Blue Funk

[00:00:00] [SPEAKER_00]: The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Herring.

[00:00:30] [SPEAKER_02]: So which way will it go?

[00:00:31] [SPEAKER_02]: Can it ever regain power?

[00:00:33] [SPEAKER_00]: The Why Curve.

[00:00:36] [SPEAKER_03]: So yes, the Conservative Party on its uppers in pretty much every sense.

[00:00:41] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean they're an a desperate state and they don't look pretty.

[00:00:44] [SPEAKER_02]: No, but I read that there were positive vibes at the conference this week.

[00:00:48] [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's just like a conference and the gun out the house.

[00:00:51] [SPEAKER_02]: But you'd be thinking there's not a lot to be positive about wouldn't you?

[00:00:54] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, I mean it's the parade.

[00:00:55] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean it's rude thing to say with parade of grotesque.

[00:00:58] [SPEAKER_03]: So you're trying to lead them.

[00:01:00] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean it's just too big.

[00:01:02] [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I mean okay let's put it on the record neither of us are likely to be considered with voters anytime.

[00:01:07] [SPEAKER_03]: But he's so you look at these people and you think this is not a serious part.

[00:01:11] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's as though they are trying to out bad enough.

[00:01:14] [SPEAKER_02]: Actually even the names, I mean can't carry bad enough.

[00:01:18] [SPEAKER_02]: We could have to listen to them.

[00:01:19] [SPEAKER_02]: No, of course not.

[00:01:21] [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, yeah, I mean you know it's Roger here in I think you know what was the position.

[00:01:25] [SPEAKER_03]: What's there?

[00:01:27] [SPEAKER_03]: It's clearly an issue that they clearly are not in a position really snow the way forward.

[00:01:32] [SPEAKER_03]: And historically I'm if one does reflect and history doesn't repeat necessarily.

[00:01:36] [SPEAKER_03]: But after the blare thing of course they had a decade in the wills.

[00:01:40] [SPEAKER_03]: More than a decade.

[00:01:42] [SPEAKER_03]: In many cases by some pretty unimpressive people.

[00:01:45] [SPEAKER_03]: So that's maybe as well they condemn.

[00:01:47] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but they're again kissed armours. No Tony Blair is he.

[00:01:50] [SPEAKER_02]: But look, let's let's go far.

[00:01:52] [SPEAKER_02]: So let's look into this a bit more.

[00:01:53] [SPEAKER_03]: Have we got Tim bail professor politics at Queen Mary University Blunder?

[00:01:57] [SPEAKER_03]: All the rest of the book that can say a good party after Brexit.

[00:02:00] [SPEAKER_03]: Thermal and transformation.

[00:02:02] [SPEAKER_03]: And he joins us.

[00:02:02] [SPEAKER_02]: So Tim, the first question does anyone really care you know.

[00:02:07] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean it's the Tory party they've had their chance.

[00:02:10] [SPEAKER_02]: They're out for a while now they're going to get new leader.

[00:02:13] [SPEAKER_02]: Is that new leader actually going to be the leader that takes them to the next general election?

[00:02:16] [SPEAKER_02]: You know, I think it was very polite to people to turn up to hear.

[00:02:20] [SPEAKER_02]: Is she soon give a speech at the weekend?

[00:02:22] [SPEAKER_02]: But really not a lot of interest is there.

[00:02:24] [SPEAKER_01]: No, there isn't that much on the other hand.

[00:02:27] [SPEAKER_01]: I think if you'd ask that question on July the fifth you do got a very definitive answer.

[00:02:32] [SPEAKER_01]: People would have said absolutely no chance of the conservatives coming back at the next election.

[00:02:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Labour have come in with a massive majority there.

[00:02:40] [SPEAKER_01]: For four or five years they can look at delivering on some of the promises they made.

[00:02:45] [SPEAKER_01]: And then almost certainly make you back in again.

[00:02:47] [SPEAKER_01]: But I think given the stuff to ring start not to put to you find a point on it that the Labour party is made in government.

[00:02:54] [SPEAKER_01]: I think there are some people who think well given the volatility of the electorate,

[00:02:58] [SPEAKER_01]: which after all was in some ways responsible for Labour getting into government in the first place.

[00:03:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Then perhaps we shouldn't discount the conservatives completely.

[00:03:07] [SPEAKER_01]: And therefore this leadership election isn't I think completely and utterly irrelevant.

[00:03:12] [SPEAKER_03]: But then that's touching it's straws for them surely because in terms of the scale of what's happened.

[00:03:19] [SPEAKER_03]: Yes, you know Labour is tripping over a few things but they've got a very solid majority five years to go.

[00:03:26] [SPEAKER_03]: It's going to be hard for the Tory to really appear relevant.

[00:03:29] [SPEAKER_02]: Well we don't have much Labour party's kind of stuff up from now on either doing well, but yeah I suppose.

[00:03:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean that's true but then Labour of course suffered its worst defeat since 1935 back in 2019.

[00:03:40] [SPEAKER_01]: And here it is in government with huge majority and and as I say the volatility of the electorate these days,

[00:03:47] [SPEAKER_01]: the way that people are prepared to change their vote between one election and another.

[00:03:51] [SPEAKER_01]: And of course the way that Labour is also under attack in some ways not just from the conservators but from reform from the Greens and even to a,

[00:04:00] [SPEAKER_01]: like let's say from the Liberal Democrats suggest that actually the next election isn't completely so not for them.

[00:04:07] [SPEAKER_01]: So I do think that there is a danger obviously of complacency among the conservators because it was happened to Labour over the last few weeks,

[00:04:15] [SPEAKER_01]: but on the other hand I don't think they should give up completely.

[00:04:18] [SPEAKER_03]: What are they going to do?

[00:04:19] [SPEAKER_03]: Which direction are they going to go?

[00:04:20] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean we're just in response to this.

[00:04:22] [SPEAKER_03]: What can these how can they shape the party?

[00:04:24] [SPEAKER_03]: Because that's the problem no one really knows I guess now what the conservators stands for.

[00:04:28] [SPEAKER_02]: Well it's a pretty thing to be going more right don't they?

[00:04:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Just looking at the speeches have had this week.

[00:04:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Well I mean I think if you look at the leadership candidates clearly all of them are essentially factorites and a couple of them clearly are real culture warriors as well.

[00:04:45] [SPEAKER_01]: James cleverly isn't quite in that mode although he is a confirmed Brexit here to gunhardt.

[00:04:49] [SPEAKER_01]: I think he has seen his slightly more centrist but it's all relative obviously.

[00:04:54] [SPEAKER_01]: It does seem as if the Conservative party perhaps not surprisingly given the trajectory has been on since Brexit really.

[00:05:00] [SPEAKER_01]: It does seem to be more worried about the threat posed to it by Nigel Farage than it seems to be worried about the threat posed to it either by Keistama or by a Davies liberal democrat.

[00:05:11] [SPEAKER_01]: And I think that could push them further towards a kind of populist radical rights strategy in order, you know, first of all at least has so cups on with the supporters that they lost to reform.

[00:05:22] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure that's a great idea though because some of the polling that's coming out on those reform voters suggest that they are actually going to be quite difficult to get back and in some ways.

[00:05:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Those who floated off to the Liberal Democrats and to a certain extent labor as well might be a better target for the Conservatives but they are to the point of obsession.

[00:05:39] [SPEAKER_01]: I think very much more concerned with the voters they lost to reform.

[00:05:42] [SPEAKER_02]: It does seem to be all about immigration doesn't it?

[00:05:45] [SPEAKER_02]: And that has been obviously Nigel Farage's territory for a long time and the trip party have struggled with this really since before we had the Brexit vote.

[00:05:55] [SPEAKER_02]: They haven't learned that just in the same place getting worse for them when are they going to learn?

[00:06:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean I think you make a very good point it's easy to say that it's in Brexit that they've had this obsession with immigration but you know those with longer memories can go back to you know before the 2010 election when they become very wisely or sorry unwisely promising.

[00:06:14] [SPEAKER_01]: You know get to net migration down to the tens of thousands from the hundreds of thousands and I think the failure to do that despite talking up that target time and time again is a big reason why the Conservatives are so distrusted on that issue and actually why reform and before them you keep in the Brexit party have done so well over the years.

[00:06:35] [SPEAKER_01]: And yet you know as you suggest they don't really seem to have learned from that lesson.

[00:06:42] [SPEAKER_01]: You have Robert Jenrick in the conference of before that saying the immigration is absolutely crucial and as part of that he's saying you know unless the Conservative government of the next Conservative government if there is one leaves the European court on human rights it will die.

[00:06:59] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean it really is I think at indication probably when we look at the leadership contest anyway of the leaders not just not learning from the past but also actually reflecting concerns about the voters they've lost to reform who clearly if the polls or anything to go by are obsessed with that in that issue immigration.

[00:07:21] [SPEAKER_01]: And of course Conservative party members who who see it as far far more important than the voters do you know when it comes for example to the NHS or to the economy etc.

[00:07:35] [SPEAKER_02]: That's much more important to voters than immigration that's not the same equation is an important but it's not the be all an end all no and yet it does seem to be now just a party that has only has one policy and what else to think of what else to they stand for now.

[00:07:48] [SPEAKER_03]: Well it is actually a culture was thing really to that that actually what we've seen is a transformation of that group on the right from the old notherms of Tory politics in the past to one or two things but overwhelmingly all kinds of other things around in the culture area gender issues for example.

[00:08:05] [SPEAKER_03]: Law and all of those kind of things but in a way a shift in terms of culture more to a populist agenda.

[00:08:10] [SPEAKER_01]: I think you're right we can't see immigration in isolation and I do think it's very clear that in some ways these part of this culture or package because of to parties sought to offer the electorate.

[00:08:23] [SPEAKER_01]: Both in 2019 and in 2020 you fall and of course part of that same package that the leadership contenders offered.

[00:08:31] [SPEAKER_01]: During the conference and you know will offer members as that M contest goes on I think the Conservative party really has slid from being a kind of mainstream centre right out for two or kind of ASAT's pop-inist radical right party.

[00:08:45] [SPEAKER_01]: As I say in the search really for those voters it seems to be losing to reform the problem is there is a trade off and I think that's something that you've in some ways hinted at.

[00:08:55] [SPEAKER_01]: The more you bang on to use that phrase about those particular issues the more likely you are to put off some of the voters that you've lost to the Liberal Democrats and indeed to some extent to the Labour party as well.

[00:09:08] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not sure it's a trade off worth making particularly when you look at demographics and the Conservative party's voters already quite old as is their membership those people are much more concerned about those kinds of issues than younger people.

[00:09:21] [SPEAKER_01]: And if the Conservative party needs you know wants to get back into government it needs the votes of younger people and when we're talking about younger people also actually to be honest talking about some fairly middle-aged people as well.

[00:09:34] [SPEAKER_01]: I just don't think there is a future in that kind of culture war it might go down well with the membership it might go down well with you know what I call the Conservative party in the media in other words the you know Tory supporting press GB news.

[00:09:50] [SPEAKER_01]: But you know they are not a reflection of the British public perhaps they could have claimed to be when they were selling millions and millions of copies but you know that just isn't happening now and I'm clear they've got on online presence but if you look at the audiences to whom they appeal.

[00:10:05] [SPEAKER_01]: And they are the audiences that are either fritting off to reform and won't come back or a voting Conservative anyway then not the audiences that the Conservatives need to appeal to in order to get back into government.

[00:10:15] [SPEAKER_02]: Well that age where people are more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is now 60 isn't it?

[00:10:32] [SPEAKER_01]: You know one reason why you know seems it seems as if public opinion is tipping towards seeing Brexit as a bad idea and even tipping towards rejoining.

[00:10:43] [SPEAKER_01]: It's simply because many of those who voted for Brexit back in 2016 voted Conservative in 2019 have quite literally departed the electorate because they have departed this life.

[00:10:53] [SPEAKER_01]: And more and more of those people are going to go the same way and then not going to be replaced I fear you know for the Conservatives with people of like mind so they have to think about how they're going to appeal.

[00:11:06] [SPEAKER_01]: To people for whom you know this culture war stuff is just a new relevance as far as they're concerned.

[00:11:10] [SPEAKER_03]: And they pick up on that because one of the interesting things I thought over the last three or four years as well is that if you look at the front bench of the poor is in government and now in opposition.

[00:11:19] [SPEAKER_03]: It actually looks rather more diverse in some ways younger perhaps than what you're seeing.

[00:11:25] [SPEAKER_03]: In the government I mean can he be a young like woman is a viable contender for the leader because everybody's party and that doesn't fit the party.

[00:11:32] [SPEAKER_02]: Not a festive opinion though is it just demy dive.

[00:11:35] [SPEAKER_03]: That's the win Mr. Bidgen.

[00:11:37] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean I think that has something to do partly with the way that the Conservatives tend to get ethnic minority MPs into Parliament they tend to parachute them into very very safe seats very often you know big white majority seats actually.

[00:11:54] [SPEAKER_01]: So those ethnic minority members of the Conservative Parliamentary party don't necessarily need to reflect the views if you like a ethnic minorities across the country.

[00:12:05] [SPEAKER_01]: They're appealing to a very different kind of constituency so I think that's one thing the other thing to say is that actually if you look down the pyramid if you like of the Conservative party.

[00:12:15] [SPEAKER_01]: There are quite a few people of color at the top but as you go down there are a few and fewer and when you get to the membership we are really talking about a party that is about 98% white so I think you know they can give the kind of visual impression that they're looking more and more like the you know British society today but I think in reality that's not the case.

[00:12:39] [SPEAKER_02]: They're just talking about a bit tokenism but also interestingly very often and I see this replicating many parts of the world.

[00:12:47] [SPEAKER_02]: The people who are the most radical when it comes to demigration are migrants themselves or at least the sons and daughters of migrants so we're almost like well we're here and I close the door.

[00:12:55] [SPEAKER_02]: We don't want more people like us coming in.

[00:12:57] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah that has been a little of that perhaps and I think it is also the case the critics of the Conservative party was say that those ethnic minority members are used as it were as a kind of a.

[00:13:09] [SPEAKER_01]: Reputational shields when they're trying to defend themselves against accusations that their you know very hard line immigration policy.

[00:13:17] [SPEAKER_01]: Is racist it's very difficult actually obviously to criticize you know a person of color for being racist but you know some people on the more liberal side of the immigration debate I think you know would make that argument about conservative policy.

[00:13:31] [SPEAKER_02]: So this is a more radical party than it was you know during Margaret Thatcher's time which I think it is and yet everyone in the in the Tory party treats Margaret Thatcher as the Messiah.

[00:13:42] [SPEAKER_02]: What would she think if she was actually in the party today would she actually be strangely the moderating influence?

[00:13:48] [SPEAKER_01]: Well I think that's a really great question.

[00:13:50] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean I think you know if we talk about Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister I think that's probably the case if we're talking about Margaret Thatcher after she left down in Street

[00:13:58] [SPEAKER_01]: And gradually became even more radical you know by the end of you know her a sort of political life in some ways, you know she wanted to get out of the European Union etc etc.

[00:14:09] [SPEAKER_01]: Those hosting dictators that sort of thing.

[00:14:12] [SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, that was that was in power.

[00:14:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean I think you know she was a much more cautious and county politician as you're hinting then people give her credit for and I think you know she probably would have realized that you know the road they're going down now

[00:14:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Might not be the best one might even end up as a colder sack as it were.

[00:14:33] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean I think one of the problems for the Conservatives as far as Margaret Thatcher is concerned I mean you'll write that they see her as an icon, but unfortunately they've got completely come stuck on her and don't really seem to know how to roll the revolution forward apart from cutting tax even more cutting spending even more

[00:14:52] [SPEAKER_01]: You know creating an even smaller state than the one that she left them with and to be honest that's not really where the public is particularly I think on public services and one of the reasons that the Conservatives lost the election so badly was clearly because of the crumbling state of the National Health Service schools etc etc

[00:15:11] [SPEAKER_01]: And while they start call this you know very small states of Uber facturite

[00:15:18] [SPEAKER_01]: You know ideology I think it makes it very difficult for them to actually respond to public demand.

[00:15:23] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean we're looking at Margaret Thatcher in that way she was obviously first leader in opposition she led the party to 1799 they're not going to get a sense of back but does he actually matter who wins the current contest which is you know turning into quite a vicious battle

[00:15:39] [SPEAKER_03]: We're actually making difference to the future that's already part of you. Is this in a way what happened after I guess that defeat by

[00:15:45] [SPEAKER_03]: Tony Blair and the late 90s where they just have a whole series of people who are that impressive and they have to wait a long time for things to turn around

[00:15:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it would make a difference if there was someone going for the leadership at the moment who was prepared to tell the party what it needs to hear rather than what it wants to hear

[00:16:03] [SPEAKER_01]: I fear that you know none of the candidates are actually in that position they seem to really want to appeal to the members existing prejudices if you want to call that rather than actually

[00:16:15] [SPEAKER_01]: Doing as David Cameron did saying, you know we need to change we need to modernise we need to look more like

[00:16:20] [SPEAKER_01]: You know Britain we need to some extent to be a little bit more progressive and a little bit more liberal. We need to think more about

[00:16:28] [SPEAKER_01]: You know how we fund and support public services how you know private isn't always the best way to go

[00:16:36] [SPEAKER_01]: How fature was you know great for her time, but you know wasn't necessarily a guy to what we needed to do now

[00:16:42] [SPEAKER_01]: But there's nobody at the moment who's arguing that now of course

[00:16:47] [SPEAKER_01]: There may be someone who's just come into Parliament who may be prepared to do that after a couple of election losses

[00:16:53] [SPEAKER_01]: But you're right the pattern very often is in British politics and we've seen this with a Labour party as well as a conservative party

[00:16:59] [SPEAKER_01]: You lose you double down you lose again, maybe even lose again after that

[00:17:04] [SPEAKER_01]: And then eventually you get the message and begin to move back towards you know what most people would see is the kind of center ground of British politics

[00:17:11] [SPEAKER_02]: So are they becoming the new nasty party

[00:17:14] [SPEAKER_02]: You know are they going back to that? I mean can he bad luck early in the week saying the turnity leave has gone too far and then of course you try to qualify that by saying actually

[00:17:22] [SPEAKER_02]: What she meant to say was that well maternity leave had gone too far

[00:17:28] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm not I'm not I'm not kidding. I think she'd actually clear that out didn't it but I mean this whole thing about well, you know, let's take money from people

[00:17:34] [SPEAKER_02]: Let's be you know, let's be mean you know, basically in terms of how much we spend but also how we treat people coming into the country

[00:17:43] [SPEAKER_02]: It's it's all nasty stuff that seems to be what they think is the vote winner

[00:17:47] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it's very interesting because they're one person who's kicked back again some of the stuff that the leadership contenders are saying and the way the party's going is in fact

[00:17:54] [SPEAKER_01]: Theresa May who was the person who coined that phrase you know being seen as the nasty party right back you know before David Cameron said in the hostile

[00:18:02] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean yeah, I mean I think there is a risk there is a risk of that

[00:18:06] [SPEAKER_01]: You know being seen as you know pro austerity all the time small state and you know rather negatively in their attitude towards

[00:18:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Immigration and anyone coming through and I do think actually you know given the fury around can be beaten all three marks around

[00:18:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Maternity pay that perhaps people should have paid a little bit more attention to the some of the stuff that she was saying about particular cultures

[00:18:30] [SPEAKER_01]: You know being less valued than others although interesting me she wasn't prepared to name which one she was talking about

[00:18:37] [SPEAKER_03]: But it coming to your point until that's the moment where someone who looks and sounds like can be made not can say that

[00:18:44] [SPEAKER_03]: I can't imagine anyone else really across the world's spectrum who be allowed to sit in the mainstream

[00:18:48] [SPEAKER_01]: No it would be pretty difficult I think for for anyone else to say that

[00:18:52] [SPEAKER_01]: But that is you know very much a kind of dog whistle although you know some people would say it's more a folk horn and two

[00:19:01] [SPEAKER_01]: You know people who have deserted the conservative party for reform

[00:19:06] [SPEAKER_01]: You know there's this question I think for the conservative party about what they do about Nigel for our reform

[00:19:12] [SPEAKER_01]: But it can't become their obsession to the point where they forget that actually most voters are more concerned with you know

[00:19:18] [SPEAKER_01]: What you might call bread and butter issues public services, you know economic growth real wages etc.

[00:19:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Probably the conservative party needs to get back if you like to becoming if you like more of a just economic party

[00:19:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Then a culture party but at the moment it seems very stuck in this culture group

[00:19:35] [SPEAKER_02]: Well, they never talk about economics it seems

[00:19:37] [SPEAKER_02]: You know alternative approaches to for example taxation

[00:19:41] [SPEAKER_02]: So what I found interesting is that you know there was one person who said that that income tax

[00:19:47] [SPEAKER_02]: You're going to be the same as your passive income as well

[00:19:52] [SPEAKER_02]: You know should get tax so capital gains should be taxed at the same as your income tax that was my good

[00:19:57] [SPEAKER_02]: That would be yeah that would be seen as you know almost socialism in this day and age

[00:20:04] [SPEAKER_02]: And yet it's stuff like that that quietly gets forgotten about doesn't it?

[00:20:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean I think they have got a problem or economic policy in the sense that they are so wedded to their vested interest

[00:20:14] [SPEAKER_01]: In particular I think you know pensioners that they come out with stuff that is really in some ways inconsistent with other parts of their ideology

[00:20:24] [SPEAKER_01]: So for example on their you know booths winter fuel payments

[00:20:27] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean conservative should want to means test those

[00:20:32] [SPEAKER_01]: Payments you know conservatives generally speaking don't believe in universalism and believe only in you know targeting help to people who really really need it

[00:20:40] [SPEAKER_01]: And yet you know they're being quite opportunistic you know going for labor on that particular issues

[00:20:45] [SPEAKER_01]: So they have got a problem there and more widely I think they are so obsessed with defending the interests of the homeowner

[00:20:53] [SPEAKER_01]: That you know they're they're they find it very difficult to build more houses

[00:20:57] [SPEAKER_01]: And we saw that you know under the conservative government but also to think about how we might switch taxation as you're suggesting really from you know work

[00:21:06] [SPEAKER_01]: To people's passive income from property and and well fit there must be a constituency for on the right

[00:21:14] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean if you think of historically obviously it was work as worse as the boss is all that but then moving further for

[00:21:20] [SPEAKER_03]: You have people in the city people with money but whose views are perhaps early liberal

[00:21:26] [SPEAKER_03]: In other ways I mean that traditionally has been where the conservative sits and that constituency is a has money

[00:21:34] [SPEAKER_03]: But money into parties that reflect is that not where the future of the Tory is must life well I think I think you know they need to be careful

[00:21:43] [SPEAKER_01]: They don't go too far wrong if you like the fact right he can always

[00:21:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Road because the constituency for that is quite small particularly if you're talking about you know privatizing the NHS for example

[00:21:55] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm in that and that would not be the way to go

[00:21:58] [SPEAKER_01]: But I think you're right you pointed to something that I think has

[00:22:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Lane behind how well the liberal Democrats have done at this election in other words, you know

[00:22:08] [SPEAKER_01]: They need to be able to appeal to people who are fairly comfortably off but have actually quite liberal quite progressive views now

[00:22:16] [SPEAKER_01]: That's partly because so many of them now go to university and therefore to some extent you know pick up that the kind of liberalism has graduates

[00:22:26] [SPEAKER_01]: But it's also because there's always been as you suggested a constituency there who doesn't really buy into this very nationalistic

[00:22:35] [SPEAKER_01]: You know very in some senses gingoistic policy that the conservatives you know sometimes come up with all the other hand

[00:22:44] [SPEAKER_01]: I think you know the genius of conservatism was to marry that constituency

[00:22:49] [SPEAKER_01]: Together with you know say a third of working class voters who you know do see themselves as quite patriotic

[00:22:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But see themselves as quite aspirational as well and it's it's really you know needing to kind of put together that classic

[00:23:02] [SPEAKER_01]: Conservative voter coalition again

[00:23:05] [SPEAKER_01]: I think personally they've oversholts on the kind of culture war stuff thinking more about the sort of the second part of that coalition

[00:23:13] [SPEAKER_02]: Unless about the first part, which is the part you were referring to and they didn't get wet enough during the election campaign

[00:23:19] [SPEAKER_02]: They weren't falling off surfboards and stuff like that. So you know they're missing an opportunity there

[00:23:24] [SPEAKER_01]: I think they need to get wet ideologically but

[00:23:26] [SPEAKER_02]: Yes, they're really much good now feeding that line to you

[00:23:29] [SPEAKER_02]: So is there

[00:23:31] [SPEAKER_02]: Is there danger that they will they will lose support not just from the electorate but also from

[00:23:36] [SPEAKER_02]: Party donors. I mean, that's I mean if they haven't got money to fight the next election

[00:23:40] [SPEAKER_01]: That's a real problem. Well, I mean, I think one problem for the Conservative party

[00:23:44] [SPEAKER_01]: And yeah, it's one that they've suffered from before is that when they get short of a kind of broad base of donors

[00:23:50] [SPEAKER_01]: They tend to have to rely on one, two, three, four very very rich people with occasionally some very rich points of view

[00:24:00] [SPEAKER_01]: You know we we've seen for example that they've had to keep the donations from Frank Hester

[00:24:05] [SPEAKER_01]: This guy who says some pretty unpleasant things about Diane Abbard simply because actually you know the money's not there

[00:24:13] [SPEAKER_01]: They do need to create a much broader base of donors

[00:24:16] [SPEAKER_01]: I think this is something that they're aware they need to do and that might come partly from trying to recruit more members

[00:24:23] [SPEAKER_01]: But again, they've got a bit of a membership crisis as well

[00:24:27] [SPEAKER_01]: We don't know how many party members they've actually got right now

[00:24:30] [SPEAKER_01]: One of the good things for researchers about the leadership campaigns is that in the end they end up the contest

[00:24:36] [SPEAKER_01]: And we get to see how many members actually do exist within the Conservative party

[00:24:40] [SPEAKER_01]: But the other problem they got from some research we did in the summer, surveying party members

[00:24:46] [SPEAKER_01]: They have not got very active members either

[00:24:50] [SPEAKER_01]: So that obviously reflects on what they can do with elections

[00:24:54] [SPEAKER_01]: But it's probably also means that they don't get as many donations from their members as might otherwise be the case

[00:25:00] [SPEAKER_03]: But Tim, is it possible with following maybe the trend across the Atlantic where the Trumpites are put together

[00:25:07] [SPEAKER_03]: A coalition of big money often at a tech money that will follow the P to T the Teals

[00:25:14] [SPEAKER_03]: Obviously, you know the Elon Musk's putting together something that then follows along a very popular line

[00:25:21] [SPEAKER_03]: And that appeals across a very wide sway, perhaps not the richest or best educated people

[00:25:26] [SPEAKER_03]: And that is a viable election winner, could that happen here?

[00:25:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Well I think it's a viable election winner here, a much more polarised society like the United States

[00:25:35] [SPEAKER_01]: But I think although we often worry about polarization in this country, it's nowhere near as pronounced as it is across the pond

[00:25:42] [SPEAKER_01]: And I think that has partly to do with the role of religion

[00:25:46] [SPEAKER_01]: Which is simply not as important that here as it is over there

[00:25:50] [SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, I think it's a viable strategy perhaps for Trump will see

[00:25:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But I'm not sure it's a viable strategy for the Conservative party

[00:25:58] [SPEAKER_01]: But then you know your question speaks to one of the problems for the Conservative parties that he is so incredibly

[00:26:05] [SPEAKER_01]: Anglos-spirig, you know most Conservative party politicians

[00:26:10] [SPEAKER_01]: No an awful lot, perhaps too much about US politics, maybe even Australian politics and who knows even New Zealand politics

[00:26:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Speaking as someone who got dual keywee in nationality

[00:26:19] [SPEAKER_01]: But they don't really, I think follow what happens in other parties in other parts of the world

[00:26:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Which sometimes might hatch the T-Shama-Fuble-Valible lessons

[00:26:29] [SPEAKER_02]: Right, I don't know where the moment you start calling us bro, you've gone far too keywee

[00:26:35] [SPEAKER_02]: So where does the Tory party end up then?

[00:26:38] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, is there a chance that they will just, we're close to the end of the line for the Tories?

[00:26:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I'm always skeptical about that.

[00:26:45] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, like you, you know over the years I've heard both Labour and Conservative party been written off

[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_01]: You know this is the last time that I've been being government and so try, I don't buy that

[00:26:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Partly because of the first past the post system, I think tends to act as a bit of a break

[00:27:02] [SPEAKER_01]: If you like on fragmentation of our party system although having said that obviously

[00:27:06] [SPEAKER_01]: One of the things that emerges from the 2020-04 election is that, you know, the two parties are nowhere near as dominant as they once were

[00:27:14] [SPEAKER_01]: Now we said that as well interestingly in 2015 and so excited 2017 but then come back to 2019

[00:27:22] [SPEAKER_01]: And the two main parties did really really well

[00:27:27] [SPEAKER_01]: So sorry 2017 and 2019 did really well so I need a reluctant I think to write them off right now

[00:27:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Normally you know the Conservative party does eventually, you know, dust itself off

[00:27:41] [SPEAKER_01]: And start all over again and I think that's likely to happen this time around but I think it's a question of when

[00:27:48] [SPEAKER_02]: When do they realise that they'll get nowhere if they try and occupy the same ground as Nigel Farage

[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_02]: Which is what's happening now because if you want to vote for Nigel Farage, you vote for Nigel Farage

[00:27:58] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah and this goes back to something that Jean-Mahé Loupaine, you know of the Frenassian al-Om France one

[00:28:04] [SPEAKER_01]: So people prefer the original to the copy and I'm afraid that is the case with the reform and Nigel Farage

[00:28:11] [SPEAKER_01]: And there's also a kind of deeper question about how mainstream right parties respond anyway to the far right

[00:28:17] [SPEAKER_01]: You know they do tend to try and ape, you know their policies but all that does is just increase the salience of those policies

[00:28:25] [SPEAKER_01]: And allows a politician like Nigel Farage and other political entrepreneurs on the far right to just up the ante

[00:28:33] [SPEAKER_01]: And in the end they can always say something that no kind of self-respecting mainstream Conservative party can actually copy

[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_03]: And he's origin in from far argy's origin obviously in breaks it breaks it being a defining thing and your book to you know you talk about it

[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_03]: By the after a break so you see it obviously is a vassian issue still is it something that is still hanging around that

[00:28:54] [SPEAKER_03]: So is it something that still is going to be a psyched arm of for the future because they've had it

[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_03]: It doesn't really most people would say work to anyone to vart it even for argy's as that is it going to be the old patrols round their next for another decade

[00:29:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I mean it's interesting when you look at surveys, you know both during the election and after it doesn't seem to have played much of a role there

[00:29:16] [SPEAKER_01]: And yet many people are dissatisfied with the way it's gone the other interesting thing about the survey research is actually that those brexit identities remain and leave are still quite strong

[00:29:28] [SPEAKER_01]: The problem for the Conservative party is that they're not strong enough to hold people into the Conservative coalition when things are going bad before the economy or public services

[00:29:39] [SPEAKER_01]: So I think you know if they were to rely on those brexit identities and to certainly try to mobilize them via those cultural war issues

[00:29:48] [SPEAKER_01]: That's not going to work if and I guess this is a big if the Labour government can actually deliver one improvements to public services and get growth going against

[00:29:58] [SPEAKER_02]: That big questions it because I think we're going to go to the next election and the big issues are going to be migrations too high house price affordability has got worse

[00:30:07] [SPEAKER_02]: The health services and coping were aging population it's getting worse the wealth divide is becoming more pronounced young people are getting deeper into debt

[00:30:14] [SPEAKER_02]: And you know you either say well, okay, we've got to tackle all of those things head on or you go yes all of those things have been caused by migration

[00:30:20] [SPEAKER_02]: If we cut down migration then we'll solve all the other problems, but no one really believes that but maybe the Tory party still thinks that they can pull pull that all over people's eyes with the argument

[00:30:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean I think the danger of that you know rather bleaks and I worry everybody painted there

[00:30:34] [SPEAKER_02]: Somebody's something it's happening. Yeah, everybody has everything that's by those things all get worse

[00:30:38] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean I think the danger of that is people think the Conservatives have failed labour of failed

[00:30:44] [SPEAKER_01]: You know, let's give something more radical a try and that's when I think Nigel Farage may well be able to capitalize on on what's gone on and if you look at the results

[00:30:52] [SPEAKER_02]: He's going to privatise the health services

[00:30:54] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, yeah, I mean he's got a problem there. He's going to have to do something about the the more sort of out there

[00:31:01] [SPEAKER_01]: That's right instincts of some of his party members and particularly a couple of his MPs I think

[00:31:07] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, well, yeah, he's all about yeah, he's he's pretty good at disguising his own opinions and changing his opinions in a way he needs to do so I wouldn't be surprised

[00:31:15] [SPEAKER_01]: He could do that but I mean I think you know if we look at how far right parties are done quite well in some other countries or stripping the you know

[00:31:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously example this week

[00:31:25] [SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's when the two main parties are seen to fail to tackle

[00:31:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Questions right across the board not just immigration actually, but you know a whole series of questions and at that point people who aren't necessarily

[00:31:39] [SPEAKER_01]: You know particularly right wing in their views

[00:31:42] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm sorry, not necessarily racist either

[00:31:44] [SPEAKER_02]: Give them a try just because you know they desperate for something to change and whoever wins

[00:31:49] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean some people would have been saying until this week

[00:31:51] [SPEAKER_02]: Then maybe generic would be the winner

[00:31:53] [SPEAKER_02]: But maybe not now with his claims about the army so whoever wins

[00:31:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Are they going to be the leader come the next election to think

[00:32:01] [SPEAKER_03]: Raj in fact by that

[00:32:03] [SPEAKER_01]: Well, stranger things have happened. I mean I I think he'd have to do something about his reputation

[00:32:11] [SPEAKER_01]: With the public if you look at what happens when you ask people about him in focus groups

[00:32:16] [SPEAKER_01]: It's not particularly hopeful for him and I think he probably will take the conservative party in a direction

[00:32:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Which means they're less selectable

[00:32:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Then they are now and that's saying something

[00:32:27] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh

[00:32:28] [SPEAKER_01]: You don't think there's any way they're going to win the next election by the sense of it. Oh well, I mean you know coming back something you said it partly depends on on Labour

[00:32:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Right, I mean if Labour carries on the way it's done over the last month

[00:32:41] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, 20 25 but I would have thought that it will get his act together and I think he

[00:32:48] [SPEAKER_01]: These absolutely determined to deliver

[00:32:51] [SPEAKER_01]: Particularly on the health service. I think to be honest immigration numbers will go down because

[00:32:57] [SPEAKER_01]: The Hong Kongers and the Ukrainians will come out of those numbers so it will look

[00:33:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Quite artificially as if it's managed to do something about immigration

[00:33:05] [SPEAKER_01]: I guess it you know will spend some money you know fitting pot holes

[00:33:08] [SPEAKER_01]: by 20 28 20 29. I think if Labour can

[00:33:13] [SPEAKER_01]: You know deliver tangible improvements

[00:33:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Real wages are going up. I think it's going to be difficult for the conservative party whoever they're

[00:33:20] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm one maybe the pot holes is the one to focus on Tim we leave it there because we all have to go and get on to

[00:33:25] [SPEAKER_02]: the opposite of the conservative party after Brexit turmoil and transformation which is

[00:33:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Which is your book? It's good to tell we can't you can see thanks a lot. Thanks to them

[00:33:34] [SPEAKER_02]: Now one of those places apart from you know British politics keep on returning to but we're going to

[00:33:39] [SPEAKER_02]: Can't ignore it this week can we only we'll talk about it next week is the situation in the middle

[00:33:43] [SPEAKER_02]: It's just how far is it going to go I mean that things have happened

[00:33:46] [SPEAKER_03]: I mean I like I've been an involved in there I work there even into the head of his ballart

[00:33:51] [SPEAKER_03]: He's now been killed by the Israeli I've never seen a situation like this. He sees a really

[00:33:55] [SPEAKER_03]: E-box changing is a spec in terms of its impact like not in a good way from those everywhere when I suspect

[00:34:02] [SPEAKER_03]: And there's going to be I fear a lot more bloodshed because it's hard to see how the

[00:34:06] [SPEAKER_03]: How the Israelis can be stopped at the moment they're biggest ally the US doesn't seem in any appetite to

[00:34:12] [SPEAKER_03]: Real pressure on it'll say a few things and what will they run to where will Iran go?

[00:34:18] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean they've done it this week of course, but they are leading all their proxies as well

[00:34:23] [SPEAKER_02]: So and we're going to see Israel responded seems and maybe Iran can't go anymore

[00:34:27] [SPEAKER_02]: Maybe actually then have that capability to respond anymore to Israel

[00:34:32] [SPEAKER_03]: Well, it's possible we just don't know what we do know is that there's a lot of tension around so you know

[00:34:37] [SPEAKER_03]: One of the reasons the matters is the Middle East has a huge effect on the blade trade of course

[00:34:41] [SPEAKER_03]: And global politics you know these things can reach the streets of London

[00:34:44] [SPEAKER_03]: The streets of Europe streets of the US quite easily if you have very angry people who feel that they have been frustrated

[00:34:51] [SPEAKER_03]: And what they're doing I you know hard to

[00:34:54] [SPEAKER_03]: Difficult and probably unwise to suggest that but it could and I think we need to try and understand what the moving parts all mean

[00:35:01] [SPEAKER_03]: And what are the prospects?

[00:35:02] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, for example, how strong was the support for his belong in that will be very little saying well actually were quite

[00:35:09] [SPEAKER_02]: Glad you know to see I go

[00:35:11] [SPEAKER_02]: So we'll look at all the all the moving parts in all of this next week on the white care journalists for that. Thanks for joining us today

[00:35:17] [SPEAKER_02]: We'll see you next week

[00:35:20] [SPEAKER_00]: The why