

[00:33:42] just to

[00:33:43] Turkey

[00:33:46] Arab

[00:33:46] nations

[00:33:46] and Israel

[00:33:47] sort it out

[00:33:48] between them

[00:33:48] another excellent

[00:33:49] question

[00:33:50] thank you both

[00:33:50] I've actually

[00:33:51] been thinking

[00:33:52] a lot

[00:33:52] about this

[00:33:53] let me

[00:33:54] share

[00:33:54] with you

[00:33:55] conversation

[00:33:55] that I

[00:33:57] with

[00:33:58] a number

[00:33:59] of military

[00:34:00] they just

[00:34:01] called them

[00:34:01] western

[00:34:02] military

[00:34:02] officers

[00:34:03] right

[00:34:03] so I'm

[00:34:04] not going

[00:34:04] to reveal

[00:34:04] the nationality

[00:34:07] here

[00:34:08] right

[00:34:08] and they

[00:34:09] said

[00:34:09] we are

[00:34:10] losing

[00:34:11] like

[00:34:12] quote

[00:34:12] unquote

[00:34:13] Europe

[00:34:14] we are

[00:34:14] losing

[00:34:15] ground

[00:34:17] every

[00:34:17] single

[00:34:18] in the

[00:34:19] fairly

[00:34:19] perhaps

[00:34:20] even

[00:34:21] irreversible

[00:34:22] ways

[00:34:22] in Africa

[00:34:24] so let's

[00:34:24] just leave

[00:34:24] Syria

[00:34:25] aside

[00:34:25] just for

[00:34:26] one second

[00:34:26] but I'm

[00:34:26] coming to

[00:34:27] that

[00:34:27] like

[00:34:28] setting

[00:34:28] scene

[00:34:28] make

[00:34:29] point

[00:34:37] European

[00:34:37] powers

[00:34:38] good

[00:34:39] right

[00:34:40] fact

[00:34:41] like

[00:34:41] French

[00:34:42] Mali

[00:34:42] right

[00:34:42] just

[00:34:43] take

[00:34:43] that

[00:34:43] example

[00:34:43] that

[00:34:44] iconic

[00:34:45] example

[00:34:45] right

[00:34:46] just

[00:34:46] boot it

[00:34:46] out of

[00:34:47] country

[00:34:47] welcoming

[00:34:48] Russia

[00:34:48] and Wagner

[00:34:49] it's not

[00:34:50] going

[00:34:50] very well

[00:34:51] right

[00:34:52] anyway

[00:34:53] we're

[00:34:53] that

[00:35:06] going

[00:35:06] back

[00:35:07] very

[00:35:08] famous

[00:35:09] 2014

[00:35:10] President

[00:35:11] Obama's

[00:35:11] people

[00:35:12] Asia

[00:35:13] right

[00:35:13] everything

[00:35:14] seems

[00:35:14] to be

[00:35:14] gravitating

[00:35:15] around

[00:35:15] that

[00:35:15] part

[00:35:15] world

[00:35:17] AUKUS

[00:35:17] South

[00:35:18] China

[00:35:19] right

[00:35:20] and so

[00:35:20] and so

[00:35:20] forth

[00:35:21] after

[00:35:21] Ukraine

[00:35:21] you know

[00:35:23] emphasis

[00:35:24] is going

[00:35:24] to be

[00:35:24] there

[00:35:25] Indo-Pacific

[00:35:26] is the

[00:35:26] next

[00:35:28] team

[00:35:28] they

[00:35:28] argue

[00:35:29] right

[00:35:29] world

[00:35:30] therefore

[00:35:32] want

[00:35:32] to say

[00:35:33] mean

[00:35:33] United

[00:35:33] States

[00:35:34] Europe

[00:35:35] gradually

[00:35:35] disengage

[00:35:36] or delegate

[00:35:37] right

[00:35:38] a number

[00:35:39] things

[00:35:39] Middle

[00:35:40] East

[00:35:40] Israel

[00:35:42] usual

[00:35:43] just

[00:35:43] Israel

[00:35:44] Saudi

[00:35:44] Arabia

[00:35:45] growing

[00:35:46] Abraham

[00:35:46] Accords

[00:35:47] which

[00:35:48] argue

[00:35:48] in a way

[00:35:49] other

[00:35:49] still

[00:35:50] continue

[00:35:50] even

[00:35:51] after

[00:35:51] everything

[00:35:52] that is

[00:35:52] happening

[00:35:55] Gaza

[00:35:56] therefore

[00:35:58] making

[00:35:58] sense

[00:35:58] of this

[00:35:59] premise

[00:35:59] what is

[00:36:00] going to

[00:36:00] happen

[00:36:01] right

[00:36:01] France

[00:36:04] were

[00:36:04] saying

[00:36:04] Roger

[00:36:04] definitely

[00:36:05] there

[00:36:05] due to

[00:36:06] historical

[00:36:06] reasons

[00:36:07] that's

[00:36:07] absolutely

[00:36:07] fine

[00:36:08] and also

[00:36:09] my gut

[00:36:09] feeling

[00:36:10] but yet

[00:36:10] again

[00:36:11] this is

[00:36:11] and also

[00:36:13] talking

[00:36:13] with people

[00:36:14] for instance

[00:36:15] at the

[00:36:16] Ecole

[00:36:16] de guerre

[00:36:17] right

[00:36:17] so in

[00:36:17] Paris

[00:36:18] right

[00:36:18] so we

[00:36:19] just had

[00:36:19] this

[00:36:19] conversation

[00:36:19] yesterday

[00:36:21] and they

[00:36:21] were

[00:36:21] saying

[00:36:21] look

[00:36:22] cannot

[00:36:22] really

[00:36:22] afford

[00:36:23] another

[00:36:24] Mali

[00:36:24] in this

[00:36:25] sense

[00:36:25] so at

[00:36:26] least

[00:36:26] here

[00:36:26] have

[00:36:26] look

[00:36:26] good

[00:36:27] right

[00:36:28] then

[00:36:28] not really

[00:36:29] sure what is

[00:36:30] going to

[00:36:30] happen

[00:36:30] probably

[00:36:31] we're not

[00:36:31] putting

[00:36:32] troops

[00:36:32] money

[00:36:33] and all

[00:36:33] that

[00:36:34] but we

[00:36:34] gotta show

[00:36:35] the world

[00:36:35] that we're

[00:36:37] still

[00:36:37] matter

[00:36:37] once again

[00:36:38] that we're

[00:36:39] there

[00:36:39] because we

[00:36:40] do not

[00:36:40] want to

[00:36:40] be booted

[00:36:41] right

[00:36:42] and not

[00:36:43] taken

[00:36:44] into

[00:36:44] account

[00:36:45] just like

[00:36:46] happened

[00:36:47] in a

[00:36:47] number of

[00:36:48] other parts

[00:36:48] of the world

[00:36:48] so Europe

[00:36:49] wanting to

[00:36:49] have still

[00:36:50] some kind

[00:36:52] input

[00:36:52] in an

[00:36:54] area where

[00:36:54] historically

[00:36:56] of course

[00:36:56] we've been

[00:36:57] but not

[00:36:57] with any

[00:36:58] great result

[00:36:58] and especially

[00:37:00] because our

[00:37:00] fear

[00:37:01] and you

[00:37:02] think

[00:37:02] even the

[00:37:03] Italian

[00:37:03] government

[00:37:03] right

[00:37:04] so which

[00:37:04] is actually

[00:37:05] very interesting

[00:37:05] because we've

[00:37:06] been kind of

[00:37:07] silent

[00:37:08] when it came

[00:37:09] to that

[00:37:09] but even

[00:37:10] the Italian

[00:37:10] government

[00:37:10] one of the

[00:37:11] first things

[00:37:12] that they

[00:37:12] said

[00:37:12] like oh

[00:37:13] let's just

[00:37:13] hope that

[00:37:13] that doesn't

[00:37:14] that

[00:37:14] not so much

[00:37:16] Afghanistan

[00:37:16] but that

[00:37:17] doesn't become

[00:37:17] a terrorist

[00:37:18] haven

[00:37:19] from which

[00:37:21] attacks against

[00:37:22] Europe

[00:37:22] could be

[00:37:24] orchestrated

[00:37:24] because it's

[00:37:26] all on the

[00:37:26] doorstep

[00:37:27] which would

[00:37:28] be a reason

[00:37:28] for the

[00:37:29] West to

[00:37:29] turn a

[00:37:30] blind eye

[00:37:31] of Israel

[00:37:31] was to

[00:37:31] say well

[00:37:32] let's grab

[00:37:32] as much

[00:37:33] as we

[00:37:33] can in

[00:37:33] this

[00:37:34] I mean

[00:37:34] it would

[00:37:35] you know

[00:37:36] we'd be

[00:37:36] horrified

[00:37:37] but on

[00:37:38] the other

[00:37:38] side

[00:37:38] people

[00:37:38] would be

[00:37:38] going

[00:37:39] but you

[00:37:39] know

[00:37:39] as a

[00:37:40] resolution

[00:37:41] to the

[00:37:41] issue

[00:37:43] we've been

[00:37:44] saying

[00:37:44] these things

[00:37:45] for a number

[00:37:46] of years

[00:37:47] even

[00:37:48] well before

[00:37:48] Assad

[00:37:48] fell

[00:37:49] right

[00:37:50] relations

[00:37:51] weapons

[00:37:52] right

[00:37:53] by the

[00:37:55] same

[00:37:55] thing

[00:37:55] could

[00:37:56] happening

[00:37:57] Ukraine

[00:37:57] once

[00:37:58] conflict

[00:37:58] over

[00:37:59] what

[00:37:59] about

[00:37:59] those

[00:38:00] used

[00:38:00] weapons

[00:38:01] know

[00:38:02] where

[00:38:03] are they

[00:38:03] going

[00:38:04] number

[00:38:04] that

[00:38:04] could

[00:38:05] going

[00:38:05] could

[00:38:06] into

[00:38:07] black

[00:38:07] markets

[00:38:08] then

[00:38:08] actually

[00:38:09] acquired

[00:38:09] neo-nazis

[00:38:12] white

[00:38:12] supremacists

[00:38:13] extremists

[00:38:14] and even

[00:38:14] jihadist

[00:38:15] groups

[00:38:15] right

[00:38:16] and so

[00:38:16] here in

[00:38:17] Syria

[00:38:17] with

[00:38:18] a number

[00:38:19] sites

[00:38:19] potentially

[00:38:20] still

[00:38:21] containing

[00:38:21] chemical

[00:38:22] weapons

[00:38:24] material

[00:38:25] potentially

[00:38:26] used

[00:38:27] with the

[00:38:27] potential

[00:38:28] to be

[00:38:28] used

[00:38:28] to create

[00:38:29] dirty

[00:38:29] bombs

[00:38:30] and all

[00:38:30] that

[00:38:31] when I

[00:38:31] interviewed

[00:38:32] a former

[00:38:32] terrorist

[00:38:33] in the

[00:38:34] streets

[00:38:34] of London

[00:38:35] actually

[00:38:36] Leighton

[00:38:37] this

[00:38:38] is what

[00:38:38] he said

[00:38:38] a number

[00:38:39] well

[00:38:40] it was

[00:38:41] a number

[00:38:41] years

[00:38:41] right

[00:38:42] but let

[00:38:42] paraphrase

[00:38:43] this

[00:38:45] said

[00:38:45] look

[00:38:47] something

[00:38:47] huge

[00:38:48] is going

[00:38:48] to happen

[00:38:49] in Syria

[00:38:49] we have

[00:38:50] to be

[00:38:50] very

[00:38:51] scared

[00:38:52] because

[00:38:53] potentially

[00:38:54] if the

[00:38:55] terrorists

[00:38:55] take

[00:38:56] terrorists

[00:38:56] take over

[00:38:56] nothing

[00:38:57] at least

[00:38:58] principle

[00:38:59] would

[00:38:59] prevent

[00:38:59] them

[00:39:00] from

[00:39:00] retrieving

[00:39:01] some

[00:39:01] very

[00:39:01] dangerous

[00:39:02] material

[00:39:03] assembling

[00:39:04] dirty

[00:39:04] bomb

[00:39:05] detonating

[00:39:06] that

[00:39:06] bomb

[00:39:06] in the

[00:39:06] streets

[00:39:07] London

[00:39:08] hopefully

[00:39:08] that is

[00:39:09] not going

[00:39:09] to happen

[00:39:10] hopefully

[00:39:10] there is

[00:39:10] not going

[00:39:11] we're not

[00:39:12] going to

[00:39:12] witness

[00:39:13] to that

[00:39:14] horrible

[00:39:14] scenario

[00:39:15] especially

[00:39:16] because

[00:39:16] at least

[00:39:17] in the

[00:39:17] short

[00:39:17] term

[00:39:25] actually

[00:39:27] back

[00:39:27] I don't

[00:39:28] want to

[00:39:28] boots

[00:39:28] on the

[00:39:29] ground

[00:39:29] definitely

[00:39:29] bomb

[00:39:30] them

[00:39:31] sobering

[00:39:32] thoughts

[00:39:32] about

[00:39:32] what

[00:39:33] could

[00:39:33] come

[00:39:33] absolutely

[00:39:34] and we

[00:39:34] need

[00:39:55] listeners

[00:39:55] thank

[00:39:56] everyone

[00:39:56] have

[00:39:57] a good

[00:39:57] it's

[00:39:57] a bit

[00:39:58] much

[00:39:58] isn't

[00:39:59] that

[00:39:59] they're

[00:39:59] going

[00:39:59] have

[00:40:00] democracy

[00:40:01] peace

[00:40:01] that

[00:40:02] city

[00:40:02] Damascus

[00:40:03] going

[00:40:04] welcoming

[00:40:04] tourists

[00:40:05] back

[00:40:06] maybe

[00:40:25] have

[00:40:26] historically

[00:40:27] anyway

[00:40:27] we're

[00:40:28] moving

[00:40:29] towards

[00:40:29] Christmas

[00:40:30] we're

[00:40:30] going

[00:40:30] talking

[00:40:30] about

[00:40:31] something

[00:40:32] next

[00:40:32] time

[00:40:32] it will

[00:40:33] we're

[00:40:34] going

[00:40:34] talking

[00:40:34] next

[00:40:35] time

[00:40:35] about

[00:40:35] something

[00:40:35] that does

[00:40:36] affect

[00:40:36] quite a lot

[00:40:36] of people

[00:40:36] at Christmas

[00:40:37] which is

[00:40:37] loneliness

[00:40:38] people

[00:40:38] living

[00:40:39] on their

[00:40:39] whether

[00:40:40] through

[00:40:40] choice

[00:40:40] or not

[00:40:42] feeling

[00:40:43] lonely

[00:40:43] feeling

[00:40:43] that they

[00:40:44] don't

[00:40:44] have

[00:40:44] connection

[00:40:45] with

[00:40:46] community

[00:40:47] there are

[00:40:55] loneliness

[00:40:56] has been

[00:40:57] described

[00:40:57] as a

[00:40:57] disease

[00:40:58] it's

[00:40:58] all down

[00:40:59] to the

[00:40:59] attitude

[00:40:59] it depends

[00:41:00] on whether

[00:41:00] you want

[00:41:01] to be

[00:41:01] lonely

[00:41:01] or not

[00:41:02] next

[00:41:02] week

[00:41:03] we're

[00:41:03] going to

[00:41:03] talk to

[00:41:03] somebody

[00:41:04] you might

[00:41:04] want to

[00:41:04] be on your

[00:41:04] but you

[00:41:05] might

[00:41:05] want to

[00:41:05] lonely

[00:41:06] well

[00:41:06] okay

[00:41:07] for sure

[00:41:07] there is

[00:41:08] a big

[00:41:08] difference

[00:41:08] obviously

[00:41:09] but we'll

[00:41:10] talk to

[00:41:10] somebody

[00:41:10] next

[00:41:10] week

[00:41:25] have