Kamala’s Coronation

[00:00:00] [SPEAKER_03]: The Why Curve, Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing

[00:00:03] [SPEAKER_01]: A campaign transformed.

[00:00:06] [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats are on a roll as the Chicago Convention reaches its climax.

[00:00:10] [SPEAKER_00]: Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz are ahead in the polls, driving an optimism for November.

[00:00:15] [SPEAKER_00]: The party thought was gone.

[00:00:17] [SPEAKER_01]: But outside the convention hall, the shouts of Gaza protesters are a reminder Democrats are far from united on policy.

[00:00:24] [SPEAKER_01]: And the upcoming TV debates could test the ticket beyond anything it has known before.

[00:00:29] [SPEAKER_01]: And Donald Trump and JD Vance still command a lot of support in the states that matter.

[00:00:34] [SPEAKER_00]: So how will the next nine weeks play out and who will win the most powerful office in the world?

[00:00:40] [SPEAKER_03]: The Why Curve

[00:00:43] [SPEAKER_00]: Well is that all it is just nine weeks to go?

[00:00:45] [SPEAKER_01]: Just nine weeks and then they vote and well it's going to be really interesting because I mean everything has transformed in the last few weeks really.

[00:00:55] [SPEAKER_01]: Nothing like it was before. The gloom has dissipated as far as Democrats can see.

[00:00:59] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah and I think Donald Trump is really struggling isn't he?

[00:01:02] [SPEAKER_00]: He looks like it.

[00:01:03] [SPEAKER_00]: He rambles now and now we've noticed.

[00:01:06] [SPEAKER_00]: He's always rambled.

[00:01:07] [SPEAKER_00]: He has but now Biden stopped rambling.

[00:01:09] [SPEAKER_00]: We've noticed how much Donald Trump rambles.

[00:01:11] [SPEAKER_00]: So he was, I mean I saw him this week, he was talking about the problem is not talking about policy.

[00:01:16] [SPEAKER_00]: That's his problem.

[00:01:17] [SPEAKER_00]: And he was talking about how somebody had said how much better Kamala Harris is, how much better looking than he is.

[00:01:22] [SPEAKER_00]: And he was going no I'm better looking and it's just all that sycophantic oh my god it's all about me, me, me.

[00:01:28] [SPEAKER_00]: And it just looked pathetic.

[00:01:29] [SPEAKER_00]: I wonder whether some people who were you know bolt on Trump supporters are now going maybe he has got a few problems.

[00:01:36] [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know about the bolt ons I think they just are going to keep going.

[00:01:39] [SPEAKER_01]: It's a religion almost for them.

[00:01:40] [SPEAKER_01]: But I think that things are going to change with the next debate because one of the interesting things they say about Kamala Harris is that you know she hasn't been tested in terms of a debate in terms of a hard interview or anything like that.

[00:01:52] [SPEAKER_01]: She just held rallies and cheerleaders have been there.

[00:01:55] [SPEAKER_01]: But when that happens indeed when Waltz goes up against JD Vance, I mean it could change a lot.

[00:01:59] [SPEAKER_01]: Who knows?

[00:02:00] [SPEAKER_00]: Either way I guess.

[00:02:02] [SPEAKER_00]: But she's got policies he's not at the moment.

[00:02:04] [SPEAKER_00]: And it's interesting because it seems like they're both going after the same you know they're both going after middle America.

[00:02:09] [SPEAKER_00]: So she's there saying well okay we're going to introduce camps on taxes.

[00:02:15] [SPEAKER_00]: We'll provide more welfare payments.

[00:02:18] [SPEAKER_00]: And you know he's going after those same people but not saying the same thing.

[00:02:22] [SPEAKER_00]: She's basically saying we'll give you money.

[00:02:24] [SPEAKER_00]: And he's going well we'll make the economy better.

[00:02:27] [SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of people could say well actually you didn't really make the economy better last time.

[00:02:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Well I think we felt better and that's the thing you look at it and then people say you know what did you feel better off under Trump?

[00:02:35] [SPEAKER_01]: And a lot of people say yes.

[00:02:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:02:36] [SPEAKER_01]: And that's the worst thing.

[00:02:37] [SPEAKER_01]: But the other thing is don't underestimate the chance the possibility of the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot.

[00:02:42] [SPEAKER_01]: Because they perhaps I shouldn't say that after it's been attempted assassination in the whole thing.

[00:02:47] [SPEAKER_00]: But in the foot it's a lot less serious than the year.

[00:02:50] [SPEAKER_01]: It might have been a bit of a toenail or something.

[00:02:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.

[00:02:52] [SPEAKER_01]: Accuracy never a good.

[00:02:53] [SPEAKER_01]: Anyway the Democrats have got a problem because

[00:02:56] [SPEAKER_00]: I love the fact we should just shy away from this and move on but now we've made it a topic

[00:03:00] [SPEAKER_00]: and all people remember from this podcast that Tasteless we market that this year.

[00:03:04] [SPEAKER_01]: We should hang our heads in shame.

[00:03:06] [SPEAKER_01]: But meanwhile about that now they see because I mean outside the convention in Chicago

[00:03:09] [SPEAKER_01]: a lot of people protesting about Gaza and you may feel you know quite justifiably

[00:03:14] [SPEAKER_01]: you know that there's an awful lot that needs to change.

[00:03:16] [SPEAKER_01]: But the point is in the end if Democrats and some have said that they will not vote for

[00:03:22] [SPEAKER_01]: Carmella Harris and Walt's just because of what the

[00:03:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Carmella Harris the government she's been apart what they've done in terms of Gaza.

[00:03:28] [SPEAKER_01]: But if you don't get that ticket you get Trump

[00:03:31] [SPEAKER_01]: and Trump is as well he's extremely pro-Israel.

[00:03:34] [SPEAKER_01]: He moved the recognition of the capital to Jerusalem.

[00:03:37] [SPEAKER_01]: US embassies in Jerusalem now.

[00:03:40] [SPEAKER_01]: So but they have the capacity to tear themselves apart.

[00:03:44] [SPEAKER_01]: They've got 68 and the Vietnam War and London Johnson all that.

[00:03:47] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.

[00:03:48] [SPEAKER_00]: So I wonder if that's going to become a central part.

[00:03:50] [SPEAKER_00]: I wonder whether sort of like policies, domestic policies are going to be a bit of a sideline

[00:03:54] [SPEAKER_00]: and it really will be an election that is one or lost on what happens in the Middle East.

[00:04:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Well that and I think image I think optics you see and I do think one of the things they've got

[00:04:05] [SPEAKER_01]: when it comes to the debate you're going to see Carmella Harris young woman you know

[00:04:09] [SPEAKER_01]: bit more attractive than Donald Trump opposite Donald Trump.

[00:04:12] [SPEAKER_01]: Well it's been to you asked.

[00:04:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah well that's true but also you know an old white man being insulting towards a younger black woman

[00:04:21] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean it's not going to look good it really isn't.

[00:04:24] [SPEAKER_00]: No but you know as you say to his bolt on supporters that's all fair game isn't it

[00:04:29] [SPEAKER_00]: but look there's lots to talk about by the way I've been getting lots of emails.

[00:04:33] [SPEAKER_00]: You always do.

[00:04:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Abusive?

[00:04:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Well you're not that abusive but I get lots of them from Donald Trump.

[00:04:38] [SPEAKER_00]: Oh right.

[00:04:39] [SPEAKER_00]: And I've noticed that they are not abusive.

[00:04:41] [SPEAKER_00]: Well they've ratcheted up let me tell you that so I got them because I signed up last time

[00:04:46] [SPEAKER_00]: so we're getting them you know all went quiet for the last four years.

[00:04:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Well you are a regular Republican voter.

[00:04:50] [SPEAKER_00]: Well it's they think I am.

[00:04:51] [SPEAKER_00]: That's it even though they keep on saying notice you haven't done this and we're still waiting

[00:04:56] [SPEAKER_00]: we're still counting on your support even though you haven't done anything yet.

[00:04:59] [SPEAKER_00]: But some of those emails are quite extraordinary but I'm getting lots of them.

[00:05:03] [SPEAKER_00]: I'd say about four days now.

[00:05:04] [SPEAKER_00]: Well Farnham is a swing state.

[00:05:05] [SPEAKER_00]: That's what we know.

[00:05:06] [SPEAKER_00]: I don't even notice they don't live in America so I'm not quite sure.

[00:05:10] [SPEAKER_01]: Right well let's talk to someone who does know about America and funnily enough someone

[00:05:13] [SPEAKER_01]: we spoke to only a few weeks ago but so much has changed.

[00:05:16] [SPEAKER_01]: Thomas Gift he's the associate professor of legal science at UCL

[00:05:20] [SPEAKER_01]: founder director of the Center on US Politics and he is in America and he joins us now.

[00:05:25] [SPEAKER_00]: So Thomas I am on Donald Trump's mailing list and I noticed that because he seems to think

[00:05:31] [SPEAKER_00]: I'm a Republican supporter from the from the last time around.

[00:05:35] [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm getting three or four emails a day either from him or from Laura Trump.

[00:05:39] [SPEAKER_00]: So the latest for example it's my last chance to get my official Trump Vance

[00:05:45] [SPEAKER_00]: hat because it's going to be discontinued this week.

[00:05:48] [SPEAKER_00]: I know you want one it says it's 100% made in America

[00:05:52] [SPEAKER_00]: and so all I need to do is buy it and make a significant contribution.

[00:05:57] [SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot of that going on.

[00:05:59] [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of activity happening.

[00:06:01] [SPEAKER_00]: All of it seems a bit desperate because he's always asking for money

[00:06:03] [SPEAKER_00]: and there's a few buttons you can press and some of them are quite sizeable

[00:06:07] [SPEAKER_00]: contributions that he's looking for.

[00:06:09] [SPEAKER_00]: So is he running short on cash for this campaign?

[00:06:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Well I think that hat certainly sounds like a collector's item so you better

[00:06:16] [SPEAKER_02]: have it.

[00:06:16] [SPEAKER_02]: So last time I forgot one I've ordered in details too if you want.

[00:06:19] [SPEAKER_02]: And it's not just the hats.

[00:06:20] [SPEAKER_02]: It's the sneakers and it's also the Bibles that.

[00:06:24] [SPEAKER_01]: Oh you're the Bible now that's quite something.

[00:06:26] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, cardigan.

[00:06:26] [SPEAKER_02]: Exactly but I think you're right.

[00:06:28] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean these campaigns are relatively well funded.

[00:06:32] [SPEAKER_02]: A lot of money though for Trump has been siphoned off for legal fees

[00:06:36] [SPEAKER_02]: so that has just been an enormous expense.

[00:06:38] [SPEAKER_02]: Some of that has come through super PACs.

[00:06:41] [SPEAKER_02]: Some of it's come through his campaign but it's an enormous amount of money.

[00:06:44] [SPEAKER_02]: I don't want to say he's totally desperate yet.

[00:06:47] [SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of Republican donors particularly on Wall Street who professed

[00:06:52] [SPEAKER_02]: not to support Trump several months ago are now kind of coming back to him

[00:06:57] [SPEAKER_02]: because they think that he has a reasonable shot of winning the White House

[00:07:00] [SPEAKER_02]: but certainly he's got to raise some more money and he's got a more formidable opponent.

[00:07:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Well that's interesting you said he they think he's got a reasonable

[00:07:08] [SPEAKER_01]: shot at winning because surely the mood music I mean that you know

[00:07:12] [SPEAKER_01]: what's happened over the last few weeks since we last spoke to you everything

[00:07:15] [SPEAKER_01]: and suggested the opposite.

[00:07:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Well I agree with that certainly there's really been an about face.

[00:07:20] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean after the assassination attempt on Trump

[00:07:23] [SPEAKER_02]: you looked at the polling and you almost thought to yourself

[00:07:26] [SPEAKER_02]: how can Trump lose this?

[00:07:28] [SPEAKER_02]: And he actually Trump thought that himself to a large extent many say

[00:07:32] [SPEAKER_02]: that he probably regrets the choice of JD Vance as a vice president

[00:07:36] [SPEAKER_02]: but he did it during a period when he thought he could just select anybody

[00:07:40] [SPEAKER_02]: and he was going to sort of parade to the the the win.

[00:07:45] [SPEAKER_02]: But absolutely I mean since Joe Biden stepped aside Kamala Harris

[00:07:49] [SPEAKER_02]: consolidated all of her support very very quickly from the Obama's

[00:07:55] [SPEAKER_02]: from the Clintons from the Bidens themselves

[00:07:59] [SPEAKER_02]: pretty soon after you know she was made the official Democratic nominee

[00:08:04] [SPEAKER_02]: and closed most of the gap in the polls to the point where there's now

[00:08:09] [SPEAKER_02]: some polling showing that nationally she's up on Trump

[00:08:13] [SPEAKER_02]: and even outside the margin of error.

[00:08:16] [SPEAKER_00]: The reason why I mentioned the money is because I'm just one of you in America

[00:08:18] [SPEAKER_00]: does money win? Is it all just going to be a fight for advertising?

[00:08:23] [SPEAKER_00]: You know whoever spends the most will ultimately be the winner.

[00:08:26] [SPEAKER_01]: And actually I've heard Tom's I don't know this is true that Kamala's got more money

[00:08:29] [SPEAKER_01]: it's a bigger war chest in fact.

[00:08:30] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah I mean I'm in Pennsylvania right now and it cannot turn on the television

[00:08:35] [SPEAKER_02]: without seeing an ad for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

[00:08:39] [SPEAKER_02]: So they are expending enormous sums of money particularly in these battleground states.

[00:08:45] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean it is a little bit clear if money helps candidates win

[00:08:49] [SPEAKER_02]: or candidates who are going to win attract money that's always kind of

[00:08:53] [SPEAKER_02]: difficult to disentangle but Kamala Harris certainly is in a probably

[00:08:58] [SPEAKER_02]: a better position financially right now.

[00:09:01] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean there was just so much pent up supply of dollars from donors

[00:09:05] [SPEAKER_02]: who were reluctant to give funds to the Biden campaign as soon as he dropped out

[00:09:11] [SPEAKER_02]: all of that kind of went into a slush fund for her.

[00:09:14] [SPEAKER_02]: So she's looking pretty from that standpoint.

[00:09:16] [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah but more about Elon Musk is he I mean he's got deep pockets

[00:09:20] [SPEAKER_00]: I mean obviously bought X for billions and that hasn't worked out very well for him

[00:09:26] [SPEAKER_00]: maybe he could spend his money more wisely trying to change the world

[00:09:30] [SPEAKER_00]: by getting Donald Trump as the world leader.

[00:09:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah because Peter Thiel and there's loads of other Silicon Valley types

[00:09:34] [SPEAKER_01]: who still seem to be Trumpite.

[00:09:36] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah no absolutely Trump still has a lot of support

[00:09:39] [SPEAKER_02]: especially from some of these very deep pocketed donors in the tech world

[00:09:45] [SPEAKER_02]: some of them also support Democrats as well but yeah Elon Musk has kind of

[00:09:51] [SPEAKER_02]: given him Trump his full-throated support in recent weeks.

[00:09:54] [SPEAKER_02]: Why is that just self-interest because they think it's going to be light on regulation?

[00:09:58] [SPEAKER_02]: I think some of its self-interest I think for someone like Musk

[00:10:02] [SPEAKER_02]: he said on Twitter that the assassination attempt in Trump

[00:10:07] [SPEAKER_02]: pumping his fist and saying fight fight fight is when he decided to endorse

[00:10:12] [SPEAKER_02]: Trump because he liked what it represented.

[00:10:14] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean it so much depends on well optics I mean that's really what it seems to be

[00:10:20] [SPEAKER_01]: but Thomas I mean let's just sort of project we got nine weeks by my calculation

[00:10:24] [SPEAKER_01]: eight or nine weeks to the vote how do you see it playing out we've got

[00:10:28] [SPEAKER_01]: Kamala Harris effectively being having a coronation really in Chicago

[00:10:33] [SPEAKER_01]: a lot of whooping you know balloons coming from the ceiling the whole shebang

[00:10:36] [SPEAKER_01]: happy days are here again what happens after that how do you see the campaign playing out?

[00:10:42] [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah I mean I still have to say that I think that Donald Trump is the frontrunner

[00:10:46] [SPEAKER_02]: and the reason I say that still that's interesting still I think because

[00:10:49] [SPEAKER_02]: Kamala Harris certainly has gotten a surge of support

[00:10:53] [SPEAKER_02]: but at the same time she hasn't gotten a whole lot of scrutiny she's been in

[00:10:57] [SPEAKER_02]: more or less this honeymoon period she hasn't had any press conference

[00:11:01] [SPEAKER_02]: she hasn't done any sit-down interviews essentially she hasn't had to

[00:11:05] [SPEAKER_02]: answer any tough questions and I think as soon as the Democratic National Convention

[00:11:09] [SPEAKER_02]: is over the media are really going to surround her they've started to

[00:11:13] [SPEAKER_02]: you know express a little bit of consternation about the fact that

[00:11:17] [SPEAKER_02]: she hasn't been as accessible as Trump and once she starts getting

[00:11:22] [SPEAKER_02]: into policy and Republicans get a better sense of

[00:11:26] [SPEAKER_02]: how they're going to attack her I could see her numbers slipping

[00:11:29] [SPEAKER_02]: a bit but even then I mean it's I wouldn't want to be in the

[00:11:33] [SPEAKER_02]: position of making a prediction because it really does seem like a toss-up.

[00:11:36] [SPEAKER_00]: So she does have that and this seems quite novel I think as an approach it could work

[00:11:40] [SPEAKER_00]: she's actually got policies

[00:11:44] [SPEAKER_00]: because you know what so Donald Trump maybe could

[00:11:46] [SPEAKER_00]: introduce some of those as well rather than just deciding who's better looking

[00:11:50] [SPEAKER_00]: him or Kamala Harris so I mean she's got for example a lot

[00:11:55] [SPEAKER_00]: on price controls the economic policies she announced this week so capping

[00:11:59] [SPEAKER_00]: prescription prices giving help to first home buyers

[00:12:02] [SPEAKER_00]: trying to end grocery price gouging

[00:12:06] [SPEAKER_00]: she's increasing wants to increase child tax benefits

[00:12:10] [SPEAKER_00]: yeah so I mean there's a lot of that sort of helping the poor

[00:12:13] [SPEAKER_00]: or helping you know providing welfare for those who most in need of it

[00:12:17] [SPEAKER_00]: so Donald Trump of course you know there's not a bit light on policy right now

[00:12:21] [SPEAKER_00]: except for the fact he I know is counted to that it's going to be well I'm going to help all of those people

[00:12:25] [SPEAKER_00]: because I'm going to help the economy grow without giving specifically support directly

[00:12:29] [SPEAKER_00]: to those groups but I wonder whether you know if you are in those

[00:12:33] [SPEAKER_00]: groups you might look and go well that's like the idea of growth but hmm

[00:12:36] [SPEAKER_00]: bit of a handout now would be quite useful as well thanks so I mean

[00:12:40] [SPEAKER_00]: she could win on policy couldn't she I think that she could win on policy

[00:12:44] [SPEAKER_02]: you're right she has been a little bit more specific especially in terms of

[00:12:48] [SPEAKER_02]: what she would want to do for the economy of course some of those proposals really got

[00:12:52] [SPEAKER_02]: panned of late whenever she gave this big speech on

[00:12:58] [SPEAKER_02]: price gouging the food industry association didn't like it

[00:13:00] [SPEAKER_02]: actually yeah well yeah absolutely and a lot of economists came

[00:13:04] [SPEAKER_02]: out and said that this is just bad policy it would lead to

[00:13:08] [SPEAKER_02]: shortages and it could actually exacerbate inflation

[00:13:12] [SPEAKER_02]: but Trump also has a number of different policies that I think would hurt

[00:13:16] [SPEAKER_02]: the economy including imposing 10 percent tariffs on virtually any

[00:13:20] [SPEAKER_02]: imports ratcheting up the trade war against China so

[00:13:24] [SPEAKER_02]: you know just from an economic perspective I think experts are sort of wary

[00:13:28] [SPEAKER_02]: of what both Trump might do as well as what Harris would do I will say that

[00:13:32] [SPEAKER_02]: I think a lot of Harris's proposals would not pass Congress I think that they would be

[00:13:36] [SPEAKER_02]: dead on arrival but she does feel the need to be a bit

[00:13:40] [SPEAKER_00]: more concrete. Well they are certainly a bit more what we call socialist

[00:13:44] [SPEAKER_00]: and not necessarily seen as a bad thing in Europe but in the United States obviously.

[00:13:48] [SPEAKER_00]: Trump called them communists. Yeah we would have taken those words interchangeable aren't they

[00:13:52] [SPEAKER_00]: so yeah in America I could see that would be a hard sell and I suppose the thing is all

[00:13:56] [SPEAKER_01]: this is going to come under a lot of concentration probably the next date

[00:14:00] [SPEAKER_01]: in the diary September 11th the actual debate I mean that's when I guess

[00:14:04] [SPEAKER_01]: the host will introduce these subjects if nothing else who's going to win that

[00:14:08] [SPEAKER_01]: debate do you think. Well I don't know who's going to win that debate I mean

[00:14:11] [SPEAKER_02]: but has Kamala going to perform. Yeah I mean she's certainly going to do better

[00:14:15] [SPEAKER_02]: than Joe Biden and that's not a very high bar I think both

[00:14:20] [SPEAKER_02]: Trump and Kamala Harris are kind of sneaky good

[00:14:23] [SPEAKER_02]: debaters I mean Trump really rose to become the nominee

[00:14:27] [SPEAKER_02]: in 2016 because he plowed over his competition

[00:14:31] [SPEAKER_02]: during the debates and Harris had some challenges whenever she was running

[00:14:35] [SPEAKER_02]: for president in 2019 but most of that wasn't on the

[00:14:39] [SPEAKER_02]: debate stage and there were some moments that they've shown recently even when

[00:14:43] [SPEAKER_02]: she kind of got Joe Biden on the debate stage so you know I think it'll be

[00:14:47] [SPEAKER_02]: a pretty tough fight I'm not sure if either one will emerge

[00:14:51] [SPEAKER_02]: as the clear victor I think probably both sides will spin it such that their own candidate

[00:14:55] [SPEAKER_02]: wins but that's what we expect. What about waltz and JD Vance they will

[00:14:59] [SPEAKER_01]: I think a face-to-face coming up as well again I mean does waltz inject

[00:15:03] [SPEAKER_01]: something different into the campaign the Midwestern dad vibe

[00:15:07] [SPEAKER_02]: The last time we talked I think I predicted that Josh Appiro the governor

[00:15:11] [SPEAKER_02]: of Pennsylvania was going to be the vice presidential nominee. Yeah we won't hold that against you.

[00:15:15] [SPEAKER_02]: I ended up being wrong on that. How did that happen? See don't kill it to me for

[00:15:19] [SPEAKER_02]: predictions. I mean I still am very surprised and I still think that that was a strategic

[00:15:23] [SPEAKER_02]: mistake simply because the odds of Harris winning

[00:15:27] [SPEAKER_02]: without winning Pennsylvania are relatively low but at the same time

[00:15:31] [SPEAKER_02]: you know I can see waltz injecting quite a bit of energy into

[00:15:35] [SPEAKER_02]: the campaign I mean he sort of represents this Midwestern

[00:15:39] [SPEAKER_02]: values you know as former football coach

[00:15:43] [SPEAKER_02]: you know very popular governor in Minnesota

[00:15:46] [SPEAKER_02]: at the same time I think JD Vance in kind of that one-on-one format

[00:15:50] [SPEAKER_02]: where he can really get into policy as

[00:15:54] [SPEAKER_02]: kind of a wonk. I think he is quite effective so I do think that that's going to be

[00:15:59] [SPEAKER_02]: an interesting sort of dimension between the two. Is Donald Trump

[00:16:02] [SPEAKER_00]: in short pants isn't he in so many ways in that he is quite

[00:16:06] [SPEAKER_00]: entertaining I mean there's a lot of rubbish comes out of his mouth but I mean he's

[00:16:11] [SPEAKER_00]: you know it's it's but you can see there's some thought

[00:16:14] [SPEAKER_00]: as well and so he's you know he's not he's not totally

[00:16:17] [SPEAKER_00]: he thinks people with more children should get more votes in an election it's an interesting one

[00:16:23] [SPEAKER_00]: there you are you see that there's a policy area to try and get people to

[00:16:27] [SPEAKER_00]: populate America so that you get more Americans and less migrants

[00:16:30] [SPEAKER_00]: and give them more votes yeah why not I mean you can see his rationale

[00:16:35] [SPEAKER_00]: crazy idea but you can see the rationale and lots of people would

[00:16:38] [SPEAKER_00]: say well that makes sense. I don't think so

[00:16:41] [SPEAKER_02]: well I don't know I mean it's um I don't want to get into discussions of

[00:16:45] [SPEAKER_02]: childless cat ladies. Very unwise

[00:16:49] [SPEAKER_02]: definitely unwise. I mean he's a smart guy I mean

[00:16:53] [SPEAKER_02]: I definitely think he knows his stuff I mean at the same time whenever

[00:16:57] [SPEAKER_02]: he was uh came out as senator of Ohio he

[00:17:01] [SPEAKER_02]: underperformed other statewide Republicans so I'm not sure

[00:17:05] [SPEAKER_02]: if he's necessarily the most popular but I do think that he can be effective

[00:17:09] [SPEAKER_02]: whenever he's talking substantive policy except me when he gets off track with

[00:17:13] [SPEAKER_00]: issues. So do we know what Trump's policies are I mean and will there be any other

[00:17:17] [SPEAKER_00]: than making America great again or is that enough? Yeah that's gotta be enough right

[00:17:20] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean that seems to be all that Donald Trump represents I think

[00:17:24] [SPEAKER_02]: probably if you want to know what Donald Trump will do in

[00:17:29] [SPEAKER_02]: four years it's best to just look at what he did in his first four years

[00:17:33] [SPEAKER_02]: and a lot of it was you know ostensibly

[00:17:36] [SPEAKER_02]: uprooting the deep state he said that he's going to go on

[00:17:40] [SPEAKER_02]: a retribution tour none of that has a whole lot to do with policy

[00:17:43] [SPEAKER_02]: I think whenever it comes to foreign policy obviously he's going to pursue

[00:17:47] [SPEAKER_02]: his America first foreign policy which is kind of a sort of

[00:17:51] [SPEAKER_02]: belligerent isolationism that's skeptical of multilateral organizations

[00:17:56] [SPEAKER_02]: skeptical of treaties I do think that he will ratchet up the trade war

[00:18:00] [SPEAKER_02]: with China even more domestically you know we're probably talking

[00:18:03] [SPEAKER_02]: tax cuts particularly for corporations I mean

[00:18:07] [SPEAKER_02]: if Trump happens to

[00:18:11] [SPEAKER_02]: nominate another judge it's going to be one of course who's very conservative and in line with

[00:18:15] [SPEAKER_01]: the ones that he's putting in place. Well that's the thing interesting about putting in place people because

[00:18:19] [SPEAKER_01]: of course there's the agenda 25 project 25 whatever it was called

[00:18:23] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean I don't know how seriously people take that Trump's sort of denied it this is a

[00:18:27] [SPEAKER_01]: sort of blueprint for effectively changing the personnel in large

[00:18:31] [SPEAKER_01]: parts of the US government to people more favorable to Trump. Yeah exactly I mean I do think

[00:18:35] [SPEAKER_02]: that that's going to be tough to take on practically simply because there are a lot of

[00:18:40] [SPEAKER_02]: protections guaranteed for these workers but it is one part of

[00:18:44] [SPEAKER_02]: project 2025 that he has kind of latched onto I mean he's called some elements of

[00:18:49] [SPEAKER_02]: project 2025 abysmal others he's been a little bit more favorable to

[00:18:55] [SPEAKER_02]: I will say that you know project 2025

[00:18:59] [SPEAKER_02]: outlines a number of fairly extreme right wing policies and I don't think

[00:19:03] [SPEAKER_02]: Trump actually is that ideological per se I don't think that he's someone

[00:19:07] [SPEAKER_02]: who's going to come in and just kind of implement

[00:19:10] [SPEAKER_02]: right wing policy after right wing policy I think he just likes the power

[00:19:14] [SPEAKER_02]: and he wants to get back at his political enemies.

[00:19:18] [SPEAKER_00]: Well economically speaking he's not that right wing is he really and I just wonder how often

[00:19:22] [SPEAKER_00]: economics is mentioned or finance is mentioned

[00:19:26] [SPEAKER_00]: during the campaign because we had the committee for a responsible

[00:19:30] [SPEAKER_00]: federal budget saying that Kamala Harris's

[00:19:34] [SPEAKER_00]: budget proposals would increase the government deficit 1.7 trillion

[00:19:39] [SPEAKER_00]: to maybe 2 trillion over the next decade but then

[00:19:42] [SPEAKER_00]: I mean Donald Trump's not really set any policies but he did say he wants to get rid of taxes on social security

[00:19:46] [SPEAKER_00]: benefits there's one thing he has said that alone would probably cost about

[00:19:50] [SPEAKER_00]: 2 trillion over the next decade as well so there doesn't seem to really care really too much

[00:19:54] [SPEAKER_01]: about keeping budgets under control. But maybe that doesn't matter if the economy

[00:19:58] [SPEAKER_01]: is growing in the way that potentially could be I mean if you've got

[00:20:02] [SPEAKER_00]: the point from the committee for responsible federal budget

[00:20:06] [SPEAKER_00]: says you know this could all be inflationary because all of this means the government

[00:20:10] [SPEAKER_00]: is going to be spending more money that's more money put into the economy and then that has an inflationary

[00:20:14] [SPEAKER_00]: impact but then you know if you impose tariffs on imports I mean the you know

[00:20:18] [SPEAKER_00]: America and the rest of the world has done quite well over the last decade in keeping inflation down

[00:20:22] [SPEAKER_00]: because we've imported deflation from low price goods from Chinese

[00:20:26] [SPEAKER_00]: you get rid of that and then welcome back inflationary

[00:20:30] [SPEAKER_00]: in a big way so I mean I would have thought Kamala Harris would be there you know if she was smart

[00:20:34] [SPEAKER_00]: she'd be there saying you know if we put tariffs 50% or 100%

[00:20:38] [SPEAKER_00]: tariffs on Chinese goods and we can't produce them as cost

[00:20:42] [SPEAKER_00]: effectively at home which we can't then we've got inflation back again as well

[00:20:46] [SPEAKER_00]: so yeah I mean that's certainly a reasonable line of attack

[00:20:49] [SPEAKER_02]: it's a little bit difficult I think for national politicians not to take a tough

[00:20:53] [SPEAKER_02]: line on China right now but you're right I mean most of these policies

[00:20:57] [SPEAKER_02]: are very inflationary too many dollars chasing

[00:21:01] [SPEAKER_02]: too few goods and we talk all about political polarization in Washington

[00:21:05] [SPEAKER_02]: but the one area where Democrats and Republicans always seem to agree

[00:21:09] [SPEAKER_02]: is that there's going to be more federal spending

[00:21:13] [SPEAKER_02]: is sort of money coming in to the trade.

[00:21:16] [SPEAKER_00]: So are they really that different I mean you would have thought you know the Republicans of old would be

[00:21:20] [SPEAKER_00]: a little bit more fiscally conservative wouldn't they so if Donald Trump loses I mean

[00:21:23] [SPEAKER_00]: taking a step ahead does the Republican party go back to what it was

[00:21:27] [SPEAKER_00]: do they kiss goodbye to the Trump era or do they say well let's have another shot again in

[00:21:32] [SPEAKER_01]: five years. Would he even accept that he loses if he loses? Well there's that too

[00:21:35] [SPEAKER_02]: yeah that's a great question I mean what is the future of Trumpism and does Trumpism

[00:21:40] [SPEAKER_02]: even exist without Trump it's hard to think about the Republican

[00:21:43] [SPEAKER_02]: party quickly snapping back to sort of the status quo ante what it

[00:21:48] [SPEAKER_02]: looked like before 2016 what it looked like under you know

[00:21:52] [SPEAKER_02]: whenever the leader was Mitt Romney or whenever the leader was

[00:21:56] [SPEAKER_02]: George W. Bush I think it's hard to kind of go back I think the

[00:22:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Republican party is what it is right now obviously Trump is very

[00:22:04] [SPEAKER_02]: important part of it but I think Trump is in some sense

[00:22:07] [SPEAKER_02]: symptomatic of some problems that are emerging within the

[00:22:11] [SPEAKER_02]: Republican party more than he is just exclusively the cause of it

[00:22:15] [SPEAKER_01]: What about within the Democrats because we mentioned

[00:22:19] [SPEAKER_01]: the Gaza demonstrations and the Middle East war and as also

[00:22:23] [SPEAKER_01]: the war Ukraine but particularly for the Democrats what's happened

[00:22:27] [SPEAKER_01]: in terms of Israel and Gaza has been very difficult to deal with will that

[00:22:31] [SPEAKER_01]: cause problems during elections will there be many Democrats who simply will not

[00:22:35] [SPEAKER_01]: vote for a representative of the current government because of the

[00:22:39] [SPEAKER_02]: Gaza policy? Yeah that's still a big question I mean we certainly saw during the primaries

[00:22:43] [SPEAKER_02]: very large protest vote in Michigan in

[00:22:46] [SPEAKER_02]: particular trying to you know make the point that they're not

[00:22:51] [SPEAKER_02]: going to just accept any Democratic policies when it comes to Gaza

[00:22:54] [SPEAKER_02]: that they really want ones that they agree with I mean that can

[00:22:58] [SPEAKER_02]: certainly make a difference on the margins it does reveal I think

[00:23:02] [SPEAKER_02]: some cracks within the Democratic party that were already

[00:23:06] [SPEAKER_02]: there but are bubbling more toward the surface

[00:23:10] [SPEAKER_02]: so yeah I mean there's always been this divide between

[00:23:14] [SPEAKER_02]: more progressives and more moderates within the Democratic party and so how is Kamala

[00:23:18] [SPEAKER_00]: how is she trading that line which side of the divide is she falling on at the moment

[00:23:22] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean I think she's largely been trying to avoid that issue I'm not sure if she

[00:23:26] [SPEAKER_02]: can avoid it completely but the best way for her you know not to get hammered

[00:23:31] [SPEAKER_02]: on either side is not to say a whole lot about it

[00:23:33] [SPEAKER_02]: I think most of her rhetoric has been barely consistent with what

[00:23:37] [SPEAKER_02]: you know Biden has been saying but she's really trying to keep a

[00:23:41] [SPEAKER_01]: low profile. She'll get asked about that in the debate when she's bound to come up at some point

[00:23:46] [SPEAKER_01]: and she's got to have an answer. Yeah she's got to have an answer I know

[00:23:49] [SPEAKER_02]: I'm just not exactly sure what it is I mean we there was

[00:23:53] [SPEAKER_02]: even some film from a recent rally where

[00:23:57] [SPEAKER_02]: there were Gaza protesters who showed up the one time she took a much more hard

[00:24:01] [SPEAKER_02]: line against the protesters then the next time that happened she took

[00:24:05] [SPEAKER_02]: much more soft tone I'm assuming because she got so much

[00:24:09] [SPEAKER_02]: pushback for doing so so which Kamala Harris will show up I'm not entirely sure

[00:24:13] [SPEAKER_01]: of. Well she took on a haeclid and she heard this one where she said you keep saying that

[00:24:17] [SPEAKER_01]: you're gonna get Trump in the White House yeah and I mean

[00:24:21] [SPEAKER_01]: that surely is the point you know can anyone be that myopic as to

[00:24:25] [SPEAKER_01]: think that not getting returning Democrats to

[00:24:29] [SPEAKER_01]: the White House will in any way help the Palestinian

[00:24:32] [SPEAKER_01]: cause I mean Trump in the White House is surely the worst option. Exactly

[00:24:36] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean there's a significant contingent though within the Democratic

[00:24:40] [SPEAKER_02]: party that just thinks it has to be ideologically pure at all

[00:24:44] [SPEAKER_02]: time and so even if Donald Trump would be worse for them on

[00:24:48] [SPEAKER_02]: any particular issue including the Gaza war maybe they're still not motivated

[00:24:52] [SPEAKER_02]: to show up I mean you would think that they would kind of take this rational calculation

[00:24:56] [SPEAKER_02]: even if they thought it was kind of choosing the best of two evils

[00:25:00] [SPEAKER_02]: but you know I'm not sure if all of them will just be so dissatisfied. It goes with the Labor Party

[00:25:04] [SPEAKER_00]: here I think in the past. Yeah absolutely I was thinking it's exactly the same isn't it

[00:25:08] [SPEAKER_00]: so what about the Russia Ukraine situation

[00:25:13] [SPEAKER_00]: Donald Trump said he can get that one sorted out in a day so he's just going to

[00:25:16] [SPEAKER_00]: give into Russia basically I guess but I mean do we know what

[00:25:19] [SPEAKER_00]: Kamala Harris' take on that is? Another one of the events in it. I guess

[00:25:23] [SPEAKER_02]: you can say does America care? Yeah does America care that's probably the bigger question

[00:25:27] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean as you said Trump said that he would just snap his fingers and this war would be over

[00:25:32] [SPEAKER_02]: in 24 hours which

[00:25:34] [SPEAKER_02]: ostensibly means capitulating to Putin.

[00:25:38] [SPEAKER_02]: Kamala Harris really has tried to

[00:25:41] [SPEAKER_02]: toe the Biden line I think on Ukraine

[00:25:44] [SPEAKER_02]: and I think that she has a real opportunity there

[00:25:47] [SPEAKER_02]: to keep this NATO alliance intact and to give

[00:25:51] [SPEAKER_02]: Ukraine what it needs to defend itself

[00:25:54] [SPEAKER_02]: and win the war but increasingly when you look at the polls

[00:25:57] [SPEAKER_02]: Americans are just not interested in supporting this war

[00:26:02] [SPEAKER_02]: that's true within the Republican electorate. I'd say it's maybe even true

[00:26:06] [SPEAKER_02]: within the Democratic electorate as well so whether

[00:26:09] [SPEAKER_02]: there's just fatigue on this issue how Harris will deal with

[00:26:13] [SPEAKER_02]: that is a big question at some point I do think that

[00:26:15] [SPEAKER_02]: even if it's not happening in public in private there's going to be some

[00:26:19] [SPEAKER_02]: pushing on Ukraine to say we need to find the negotiating.

[00:26:23] [SPEAKER_01]: What about migration though because that again you know surely

[00:26:26] [SPEAKER_01]: it's the biggest problem for Kamala because she was in some sense

[00:26:30] [SPEAKER_01]: at least Biden's representative on that issue

[00:26:33] [SPEAKER_01]: and it's obviously one that

[00:26:36] [SPEAKER_01]: Donald Trump built a lot of his political capital. Yeah you're right

[00:26:40] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean I do think that immigration can be

[00:26:42] [SPEAKER_02]: a political liability for Kamala Harris if you look at the polling

[00:26:47] [SPEAKER_02]: more Americans say that immigration is the most important issue

[00:26:51] [SPEAKER_02]: than sort of any other issue besides maybe the economy

[00:26:54] [SPEAKER_02]: and she was in charge as vice president of addressing

[00:26:57] [SPEAKER_02]: the quote-unquote root causes of this issue and

[00:27:00] [SPEAKER_02]: Republicans are certainly framing that as a huge

[00:27:05] [SPEAKER_02]: hugely unsuccessful endeavor I mean

[00:27:07] [SPEAKER_02]: Trump during his first term emphasized building the wall

[00:27:10] [SPEAKER_02]: he's really leaned into some xenophobic

[00:27:13] [SPEAKER_02]: language and anti-immigration language that plays

[00:27:16] [SPEAKER_02]: very well with the political base. I do think though

[00:27:21] [SPEAKER_02]: just in terms of sheer politics

[00:27:23] [SPEAKER_02]: that's probably a winning issue for Trump. And the problem is

[00:27:27] [SPEAKER_00]: well of course with a lot of migrants of course they come from very big family

[00:27:29] [SPEAKER_00]: get a very big family coming in just think how many votes they're going to get because they've got so many children

[00:27:33] [SPEAKER_00]: that could be if they get the vote. Yeah exactly.

[00:27:37] [SPEAKER_00]: So do Americans feel better off after

[00:27:41] [SPEAKER_00]: I mean after Trump did they feel as though things were heading in the right way for them?

[00:27:45] [SPEAKER_00]: I mean I guess to Donald Trump's benefit we had Covid so it's difficult to tell

[00:27:49] [SPEAKER_00]: wasn't it things that actually how well everyone went off was a little bit obfuscated

[00:27:53] [SPEAKER_00]: by the fact that we had a global pandemic but do you think people felt as though

[00:27:57] [SPEAKER_00]: things were you know the Trump supporters anyway but you know the population

[00:28:01] [SPEAKER_00]: at large so things were heading in the right direction under his first term?

[00:28:04] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean the number of jobs available in the US is historic proportions

[00:28:08] [SPEAKER_01]: I mean people aren't finding it hard to get one. Yeah there's just so much

[00:28:12] [SPEAKER_02]: disagreement over whether the economy is heading in the right

[00:28:16] [SPEAKER_02]: direction right now and if you just look at the polls over 50% of voters think that

[00:28:20] [SPEAKER_02]: the economy and America more generally is heading in the wrong direction

[00:28:25] [SPEAKER_02]: of course though there are huge partisan splits and so it's Republicans who thought

[00:28:28] [SPEAKER_02]: they were better off four years ago it's Democrats now who think that they are better off

[00:28:32] [SPEAKER_02]: now it's really difficult to resolve some of these jobs issues

[00:28:36] [SPEAKER_02]: you're right because of the pandemic so Biden has presided over

[00:28:41] [SPEAKER_02]: record increases in jobs but it's hard to sort of say that

[00:28:45] [SPEAKER_02]: that's a fair comparison given that

[00:28:48] [SPEAKER_00]: so many were lost exactly because of the pandemic but I mean but if you look at

[00:28:52] [SPEAKER_00]: just generally I mean people are saying we're heading in the wrong direction

[00:28:55] [SPEAKER_00]: I wonder what they are looking at because unemployment is low

[00:28:59] [SPEAKER_00]: inflation is coming down faster than just about anywhere in the world

[00:29:02] [SPEAKER_00]: Interest rates cuts around the corner? Exactly they're going to get three interest rate cuts

[00:29:06] [SPEAKER_00]: possibly four maybe one percentage of cuts before the end of the year

[00:29:11] [SPEAKER_00]: with more next year probably down to 3% by the middle of next year so I mean all of that

[00:29:16] [SPEAKER_00]: is looking pretty good so wondering what way

[00:29:18] [SPEAKER_00]: is the economy heading in the wrong direction or are they just saying the economy is heading in the wrong direction because we've got too many migrants

[00:29:24] [SPEAKER_02]: so there's that answer to every question. I mean if you watch Fox News you would think that

[00:29:28] [SPEAKER_02]: we're in the midst of a recession right now so some of it is just political messages

[00:29:32] [SPEAKER_02]: by partisan media and I think there is sort of a legitimate

[00:29:36] [SPEAKER_02]: gripe that lots of Americans have which is that even if inflation

[00:29:40] [SPEAKER_02]: has cooled and it certainly has it's been you know considerable

[00:29:44] [SPEAKER_02]: prices are still up 30-40%

[00:29:47] [SPEAKER_02]: relative to the pre-pandemic level so they're not going back

[00:29:50] [SPEAKER_02]: of course wages have increased not across the entirety of the

[00:29:56] [SPEAKER_02]: income distribution but they have increased but I think really it's just about

[00:29:59] [SPEAKER_02]: sort of what news people are consuming it has a huge

[00:30:03] [SPEAKER_01]: effect on their mood. Well let's take that because that's an interesting point of what people consume

[00:30:07] [SPEAKER_01]: and the sort of classic caricature probably wrong picture of a

[00:30:11] [SPEAKER_01]: Fox News washer is you know an older guy white in his vest

[00:30:15] [SPEAKER_01]: sitting inside not doing anything yeah man it's almost like GB News

[00:30:19] [SPEAKER_01]: here but I mean is this so that is exactly how

[00:30:23] [SPEAKER_01]: God just just here by the way in his vest. Of course.

[00:30:27] [SPEAKER_01]: I'm interested in a suit anyway but is this an age election

[00:30:31] [SPEAKER_01]: Thomas because you know when you think about what happened obviously to do with

[00:30:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Biden stepping down that was an age thing when you look at Carmel Harris and

[00:30:39] [SPEAKER_01]: Walsh they're both late 50s early 60s

[00:30:42] [SPEAKER_01]: and you look at Trump who is not quite as old as Biden but not far off and perhaps

[00:30:47] [SPEAKER_01]: the core voters on each side is that what this is all about do you think?

[00:30:51] [SPEAKER_02]: It could be I mean it's certainly Americans were clamoring for something different

[00:30:55] [SPEAKER_02]: and we have the so-called double haters who didn't want Joe Biden

[00:30:59] [SPEAKER_02]: or Donald Trump to be elected now that's changed the percentage of double

[00:31:03] [SPEAKER_02]: haters as a fraction of the electorate has dwindled considerably. I think

[00:31:07] [SPEAKER_02]: Americans were just looking for a change they're looking for generational change

[00:31:10] [SPEAKER_02]: they want something fresh they want something new they want something you know

[00:31:14] [SPEAKER_02]: dynamic and to a large extent I think we can you know attribute

[00:31:18] [SPEAKER_02]: Kamala Harris's rise in the polls over the last couple of weeks to that

[00:31:22] [SPEAKER_02]: because it's hard to know what else to attribute it to I mean if you just

[00:31:26] [SPEAKER_02]: looked at her polling numbers while she was vice president they were historically low

[00:31:30] [SPEAKER_02]: they hadn't been that low for the first term of the president since

[00:31:34] [SPEAKER_02]: Dan Quail and now the Democratic Party seems

[00:31:38] [SPEAKER_02]: completely enamored with her and so I think some of it is just

[00:31:42] [SPEAKER_02]: they want to change you know just not satisfied with the status quo

[00:31:46] [SPEAKER_02]: want to change and Kamala Harris gives that and particularly in the contrast

[00:31:50] [SPEAKER_02]: it now it's it really is someone new someone fresh relative to Trump

[00:31:54] [SPEAKER_02]: who now kind of looks but in your heart of hearts you don't think that's going to be enough to I don't

[00:31:58] [SPEAKER_02]: I mean as I said before I would not want to make a bet on

[00:32:02] [SPEAKER_02]: the election right now and as I suggest given the given the

[00:32:05] [SPEAKER_02]: wrong last time I make predictions yeah so let well and look

[00:32:10] [SPEAKER_00]: you know dark here's another compelling email I need to know

[00:32:13] [SPEAKER_00]: are you still voting for me after the deep state kick Joe

[00:32:18] [SPEAKER_00]: out of the election and replaced him with the dangerous liberal Kamala I'm sick

[00:32:22] [SPEAKER_00]: of listening to vicious lies from the fake news media obviously block capital letters

[00:32:25] [SPEAKER_00]: I want to hear from true Trump patriots like you she got that wrong

[00:32:29] [SPEAKER_00]: the day is over before the days ever I'm asking my stronger supporters to fill out

[00:32:33] [SPEAKER_00]: the sample Trump ballot so that's presumably a ballot that will show that 100%

[00:32:38] [SPEAKER_00]: of Trump supporters support Trump Democrats think we're finished

[00:32:42] [SPEAKER_00]: but I need your response to show them the mega revolution is just getting started

[00:32:46] [SPEAKER_00]: with your support of this very critical moment we will demolish the

[00:32:49] [SPEAKER_00]: deep state and take back our country from the corrupt ruling class

[00:32:53] [SPEAKER_00]: but that can't happen without you friend

[00:32:56] [SPEAKER_00]: click on the red button it's compelling isn't it yeah it's

[00:33:01] [SPEAKER_00]: how to respond to that

[00:33:04] [SPEAKER_00]: it's easy and take the poll is America ready for someone who's not white

[00:33:09] [SPEAKER_00]: and no man is it can happen I mean I think that it can happen remember

[00:33:13] [SPEAKER_02]: Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and also

[00:33:17] [SPEAKER_02]: Hillary Clinton received the majority of the popular vote in

[00:33:21] [SPEAKER_02]: 2016 so I think it definitely can happen I think Americans are ready

[00:33:25] [SPEAKER_02]: for it certainly a craving among sections

[00:33:29] [SPEAKER_02]: of the electorate for diversity and particularly for that to be

[00:33:33] [SPEAKER_02]: represented at the political top so it's certainly not the case that Kamala Harris

[00:33:37] [SPEAKER_02]: can't win it is notable though that she's framing herself

[00:33:41] [SPEAKER_02]: as the underdog candidate I mean she's used that

[00:33:45] [SPEAKER_02]: phrase multiple times just in the last few days so she's

[00:33:49] [SPEAKER_02]: and I think that's because it's easier to run this kind of insurgent campaign

[00:33:53] [SPEAKER_02]: to the extent that you could say I'm a Washington outsider despite the fact that she's been

[00:33:57] [SPEAKER_02]: inside Washington for the last four years but basically you know someone that hasn't

[00:34:01] [SPEAKER_02]: held power herself as opposed to Trump well Trump wanted to drain

[00:34:05] [SPEAKER_01]: the swamp but basically he was the swamp so that was an irony in and of itself

[00:34:09] [SPEAKER_01]: but you still think in your heart of hearts essentially what is it that's going to stop

[00:34:13] [SPEAKER_01]: her winning then just the fact that she can't respond in policy terms

[00:34:17] [SPEAKER_01]: or she's not good at interviews I mean what is it that you're saying it all rests on the debates

[00:34:22] [SPEAKER_00]: irrespective of how many million are spent in slick advertising

[00:34:25] [SPEAKER_00]: messages it all rests on the debate or interviews is that fair to say

[00:34:29] [SPEAKER_02]: or interviews yeah yeah I mean it's hard to know I mean this is kind of a

[00:34:33] [SPEAKER_02]: gut instinct feeling that I have maybe it's because I'm in central Pennsylvania

[00:34:37] [SPEAKER_02]: here and all I see are Trump flags in a county that's about 70%

[00:34:42] [SPEAKER_02]: Republican so that could certainly be coloring my judgment I do think that

[00:34:45] [SPEAKER_02]: 2024 is going to be a referendum on Trump

[00:34:50] [SPEAKER_02]: almost exclusively it's like do Americans want

[00:34:53] [SPEAKER_02]: four more years of Trump or do they not I just think that he has

[00:34:57] [SPEAKER_02]: such a strong base of support that is going to come out for him

[00:35:01] [SPEAKER_02]: I do think that despite the fact that the economy has

[00:35:06] [SPEAKER_02]: improved considerably in terms of some of the metrics we talked about

[00:35:09] [SPEAKER_02]: there's still a very large subsection of the population that feels that they are being left behind

[00:35:14] [SPEAKER_02]: I think no one taps into that disillusionment

[00:35:17] [SPEAKER_02]: better than Donald Trump but again it's interesting isn't it because the UK

[00:35:21] [SPEAKER_00]: approach to that would be to say we'll create more welfare for you

[00:35:25] [SPEAKER_00]: you know if you're being left behind we'll put money at that issue whereas

[00:35:30] [SPEAKER_00]: in America that doesn't seem to be the issue so one final question that we might have asked you this before

[00:35:34] [SPEAKER_00]: but I know it's in everyone's mind if Trump loses

[00:35:38] [SPEAKER_02]: does America burn? Yeah that's I think that is something that we need to be really concerned about

[00:35:43] [SPEAKER_02]: this is going to be a close election and you know

[00:35:46] [SPEAKER_02]: I think it's entirely plausible that if Trump loses or

[00:35:50] [SPEAKER_02]: you know loses by a little or a lot he's going to say

[00:35:54] [SPEAKER_02]: this election was rigged how do we know that because that's what he did in 2020

[00:35:57] [SPEAKER_02]: and we know that his supporters or at least a large section of his supporters

[00:36:01] [SPEAKER_02]: are going to believe him I still think

[00:36:05] [SPEAKER_02]: despite all of the strains and tests to democracy that we have seen

[00:36:09] [SPEAKER_02]: particularly around January 6th that American institutions

[00:36:13] [SPEAKER_02]: are strong they're resilient and they can deal with this kind of challenge

[00:36:17] [SPEAKER_02]: but even a

[00:36:21] [SPEAKER_02]: relatively small fraction of people who think they're going to either take up arms

[00:36:25] [SPEAKER_02]: or some way challenge the ruling elite

[00:36:29] [SPEAKER_02]: that can be a real problem so there definitely needs to be

[00:36:33] [SPEAKER_00]: vigilance here heading into the election. Yeah right Thomas before we if we talk to you

[00:36:37] [SPEAKER_00]: again in any future can you just head to California or somewhere just so it's not

[00:36:41] [SPEAKER_00]: quite so many Republican flags just so we can get perhaps a bit more of a balance to be able to

[00:36:45] [SPEAKER_01]: be more of an instant. Thomas thank you so much for being with us again

[00:36:50] [SPEAKER_01]: and yeah we won't hold you to any of your predictions but we may come back and ask you

[00:36:53] [SPEAKER_00]: what happened. How delighted you are. Thanks very much. Good talk Thomas thanks

[00:36:57] [SPEAKER_00]: of course it actually really doesn't matter who's in charge running the government

[00:37:01] [SPEAKER_00]: because we all know it's all run by central banks anyway. Indeed and they're running the economy so that's

[00:37:05] [SPEAKER_00]: and they are all meeting at the moment at Jackson Hole

[00:37:09] [SPEAKER_00]: at Jackson Hole Symposium this is where they all get together and they talk

[00:37:13] [SPEAKER_00]: central bank stuff it's sort of like the glamour week for the

[00:37:17] [SPEAKER_00]: central bank industry you know. It's the deep state

[00:37:21] [SPEAKER_01]: meeting. Yes it's the conspiracy the international

[00:37:23] [SPEAKER_00]: the Illuminati probably. Yeah probably yes so how are they going to solve the world's

[00:37:28] [SPEAKER_00]: problems or are they? Yeah or do they actually have any impact whatsoever.

[00:37:32] [SPEAKER_01]: We have debated this before but now we have more evidence that essentially things like

[00:37:36] [SPEAKER_01]: interest rates things like well how you deal with inflation seem always

[00:37:40] [SPEAKER_00]: beyond that control. I was saying you know one thing that it's I mean even though you know the

[00:37:44] [SPEAKER_00]: observation was made lots of economists don't agree with this I'd say you can find almost as many

[00:37:47] [SPEAKER_00]: economists that do agree that actually inflation is part of it is

[00:37:51] [SPEAKER_00]: margins being pushed up by businesses because they've had the opportunity to do that

[00:37:55] [SPEAKER_00]: so price control is not particularly you know welcomed

[00:37:59] [SPEAKER_00]: by economists but maybe if you had them maybe that would be

[00:38:03] [SPEAKER_00]: sounding like a Labour government in the 1970s. Well or you know places

[00:38:07] [SPEAKER_00]: like you can look at Switzerland's an interesting example of a country that

[00:38:11] [SPEAKER_00]: has had very little and we can talk about this next week how have they avoid

[00:38:15] [SPEAKER_00]: you know their inflation got up to something like one and a half percent. My god.

[00:38:18] [SPEAKER_00]: You know and their interest rates similarly so so how come right stuck in the middle

[00:38:23] [SPEAKER_00]: of Europe where you've got inflation that got worse than it did here

[00:38:27] [SPEAKER_00]: at its worst I think didn't it got over any we got over got over 10% same as

[00:38:31] [SPEAKER_00]: we did how did they avoid it? Table around.

[00:38:35] [SPEAKER_00]: Just the price of table and didn't increase too much. They made the bars smaller

[00:38:39] [SPEAKER_00]: but they also had hefty tariffs

[00:38:43] [SPEAKER_00]: which they got rid of interestingly at the beginning of this year so the tariffs

[00:38:46] [SPEAKER_00]: disappeared so that might have had a taste of next week's debate

[00:38:50] [SPEAKER_01]: while we find someone who knows about central bankers and discuss whether or not

[00:38:54] [SPEAKER_00]: they know what the hell they're doing. Yes and you know have they got inflation fixed

[00:38:58] [SPEAKER_00]: by the process that they're following at the moment and what will come out of

[00:39:02] [SPEAKER_00]: this little get together they've got well the deep state get together

[00:39:06] [SPEAKER_00]: in the middle of Wyoming. You are a Trump supporter definitely

[00:39:10] [SPEAKER_00]: right that's actually got the y curve thanks for your company today we'll see you next week.