Harris v Trump - What To Expect

[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Heery.

[00:00:03] A campaign like no other.

[00:00:05] The US presidential election of 2024 has had an attempted assassination,

[00:00:09] the criminal conviction of one of the candidates,

[00:00:12] and now the withdrawal of the other due to old age.

[00:00:14] And there are still three months to go.

[00:00:16] So how is all this playing on voters' minds?

[00:00:19] Especially in the handful of swing states that actually decide the outcome.

[00:00:22] It's Kamala versus the Donald.

[00:00:25] Can a youngish woman of colour defeat an old, misogynist former president

[00:00:29] now widely seen by his supporters as a God-chosen saviour.

[00:00:33] And how much does the outside world need to worry about

[00:00:35] who's on offer to occupy the White House next year?

[00:00:38] The Why Curve.

[00:00:41] So, I mean, there's a lot of questions around this, aren't there?

[00:00:44] Oh yes.

[00:00:44] I mean, the key one is, is she going to be successful, I guess?

[00:00:48] What's she going to do? What's she going to pull out of the hat?

[00:00:50] Well, it's not absolutely certain she's going to be the candidate.

[00:00:52] It's pretty clear, but it's not absolutely certain

[00:00:54] because this hasn't really happened before.

[00:00:56] Yeah.

[00:00:57] We are in very unusual terms.

[00:00:58] We fail to be surprised by anything now.

[00:01:00] It is a very strange situation.

[00:01:03] Yeah.

[00:01:03] So anyway, but you've got someone who, I mean, if you look at the optics,

[00:01:07] at least a youngish woman of colour.

[00:01:09] Yeah.

[00:01:10] She's 60.

[00:01:11] Oh, that's young, I guess.

[00:01:12] Yeah.

[00:01:12] Very young, isn't it?

[00:01:15] But compared to him, he's 78.

[00:01:17] He will be, if he's elected, the oldest president ever to take office.

[00:01:22] Yeah.

[00:01:23] And Joe Biden, obviously, how, so to take office.

[00:01:27] Yeah, that's right.

[00:01:28] Yeah.

[00:01:28] Yeah.

[00:01:28] Joe Biden would have been if he, you know, if he carried on.

[00:01:30] Oh yeah, absolutely.

[00:01:31] Absolutely.

[00:01:31] So why did Joe Biden hang on so long?

[00:01:33] That is the curious thing.

[00:01:34] Well.

[00:01:34] And then the question about, you know, well, if he's, if he's not fit to stand, why is

[00:01:38] he fit to be president for the next six months?

[00:01:39] Well, yeah, I mean, there are differences maybe in that.

[00:01:41] It's not so much that he's not fit to stand as he doesn't think he's the right person to

[00:01:45] go forward.

[00:01:46] I think that's the way he put it.

[00:01:47] Yeah.

[00:01:48] Well, he was convinced.

[00:01:49] A lot of it's going to come down to tactics because in the end, if you've got someone like

[00:01:52] Donald Trump, I mean, now you can almost see the halo around his head in Republican

[00:01:56] terms.

[00:01:56] Yeah.

[00:01:57] This is a man who missed death by millimeters because of God, because of God.

[00:02:01] So therefore he is the anointed one.

[00:02:03] He must return.

[00:02:04] You know, I mean, it's so full of that sort of was very sad.

[00:02:07] Wasn't it?

[00:02:08] You saw him speaking at a rally and all those people who put bandages on the side of their

[00:02:11] head.

[00:02:12] It's like, you know, people going to a pop concert dressing is all going to a football game

[00:02:17] and dressing as your, you know, in your, in your team colors.

[00:02:20] And they do.

[00:02:21] It's the same stuff, isn't it?

[00:02:23] Yes.

[00:02:23] But this is politics.

[00:02:24] I don't know.

[00:02:25] Well, in America, politics is much more like sport.

[00:02:29] Well, in a way.

[00:02:29] Yeah.

[00:02:30] Yeah.

[00:02:30] So what is she going to do then?

[00:02:32] If he's the anointed one, what can she do in the, in the space of just a few months

[00:02:36] to say, cause it's got to be a quick message.

[00:02:38] He is.

[00:02:39] Well, I was chosen by God and also I'm going to create jobs for Americans.

[00:02:42] What do you know?

[00:02:43] That's all they need to know.

[00:02:44] They say fantastic.

[00:02:46] Yeah.

[00:02:46] But he is Donald Trump.

[00:02:47] And this is the thing.

[00:02:48] One of the consistent things is that people don't have large number Americans just don't

[00:02:52] like the sort of person he is.

[00:02:54] Hmm.

[00:02:55] You know, a convicted felon apart from anything else.

[00:02:57] Yeah.

[00:02:58] But for the rest, that doesn't seem to matter, does it?

[00:03:00] Well, I guess it's the bolted on Trump supporters.

[00:03:03] Nothing you can do about them.

[00:03:04] They will always be.

[00:03:05] The base will stay.

[00:03:06] Yeah.

[00:03:06] And that's maybe a third.

[00:03:07] Maybe.

[00:03:08] So it's the other two thirds that we've got to worry about.

[00:03:09] And where are they?

[00:03:10] Because it's these six or seven states that actually matter.

[00:03:13] That's, that's all that will actually make the difference.

[00:03:16] And can it, can it be done in enough time?

[00:03:18] We're just three months coming in late.

[00:03:20] Maybe it's good.

[00:03:21] Maybe it creates a bit more impetus.

[00:03:23] Maybe all of a sudden people will be going, thank goodness when they hear a talk.

[00:03:26] Because the thing is, we don't hear a talk a great deal when you do.

[00:03:29] She's actually, I mean, politics aside, she is an impotator.

[00:03:33] Impressive talker, isn't she?

[00:03:34] Yes.

[00:03:34] And maybe, maybe that's enough.

[00:03:36] I don't know.

[00:03:37] I, and let's, let's find out from someone.

[00:03:39] I mean, there's someone we spoke to exactly a year ago, pretty much on all this.

[00:03:42] Yeah.

[00:03:43] Long before any of the stuff happened.

[00:03:46] Yeah.

[00:03:46] And we're bringing him back to talk to us again.

[00:03:48] And he's Thomas, Dr. Thomas Gift, Associate Professor in Political Science at the University

[00:03:52] College London and Director of the Center on US Politics.

[00:03:55] And he joins us now.

[00:03:56] So Thomas, I mean, first of all, I mean, why do you think Joe Biden hung on for so long?

[00:04:01] I mean, it was, it was clear to everybody apart from Joe Biden, wasn't it?

[00:04:05] That he had to step aside.

[00:04:08] Why was he hanging on in there?

[00:04:09] It's a really good question.

[00:04:11] You know, why he didn't leave earlier, because there was such a chorus of calls from lawmakers

[00:04:16] and donors and commentators suggesting that he should leave.

[00:04:20] I think it's a couple of reasons.

[00:04:22] One is that Joe Biden is a politician, and I think he wanted to cling to power.

[00:04:29] And I think that there was some denial there about the situation that he was grappling with, both in terms of his cognitive decline, as well as the polls.

[00:04:39] I mean, it's hard to look objectively, especially after that debacle of a debate and say that Biden was positioned to beat Donald Trump.

[00:04:49] And then the interview that he had afterwards and series of public events didn't do a whole lot to bolster him in the polls.

[00:04:57] Well, the NATO thing was really embarrassing, wasn't it?

[00:04:59] Yeah. And also having Donald Trump as his vice president wasn't too good either, was it?

[00:05:05] Yes, it was.

[00:05:05] But do you think it's do you think is it is his wife part of it as well?

[00:05:09] Has she been pushing?

[00:05:10] I mean, you know, the you know, the tabloid line is that she quite likes being the first lady and she didn't want to let that go.

[00:05:15] Do you think that was part of it?

[00:05:16] Well, there were a lot of reports suggesting that it was his inner circle, which might include his wife, his son and close advisors.

[00:05:22] I think it's a little bit difficult to speculate exactly what they were recommending just because we're not privy to those conversations.

[00:05:29] But certainly I think a lot of people wondered if they were the big hang up in him making the decision.

[00:05:35] So the decision has been made now and it looks like Kamala Harris is going to be the the.

[00:05:42] Well, that's not certain, is it?

[00:05:43] I mean, I mean, let's walk that through perhaps a little bit first.

[00:05:46] There's a lot of money going behind it.

[00:05:47] Well, there is.

[00:05:47] But but but Tom, so how does it actually work?

[00:05:49] I mean, people put put were were won for the by the in the primaries to support the Harris or the Biden Harris ticket.

[00:05:58] Can can they just transfer now?

[00:06:01] Well, essentially what happens is all of Biden's delegates are de pledged.

[00:06:07] They were previously pledged to Joe Biden, and now he's basically allowed them to go into the convention uncommitted.

[00:06:12] So it's not a done deal yet.

[00:06:14] But I would say at this point, it's basically just a formality.

[00:06:18] She has enough pledged delegates who have come out publicly to say that she that they're going to support her, that it's almost impossible to see another nominee, potential nominee come in, especially with Biden's endorsement, especially with the Clinton's endorsement, with Pelosi's endorsement.

[00:06:36] And she's got all the money.

[00:06:37] There's not an Obama endorsement yet, though, is there, which is surprising in a way.

[00:06:41] That's true. I think that's coming soon.

[00:06:42] I think there was possibly by the time this podcast.

[00:06:45] Well, feasibly, yes.

[00:06:47] I think there was some disagreement within the Democratic Party about whether it would be good to have some type of an open primary that was transparent and allowed a lot of candidates to enter the fray.

[00:06:58] But, you know, I think that the downside of that, of course, is that it would just create chaos and disorder and make the Democratic Party look disunited heading into the convention.

[00:07:07] Well, yeah, but the Lord Darroch of Kew, who was the British ambassador to the United States from 2016 to 2019.

[00:07:15] So he had a couple of years of Trump under his belt.

[00:07:17] He wrote a letter that was published in The Times this week saying what the Democrats need is not a coronation, but a contest, a contest.

[00:07:24] You know, exactly what you were just talking about there, what he calls a blitz primary.

[00:07:29] So a handful of events with a handful of candidates then get the 4,700 delegates to vote announcing the winner at the party's convention.

[00:07:36] He says, you know, that it would his view is that would swamp the airwaves and it might just capture the public's attention and take the focus off Donald Trump for a while.

[00:07:45] So, you know, has he got a point?

[00:07:47] Yeah, I don't think that's an unreasonable point at all.

[00:07:49] I saw Rory Stewart actually make a very similar point, essentially, that this would attract a lot of attention.

[00:07:54] And it would make whoever emerged from that process look more legitimate and that this was not just a coronation.

[00:08:01] Because I do think that there's some concern here that this all looks very elite driven.

[00:08:06] Nancy Pelosi, that Chuck Schumer, that Hakeem Jeffries are kind of pulling the strings in the background, forcing Biden to leave and then essentially anointing someone to replace him who's never won any primary votes.

[00:08:18] I mean, she flamed out in 2019 when Hawk Harris, whenever she ran for president, got no votes.

[00:08:26] And so I think it's not unreasonable to have something like a mini primary, but it doesn't look like that's the direction they're going.

[00:08:34] She comes from California where basically you crown the Democrat anyway.

[00:08:38] So she's never really had to fight an election at all, has she?

[00:08:41] And I wonder, I mean, this is not something that Donald Trump is going to avoid talking about, is it?

[00:08:46] Oh, that's right. I mean, all of the Republicans, including Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, are making comments about how this is very Democrat, undemocratic.

[00:08:54] It's anti-democratic. It's unfair that this is taking away a voice from voters.

[00:09:00] And, you know, since the early 1970s, the primaries really shifted from decisions being made in these proverbial smoke filled rooms by elites to a process that was much more democratic.

[00:09:11] And, you know, I mean, over the last few months, Biden did collect all of these delegates.

[00:09:17] It wasn't Harris. I mean, he's she's on the ticket, certainly.

[00:09:20] But yeah, I think it would have been nice to have a competition.

[00:09:25] I can see, though, the other side of the coin, which is that this would just create a lot of chaos.

[00:09:30] And while Republicans are lining up behind Trump, it would feel like the party was in disarray.

[00:09:36] And they've only got three months.

[00:09:37] I mean, it's a very tight considering how long the American presidential campaign seems to go on.

[00:09:42] It's a very small amount of time.

[00:09:44] And even though she's been vice president, I feel as though people have got to know her, aren't they?

[00:09:47] Because, I mean, the vice president is sort of like it's a it's a pretty low profile role, isn't it?

[00:09:52] Really? You're almost there just in case the president dies.

[00:09:54] That's it. Yeah, I think you're right.

[00:09:55] And especially if you look at the polls of Harris, I don't think that they're very firm because basically Americans haven't gotten to know her too much.

[00:10:04] I mean, she was relegated to a portfolio of relatively low priority issues during the first three or so years.

[00:10:11] She was kind of the spokesperson for the administration on the Dobbs Supreme Court decision, which was the abortion decision.

[00:10:18] So she's been a little bit higher profile.

[00:10:20] But I think her poll numbers, they don't look very good right now in a matchup against Trump.

[00:10:26] But I think that they could go up or they could go down depending on how she presents herself in the next few weeks.

[00:10:31] So I'm looking at 538 polling.

[00:10:33] So approval versus disapproval.

[00:10:35] They've got 38 percent approve of Harris, whereas 51 percent disapprove.

[00:10:40] So then the net approval rating is minus 13.

[00:10:42] But Donald Trump's net approval rating is minus 14 percent.

[00:10:45] So that's got them pretty close.

[00:10:48] Joe Biden was minus 23.

[00:10:49] Well, so it's, you know, so I mean, maybe there's different surveys with different numbers, but certainly it's got closer, hasn't it, as a result of this?

[00:10:57] I mean, these are such incredible numbers that everyone has higher net disapprovals and they're all kind of underwater in terms of their approvals.

[00:11:04] But you're right.

[00:11:05] I mean, Trump is almost a uniquely polarizing figure.

[00:11:08] But Biden has really had low approval ratings.

[00:11:12] I mean, he's kind of pulled lower than many down ballot Democrats.

[00:11:18] You know, Harris is kind of underwater.

[00:11:20] I think to my mind, Democrats right now are trying to convince themselves that Harris is a very popular choice.

[00:11:27] I'm not so convinced.

[00:11:29] I think it's going to be a close race.

[00:11:31] I think it would have been close even if Biden had stayed in.

[00:11:33] Certainly going to be close now that Harris is in.

[00:11:36] But, yeah, it's hard to predict exactly.

[00:11:39] Well, let's pick up on a couple of things.

[00:11:41] You mentioned about how she had taken the lead in terms of the Dobbs, the reproductive rights, let's call it, issue.

[00:11:49] And I suppose if you think of the optics, you have a woman youngish, well, you know, 59, of color, up against a man, if you're looking at them both besides, you know, pretty clearly misogynistic in the past and worse than that, of course, as well.

[00:12:07] Just in terms of the way it looks, isn't that likely to be to play well for Harris?

[00:12:12] I think it is.

[00:12:12] I think the challenge, though, is that voters are so locked in that it's hard to know if there are a whole lot of voters on the fence, swing voters who, you know, maybe were reluctant even to come to the polls at all.

[00:12:25] Now they might be more likely to vote for Harris.

[00:12:28] But I think you're right.

[00:12:29] That contrast, right, is much more stark now because before you had a 78-year-old man versus an 81-year-old man, it feels like passing the torch to a new generation.

[00:12:42] I think Americans are ready for that.

[00:12:44] And so I certainly agree with you that that should work in her favor.

[00:12:47] And a woman president, if she gets it, for the first time.

[00:12:51] I mean, that's quite a leap, isn't it?

[00:12:53] It is.

[00:12:54] I mean, everyone thought that that was going to be Hillary Clinton back in 2016, but she lost.

[00:12:58] I think maybe some will be disappointed that the process by which we could have the first female president wasn't sort of the typical primary process as we would expect.

[00:13:10] But nevertheless, the outcome would be the same.

[00:13:12] And I think that that would be sort of a significant moment.

[00:13:15] I mean, it's certainly past due that American has a female president.

[00:13:20] So how big do you think the contestable vote is?

[00:13:22] So there'll be obviously a bunch of Donald Trump voters that are just locked on and we can forget about them.

[00:13:29] And what would they be?

[00:13:30] I'm guessing about a third of the population.

[00:13:32] You might have a different number.

[00:13:33] And is all the rest contestable then?

[00:13:35] And how many of those, you know, could swing towards the Democrats who are currently Republican voters?

[00:13:43] You just look at public polling data.

[00:13:45] It's almost a third, a third, a third.

[00:13:47] So a third basically are going to vote for a Republican regardless.

[00:13:51] A third who are basically going to vote for a Democrat regardless.

[00:13:53] And then a third in the middle.

[00:13:55] However, that third in the middle, they tend to be they tend to lean in one direction or the other.

[00:13:59] So I think that the actual number of votes that could be captured is maybe four or five, six percentage points, depending on the state.

[00:14:09] Of course, we know that U.S. elections for president are determined entirely essentially by five, six, seven swing states.

[00:14:17] Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia.

[00:14:22] So it's going to be tight.

[00:14:25] I mean, all the polls suggest that it's going to be tight.

[00:14:27] And it's really hard to know where the momentum is.

[00:14:31] Within those states, within those states that you mentioned there, I mean, this four to five percent that you're talking about, maybe six percent.

[00:14:39] Do we have any sense of where they're distributed?

[00:14:41] I suppose you think Pennsylvania, the blue collar vote would be there.

[00:14:45] I mean, Georgia, obviously, you have an extraordinary history in various ways in politics.

[00:14:51] Arizona, I guess, has quite a lot of Republicans.

[00:14:54] I mean, is it possible to get a sense of how this all plays there?

[00:14:57] Yeah, I think a lot of these are disaffected kind of blue collar workers who align probably more with Republicans on social issues,

[00:15:08] but also probably align more on policy with Democrats.

[00:15:12] Democrats. It's it's people like in my my hometown of Pennsylvania, which is a small town in the center of the state, relatively blue collar.

[00:15:23] The populism sort of appeals to to them, but still very socially conservative, quite religious.

[00:15:30] So I think that these are some of the swing voters.

[00:15:33] But it's it's hard to tell. I think it's not just about swing voters, though.

[00:15:37] I think it's about turnout. You know, are Republicans going to turn out?

[00:15:41] Are Democrats going to turn out? It's almost just a base mobilization game.

[00:15:45] I I've called this sort of the era of post persuasion politics, where politicians really aren't trying to convince either swing voters, much less those on the opposite side of the political spectrum.

[00:15:55] They're just trying to assure that their base doesn't stay home.

[00:15:58] And can we assume that God vote all goes to Donald Trump, given that God chose to save him?

[00:16:03] I would say a large percentage of it.

[00:16:05] Certainly it's just if we look at 2016 and 2020, the evangelical community came out for Trump.

[00:16:11] There was a real concern, of course, in 2016, but especially given that he made those three Supreme Court appointments, which overturned Roe v.

[00:16:20] Wade, it kind of has a feather in his cap there.

[00:16:22] Of course, given the morals of Trump and all the scandals and many scandals, it's still a puzzle why such large portions of the Christian community come out for Donald Trump.

[00:16:33] But I think they really just view it sort of as a study in contrast.

[00:16:38] And the policies, particularly on social issues, the Democrats are just not accepted.

[00:16:43] So in terms of the abortion vote, which we talked about earlier, the reproductive rights, a lot of people say, well, it's a female vote in the U.S., even in strongly Republican areas, will just turn against them on that basis.

[00:16:56] Do you think there's truth in that?

[00:16:57] I think there's some truth in that.

[00:16:59] If you look at the 2022 midterms, certainly Democrats overperformed.

[00:17:03] And most experts attribute that to the abortion issue, similar in a number of different referendums that were held in states across the country.

[00:17:13] This is one issue that galvanizes Democrats.

[00:17:15] I remember actually writing an article preceding the 2022 midterms saying that abortion wasn't going to be as big of an issue.

[00:17:23] I was completely wrong on that.

[00:17:25] I think that Donald Trump realizes that this is an Achilles heel for him and his party.

[00:17:31] And he has tried to distance himself from sort of more hardline pro-lifers, essentially saying this is up to the states to make the decisions.

[00:17:41] But he realizes that that could be a really precarious issue.

[00:17:44] And what about Project 25?

[00:17:46] Now we're talking about abortion.

[00:17:48] I mean, Project 25.

[00:17:49] We better explain what that is.

[00:17:50] So Project 25, I'll leave it for you to explain, but I mean, it's being linked as though this is all.

[00:17:55] I mean, it's not coming out of the Trump camp.

[00:17:56] It's been denied by the Trump camp, hasn't it?

[00:17:58] Has it?

[00:17:58] Yeah.

[00:17:59] So is it, should we just ignore it then?

[00:18:02] Because it's, I mean, there's some scary stuff in there.

[00:18:05] I mean, they're not only against.

[00:18:06] Let's just say what it is first, shall we?

[00:18:08] Okay.

[00:18:09] Thomas, what's your understanding of that?

[00:18:11] What's a document that is essentially a blueprint or a game plan for a future Republican administration that includes a lot of recommendations that are quite right wing?

[00:18:20] I mean, it's associated with the Heritage Foundation, which is a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.

[00:18:25] And a number of the authors and contributors are close associates of Trump or have had links to the Trump campaign in the past.

[00:18:34] Trump has said that he doesn't know anything about it, that this doesn't represent his campaign.

[00:18:40] And I do think maybe on this one, Trump has been kind of unduly smeared because he really can't be responsible for every single policy pamphlet that comes out of a right wing think tank from Washington.

[00:18:53] Certainly some ideas in it he would be amenable to, but I don't think it's fair to sort of link him that tightly, especially since he has distanced himself from the document.

[00:19:03] I think one of the reasons why.

[00:19:04] Because he's looking on abortion.

[00:19:05] It's not just against abortion.

[00:19:06] It's also against contraception.

[00:19:08] Yeah.

[00:19:08] It's a number.

[00:19:10] It basically covers every single policy issue.

[00:19:12] I think one of the reasons, though, why Democrats have latched on to this project 2025 is because if you look at the Republican Party platform, it's actually much more moderate, particularly on some of these issues.

[00:19:23] I think that that doesn't really work well for the Democrats in terms of the frame.

[00:19:27] Well, maybe it's I don't know.

[00:19:27] Maybe you have this document, which is extreme.

[00:19:30] And then Donald Trump says, oh, I don't agree with all of that contraception banning contraception.

[00:19:34] What a crazy idea that is.

[00:19:36] Look how moderate I am.

[00:19:37] And all of a sudden he gets the moderate vote.

[00:19:38] Maybe that's it.

[00:19:39] But I'm just wondering how whether, you know, the American politics and we've seen it here.

[00:19:43] In fact, it's around the world.

[00:19:44] It's just become driven by populism and the idea that you could have a more nuanced debate.

[00:19:50] So it's interesting that Kamala Harris, when she was the attorney general of California, she was against the death penalty.

[00:19:55] And one of the things she said was the way to reduce violent crime is to reduce truancy in schools.

[00:20:02] So fine parents who don't allow their kids to go to school if they're perpetually truant.

[00:20:07] And in fact, if they keep on doing it, threaten those parents with jail time as a way to because there's a link between truancy rates and violent crime.

[00:20:16] Two step process.

[00:20:17] Very difficult argument to have rather than just lock them all up, isn't it?

[00:20:21] But I mean, is that too complex?

[00:20:24] Is two stage thinking too difficult for politicians to get across?

[00:20:28] And voters.

[00:20:29] And to voters during an election campaign.

[00:20:31] You've got to keep it simple, I think.

[00:20:33] Absolutely.

[00:20:34] It's got to be a simple message, straightforward.

[00:20:36] The world isn't simple.

[00:20:37] That's the problem.

[00:20:38] Absolutely.

[00:20:38] I know everything's more nuanced.

[00:20:40] There's so much gray areas, but we kind of live in a world of soundbites and these campaigns are no exception.

[00:20:45] That's really unfortunate because I don't think that we are having substantive conversations about what policies work, what policies don't work, under what conditions do they work or not work.

[00:20:55] Instead, it's just kind of, well, it's mudslinging against either.

[00:20:59] Bring foreigners, keep foreigners out, bring jobs home.

[00:21:02] I mean, that's easy, isn't it?

[00:21:04] And that's kind of a populist message.

[00:21:06] And that's resonated both on the Democratic side as well as the Republican side.

[00:21:09] I mean, if we think about some of the appeal that Bernie Sanders has or had, you know, on the left, Trump certainly plays to this.

[00:21:16] He's playing to the fears of many Americans.

[00:21:18] It's tapping into some of these visceral emotions of voters.

[00:21:22] And on to that point, I mean, J.D. Vance, of course, in his speech, the VP on the Trump ticket, went very much down that line in his acceptance speech and what he's said since.

[00:21:32] And actually, that brings us rather neatly onto the whole Veep area because a lot of attention is now going to be focused, I guess, on who Kamala Harris has, assuming she runs, as her VP choice.

[00:21:44] What's your sense on that?

[00:21:45] Well, it's a big question because in large part, it's going to help define her in the eyes of voters in the next several weeks, especially in the lead up to the convention.

[00:21:55] I think that she does want to choose a relative moderate.

[00:21:59] My pick would be and I mentioned I was from Pennsylvania before.

[00:22:02] So on what part partial?

[00:22:04] Yeah, Shapiro.

[00:22:04] I think that he really well, for one thing, Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College, and that's not nothing.

[00:22:13] And Trump is winning Pennsylvania right now by six, seven percentage points.

[00:22:16] If they could swing Pennsylvania, the Democrats, that would be huge in and of itself.

[00:22:20] And that would be worth putting Shapiro on the ticket.

[00:22:22] Even if they don't win Pennsylvania, they might be able to make it close, which would require that Trump siphon off some resources and money from other states and devote it to Pennsylvania just to assure that win.

[00:22:33] But he's a popular governor.

[00:22:35] Yeah, I was going to say, take us inside, Shapiro.

[00:22:37] He's governor.

[00:22:37] He's been governor for some years now, hasn't he?

[00:22:39] He's a popular governor.

[00:22:40] Approval ratings upwards of 60 percent.

[00:22:43] You know, he's governing a state that is kind of a swing state.

[00:22:48] It's purple.

[00:22:49] It's largely red in the middle conservative and two cities, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, are blue on either side of the state.

[00:22:56] But he's kind of a relative fiscal moderate, I would say, and a social moderate as well.

[00:23:02] He's not a flamethrower.

[00:23:03] He doesn't kind of get embroiled in some of these culture wars.

[00:23:07] He just presents as someone who wants to get things done and is very pragmatic.

[00:23:11] I think that after, you know, four years of Donald Trump and the turmoil that we have experienced just in the last few weeks, I think a lot of Americans just want some normalcy.

[00:23:21] And I think that he would bring that.

[00:23:22] And he's a white man.

[00:23:24] Is that important?

[00:23:26] I'm only being studied tongue in cheek here, but George Clooney.

[00:23:32] No, no, no.

[00:23:34] Well, I just think if you bring and if you bring a name into it, because if we're saying the vice president does nothing, you may as well bring a name in.

[00:23:42] Well, that's true.

[00:23:42] I don't know what to say about that.

[00:23:46] But it's such a crazy idea.

[00:23:48] It could almost happen.

[00:23:48] It's a thought.

[00:23:49] But pick up on that white man thing, because that is interesting, because, you know, we are looking at optics here.

[00:23:54] Would it matter if if the other, you know, for the sake of argument, I know, let's put Michelle Obama there as the as the VP.

[00:24:01] Does that kind of thing actually matter still in U.S. politics post Obama?

[00:24:04] Well, I think it's unfortunate that race and religion still do matter, unfortunately.

[00:24:10] And some of these optics are something that politicians are going to take into consideration.

[00:24:15] And, you know, identity politics is certainly a thing.

[00:24:19] How that squares with the decision that Kamala Harris is going to make.

[00:24:25] It's hard to tell.

[00:24:26] Shapiro, for example, is Jewish.

[00:24:28] And, of course, with the war in Gaza being kind of a political tinderbox, some experts have even questioned whether that could be problematic.

[00:24:36] Again, it's a really sad commentary that we have to think about these things.

[00:24:39] But it is the political reality.

[00:24:41] And the idea, you know, that we talked about that Donald Trump's just got this, you know, very easy.

[00:24:45] Just keep the foreigners out and more jobs for Americans.

[00:24:49] What she you know, what's her quick grab, her lift shaft conversation?

[00:24:53] What's she going to I mean, she is saying a lot at the moment, isn't she?

[00:24:55] She's got this whole thing about what's happened in the past doesn't count.

[00:24:59] It's what's what happens in the future that really counts.

[00:25:02] And that's in a way that's smart, because it's like saying, yeah, Trump is trying to take us back to, you know, before we had a lot of people had rights, you know, and he's trying to take, you know, take those away from you.

[00:25:15] So let's forget all of that.

[00:25:17] Let's forget the past and let's look at the future.

[00:25:18] I mean, that's that's smart when you're going against an old man who has old style thinking, I guess.

[00:25:23] I think Kamala Harris really wants to make this election a referendum on Trump.

[00:25:27] The more she can remind Americans what it was like to live through that four years of chaos under his administration, the better.

[00:25:35] So her message is essentially going to be, do you want to go back to January 6th?

[00:25:40] Do you want to go back to impeachment 1.0?

[00:25:42] Do you want to go back to impeachment 2.0?

[00:25:44] Do you want to go back to threats about extirpating the deep state?

[00:25:48] Do you want to go back to all of these lies?

[00:25:49] I think she wants to take the attention somewhat off of her and just say, hey, remember what this felt like.

[00:25:55] We really don't want to go through this again.

[00:25:56] But I mean, a third of the population obviously do, you know.

[00:25:59] Well, they do.

[00:26:00] Yeah.

[00:26:01] But they're not persuadable anyway, I guess.

[00:26:03] Yeah.

[00:26:03] Yeah.

[00:26:04] Yeah.

[00:26:04] So is there going to be a debate?

[00:26:05] So I think there was supposed to be one on the ABC, wasn't there?

[00:26:07] Donald Trump said that they are not a worthy broadcaster, so he doesn't want to do it.

[00:26:12] He said, I know.

[00:26:13] Why don't we do it on Fox News?

[00:26:14] Can't imagine why he'd want to do that.

[00:26:16] Is there going to be a debate?

[00:26:17] And if there was, how would she do against Donald Trump?

[00:26:20] I'm sort of surmising she'd actually do quite well.

[00:26:22] And maybe that's what he's a bit worried about.

[00:26:25] I imagine that there is going to be a debate.

[00:26:27] I mean, maybe Trump wants to get out of it.

[00:26:30] But I think that there's going to be a debate.

[00:26:32] It's going to be hard for those two politicians to kind of escape that because there will be so much pressure.

[00:26:37] I think to some extent, if you think about the bar as being how Biden performed, then certainly Kamala Harris is going to raise beyond that.

[00:26:47] I think that Trump is kind of a good debater.

[00:26:51] I mean, I think that you can debate that, so to speak.

[00:26:54] But he has his own sort of charisma up there on stage and he'll probably do well again.

[00:27:02] I think Kamala Harris, though, just based on what I saw from her in 2019 when she ran in the primaries, she'll be she'll be effective.

[00:27:09] I mean, she's a good communicator.

[00:27:10] She sometimes gets pilloried for not being the most articulate.

[00:27:14] But she's feisty, though, isn't she?

[00:27:17] And if Trump talks her down or bullies her, which is his style, that way against a woman on stage, I mean, it's not going to look good, is it?

[00:27:25] Yeah, it's not a good look.

[00:27:26] And in fact, the first debate, I actually think that the rules worked in Trump's favor because there was this mute button, which kind of prevented Trump from his worst impulses, so to speak, interrupting.

[00:27:39] Yeah, because he would have talked all over Biden and we wouldn't have realized how many names Biden was getting wrong.

[00:27:43] Exactly.

[00:27:44] So that might change.

[00:27:45] Yeah, I think Trump is running a more disciplined campaign this time around.

[00:27:49] And whoever is prepping him for these public appearances, of course, this is this is by the standards of Trump, is doing well.

[00:27:56] But you're right.

[00:27:57] I mean, just the optics of Trump saying nasty things or vicious things about Kamala Harris, it could turn off a lot of moderates swing voters.

[00:28:08] There's one thing we haven't touched on at all, which is violence.

[00:28:11] Oh, yeah.

[00:28:11] Well, I just think I think, you know, the fact is, one of the mega things that's happened in the last two weeks is an assassination attempt on a candidate.

[00:28:19] And Thomas, I mean, this is something that hasn't happened.

[00:28:21] I was looking back.

[00:28:22] Like, I think since the 70s was the last time that actually happened.

[00:28:26] Ronald Reagan.

[00:28:27] Well, no, but he was president, not an attack on a candidate.

[00:28:30] Right.

[00:28:31] And I think that's are we actually moving into something where that could be the character of the next three months in some way?

[00:28:39] Because there's an awful lot of guns out there.

[00:28:41] Thomas, what do you think?

[00:28:42] I certainly think that the election is to some extent going to be viewed through the prism of that assassination attempt.

[00:28:49] It was a defining moment for the campaign season.

[00:28:53] And then you think back to January 6th and all the mayhem associated with the insurrection at the Capitol.

[00:28:59] I still do feel like and maybe I'm sort of being too pessimistic or too optimistic.

[00:29:05] I still do feel like sort of the prospect of large scale political violence in the United States is unlikely.

[00:29:13] I think most Americans still think that political violence is not acceptable.

[00:29:18] But it's something that we have to be mindful of because, you know, it doesn't take a whole lot of people.

[00:29:24] Right.

[00:29:24] With some really some really bad impulses to make a difference.

[00:29:31] Right.

[00:29:32] Crazy ideas.

[00:29:33] Yeah.

[00:29:33] So if we do get another term of Donald Trump, I mean, he's got nothing to lose this time.

[00:29:40] How extreme does he become?

[00:29:42] Well, that's the scary prospect.

[00:29:44] I mean, probably the only scarier prospect for critics of Trump is a second Trump term where he's not where he's sort of unfettered from this possibility of reelection.

[00:29:54] So I think that we should take Trump at his word that he's going to try to exact political retribution, that he's going to try to carve out this, quote unquote, deep state within the government.

[00:30:05] I think on the international front, he's going to pursue a much more isolationist policy than we have seen.

[00:30:12] He's told others that he thinks that Putin should be able to do kind of whatever the heck he wants in Eastern Europe.

[00:30:20] So this is certainly if you're looking at this from the perspective of a world leader in Europe, it's something to be concerned about for sure.

[00:30:29] And yet the so-called Trump trade, the way the markets are reacting, the prices in bonds, the value of the U.S. dollar, how shares are trading.

[00:30:37] I mean, it's all pretty mild, isn't it?

[00:30:39] I mean, if he's going to be quite extreme in his approach, it feels like the money markets haven't woken up to that yet.

[00:30:44] Or don't care.

[00:30:45] Well, maybe, yeah.

[00:30:46] I mean, maybe they're going isolationist America.

[00:30:49] Good for American businesses.

[00:30:51] Share price goes up.

[00:30:52] He's going to issue a lot more bonds.

[00:30:56] So because he's going to tax the reduce taxes on the rich even further.

[00:31:01] Yeah.

[00:31:01] So maybe that.

[00:31:02] Yeah.

[00:31:02] Maybe the money markets don't care.

[00:31:04] It's a good point.

[00:31:04] I think that's right.

[00:31:04] I mean, he's going to pursue deregulatory policies.

[00:31:07] In his first term, he enacted large tax cuts.

[00:31:11] And so I think that the markets in Wall Street would be just fine under a Trump administration.

[00:31:16] Yeah.

[00:31:16] Just a poll.

[00:31:18] As we sort of bring this discussion to a close, Thomas, just we did this very unfairly last time we spoke a year ago, but pushing you again.

[00:31:25] What would be your prediction three months out of how this is going to play out and what the outcome will be?

[00:31:33] Well, again, I do think that it's going to be very close.

[00:31:35] And anyone who says with certainty one direction or the other is probably just guessing.

[00:31:42] My impulse is that Trump is going to win.

[00:31:45] I think he has a lot of momentum.

[00:31:48] When I was home in Pennsylvania, I saw a lot of Trump flags, a lot of bumper stickers.

[00:31:53] Of course, that's very anecdotal.

[00:31:54] But it seems to me that Republicans have really united behind Trump.

[00:31:59] They're more mobilized than ever.

[00:32:01] I think that they're going to turn out.

[00:32:03] But it's also the party out of office.

[00:32:05] So there tends to be a little bit more enthusiasm there.

[00:32:08] So if I had to put my money on one candidate, I would put it on Trump.

[00:32:12] Although I really wouldn't say that that's a sure bet by any means.

[00:32:16] And I'll be there saying, look, should have got Clooney.

[00:32:19] That's where you went wrong.

[00:32:21] There you go.

[00:32:22] Yeah, right.

[00:32:24] See where it goes.

[00:32:24] Well, Thomas, thanks so much for speaking to us again.

[00:32:27] We won't hold you to your prediction, but it will be very interesting to speak to you again, I guess, in the aftermath.

[00:32:32] Interesting times in the United States, that's for sure.

[00:32:35] Thanks for coming on.

[00:32:36] Thank you.

[00:32:36] And so the race is on.

[00:32:38] I mean, it's all sport, isn't it, basically?

[00:32:41] It's a bit of politics, largely sport.

[00:32:42] A lot of betting goes on in this, of course, which is interesting.

[00:32:45] Yeah.

[00:32:45] But let's talk sport.

[00:32:46] Well, of a kind.

[00:32:47] Yeah.

[00:32:48] Because it's Olympics.

[00:32:49] What do you mean of a kind?

[00:32:50] It's all sport.

[00:32:51] Yeah.

[00:32:51] These are finely tuned athletes from around the world.

[00:32:55] None of them taking any drugs that they should be.

[00:32:57] Of course not.

[00:32:58] Perish the thought.

[00:32:58] Well, no, unless they can get away with it.

[00:33:01] Well, some of the people organising it might need drugs, not least because the finance of

[00:33:05] it is so difficult these days for the Olympics, or for any major sports event, getting it right.

[00:33:10] Yeah.

[00:33:10] So does it work?

[00:33:11] I don't know.

[00:33:12] So I've been in two cities where the Olympics have been held, Sydney and London.

[00:33:15] And in both cases, people were pretty excited.

[00:33:20] Yes.

[00:33:21] Well, actually, at the beginning, you went through this whole, well, is it going to pay its way?

[00:33:25] Is it going to be worthwhile?

[00:33:26] We're going to stuff it up?

[00:33:27] Almost exactly the same belief in both cases.

[00:33:30] And then at the end of it, everyone was rather proud, weren't they?

[00:33:33] Yes.

[00:33:33] Because they pulled it out of the hat.

[00:33:34] It was a fantastic event, make people feel proud to be.

[00:33:36] And I think in London and Sydney, it actually came good in terms of what it provided going

[00:33:40] further forward.

[00:33:41] The stuff is still available, the facilities, that kind of thing.

[00:33:44] There was quite a decent amount of that.

[00:33:45] But overall, financially, I don't know that either city made that much money out of it.

[00:33:50] It wasn't a benefit.

[00:33:51] It just about maybe managed to make, break even, perhaps.

[00:33:55] But do you go into it to make money?

[00:33:57] That's the thing.

[00:33:58] Well, you don't go into it to lose money.

[00:33:59] And a lot of the places that have stayed in the last 20, 30 years have lost a lot of money.

[00:34:05] But have they gained national pride from it?

[00:34:08] Is it something more than money?

[00:34:10] Well, clearly a lot of cities don't feel these sort of sports events are worth it.

[00:34:14] I mean, take the Commonwealth Games.

[00:34:16] Well, you see, that's a different thing, isn't it?

[00:34:17] Well, is it?

[00:34:17] No one really.

[00:34:18] I mean, the Olympics is big.

[00:34:21] Yeah.

[00:34:21] World Cup, the Olympics, two big sporting events.

[00:34:23] Yes, but anything else?

[00:34:25] Yeah, everything else falls into second tier.

[00:34:27] I mean, do the Germans make much money out of the Euros?

[00:34:29] I don't know.

[00:34:30] Yeah.

[00:34:30] But I mean, it's like, we only get excited about the Euros because we think we can't win

[00:34:34] the World Cup.

[00:34:34] But I mean, the Euros, again, is like second tier to the World Cup, isn't it?

[00:34:37] And so for all of a sudden...

[00:34:39] Well, Qatar didn't need to make money out of the World Cup, did they?

[00:34:42] That's one thing.

[00:34:43] Yeah.

[00:34:43] Because they've got enough of it, you mean.

[00:34:44] Yes.

[00:34:45] An awful lot of it.

[00:34:46] And they paid a lot for it.

[00:34:47] Yes, exactly.

[00:34:48] But I mean, so the Commonwealth Games, I mean, because you have had cities pulling out of

[00:34:51] the Commonwealth Games.

[00:34:52] You definitely have.

[00:34:53] Because they're worried about how much money they're going to lose.

[00:34:55] Yeah, yeah.

[00:34:55] But it's not got the same prestige, has it?

[00:34:56] Well, no, but several countries pulled out of trying to stage the Olympics because they

[00:35:00] just didn't think it worked financially for them.

[00:35:03] Yeah.

[00:35:03] And the last in the bidding process.

[00:35:05] Well, how much are they losing?

[00:35:07] And does that put a question mark over the Olympics then?

[00:35:10] Yeah.

[00:35:10] I mean, you've got the broadcast rights, which obviously bring a lot of money in, and the

[00:35:15] sponsorship and all kinds of things like that.

[00:35:16] But in the end, is it enough to cover your costs?

[00:35:18] Well, we'll talk about that next week.

[00:35:20] Of course, we'll be in the throes of the Olympics by then.

[00:35:22] We won't come live from Paris, will I?

[00:35:25] We won't, no.

[00:35:25] Which will be nice.

[00:35:26] But it doesn't quite stretch to that.

[00:35:27] But the, yeah, but everyone else will be getting very excited about the Olympics.

[00:35:32] And we'll be there.

[00:35:32] A couple of grumpy old men.

[00:35:34] Going well.

[00:35:34] Yeah, but is it worth it, really?

[00:35:36] Money, eh?

[00:35:36] Yeah.

[00:35:38] So that's a very good reason to come back and join the Y Curve next week.

[00:35:40] Next week.

[00:35:41] That's it.

[00:35:42] Okay, see you then.

[00:35:42] Thanks for listening.

[00:35:43] The Y Curve.