Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing.
[00:00:03] A year since Hamas fighters crossed into southern Israel and killed more than 1,200 Israelis.
[00:00:10] A year that's seen more than 40,000 Palestinians and thousands of Lebanese also lose their lives,
[00:00:15] including much of the leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas.
[00:00:18] So where have the pieces fallen now?
[00:00:20] How close is a regional war?
[00:00:22] Will Israel and Iran hold back from a further escalation that could draw in much of the Arab world and the West?
[00:00:28] Is there any hope on any front of a ceasefire?
[00:00:32] The Why Curve
[00:00:35] Yeah, so that is the question, isn't it?
[00:00:36] If there is a ceasefire, what form is it going to take?
[00:00:39] But more importantly, I mean, who is actually going to broker it?
[00:00:42] Because it seems like, you know, we've got Egypt trying to do their best.
[00:00:46] But are they the right ones to actually try and bring these two nations together?
[00:00:50] I don't think Egypt, to be honest, is much of a player in this.
[00:00:53] The forces out there, the big forces, the forces that matter, Israel, Iran and the US.
[00:01:00] And at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a will to push towards a ceasefire of any kind, either in Gaza or in Lebanon.
[00:01:07] I think the fundamental issue of it all is the position in political terms of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu,
[00:01:13] who had been hugely unpopular up until really about a month ago,
[00:01:17] now with this new front in Lebanon, you know, that's one thing most Israelis can agree on,
[00:01:22] is that they want to hit Hezbollah.
[00:01:24] So he's suddenly gained a lot more in popularity, but none of the problems are changed.
[00:01:29] I mean, the hostages are still there, those that survive in Gaza.
[00:01:33] Israel getting bogged down in a land war in southern Lebanon very rarely goes well.
[00:01:39] And, of course, what is Iran going to do?
[00:01:40] And indeed, what is Israel going to do in response to Iran's attack?
[00:01:44] So if there was a good outcome, I wonder what that would look like.
[00:01:46] But the other question is, if there's a bad income outcome, where does it – what form does that take?
[00:01:53] Who gets involved?
[00:01:54] Well, that's why – yeah, that's why it really matters for everyone else.
[00:01:57] Because, you know, they would say, well, regional war in the Middle East.
[00:02:00] But everything to do with oil prices, everything to do with the politics of the US election, for heaven's sakes,
[00:02:06] and general economic malaise that would set in, I think.
[00:02:09] Because an expanding war in that part of the world is going to really cut off an awful lot of transport,
[00:02:14] what it already has through the Red Sea with what the Houthis have been doing in Yemen.
[00:02:19] So this isn't something that we can sit back and ignore.
[00:02:22] It's something that's going to keep coming.
[00:02:23] And really, I can't see what direction it will come in.
[00:02:26] Well, you know this part of the world better than most.
[00:02:28] I mean, does Iran have many friends?
[00:02:31] I mean, it's part of BRICS, isn't it?
[00:02:33] Along with India, it's the eye in BRICS.
[00:02:36] So presumably, all those other BRICS nations.
[00:02:38] I think actually it's India, but have you aware.
[00:02:40] It is India, but they in it as well.
[00:02:43] It's BRICS with two eyes.
[00:02:45] Yeah, I mean, you're right.
[00:02:46] They are all linked up.
[00:02:47] I mean, the fact is Iran exports oil.
[00:02:50] Not too much of the West, of course, because there's a sanctions issue.
[00:02:54] But it does export it to China.
[00:02:56] It certainly exports weapons to Russia.
[00:02:58] I mean, that's the interesting one.
[00:02:59] You've got a new axis, if you like, developing Russia, China, to some extent, and Iran in resistance to what they see as the push from the West, the US and Israel.
[00:03:10] So they do have some sort of friends, but it's a pretty odd mix because you've got Iran, which is fundamentalist in religious terms, linking up with both China and Russia, neither of which are particularly friendly towards their own Muslim minorities.
[00:03:24] So it's a very, very odd setup altogether.
[00:03:27] Right.
[00:03:27] And so how does it play out, Erwin, to do some of those supposed friends actually show their true colours and go, well, actually, we're not going to support you on this?
[00:03:35] Possibly.
[00:03:36] Could Iran be left on its own, in other words?
[00:03:38] It could.
[00:03:38] And I mean, what I've seen from people who seem to know about these things, suggesting that there are also issues to do with internal situation in Iran.
[00:03:45] I mean, is this something which begins to change the politics of Iran's, what Israel would like to happen, with people saying, actually, we've had enough of the mullahs being in charge?
[00:03:54] Well, let's check in with someone who really does know what they're talking about on this.
[00:03:58] And that's Simon Mabin.
[00:03:59] He's professor of international politics at Lancaster University and joins us now.
[00:04:02] So, Simon, I mean, clearly Netanyahu is going for a change of the shape of the Middle East, isn't he?
[00:04:09] He's not going to settle for anything unless the, not the boundaries physically are redefined, but certainly the mix of attitudes and the prevalence of power in the Middle East.
[00:04:24] He wants to see all of that back in balance.
[00:04:26] Yeah, it certainly seems that way.
[00:04:29] You're right to mention the boundaries.
[00:04:31] There's obviously question marks about what's happening down in Gaza.
[00:04:35] There are rumours about a possible buffer zone being created in South Lebanon, but that, again, is just rumours.
[00:04:43] But I guess what he's really trying to do is change the characteristics of what we term regional order.
[00:04:50] So in the past, it had been shaped by this interplay of different actors, with Iran playing a dominant role.
[00:04:57] All its allies, his ballad, the Houthis, Hamas and the militias in Iraq playing a prominent role as well.
[00:05:05] And Netanyahu is obviously of the mindset that says, well, enough of that.
[00:05:09] We don't want a Middle East that is being shaped by a struggle for supremacy, a struggle for contestation.
[00:05:16] And he's trying to reshape the region in an image that is favourable to him, to Israel and to the United States.
[00:05:24] Is he doing that in the most effective way, though, do you think?
[00:05:27] I mean, that sounds like a conversation rather than a war.
[00:05:30] Well, I would argue it's a conversation rather than war.
[00:05:32] I mean, I'm a big advocate of diplomacy.
[00:05:34] I think there have been a number of missed opportunities here with regard to reintegrating Iran into the sort of the regional fold.
[00:05:42] The nuclear deal, for example, was one such opportunity that has been missed, that has been maybe a stronger statement would be, has been destroyed by hawks in the United States and in Israel.
[00:06:01] And that, I think, would have been a more pragmatic way of reimagining what the Middle East could look like.
[00:06:38] Through dialogue and through economic integration.
[00:06:41] And that seems to be holding.
[00:06:42] So I would argue that that was a very strong way of doing it.
[00:06:46] As we sit now, the pieces, where they've fallen after all that's happened over the last year and particularly, I guess, in the last few weeks.
[00:06:54] Who is in a strong position to make any of this change?
[00:06:58] I mean, the Iranians seem to have gone off half cock in a way.
[00:07:02] They didn't achieve what they wanted to achieve, I guess, in terms of the attack on Israel.
[00:07:07] The United States seems to be impotent, really, in terms of influencing what the Israelis do.
[00:07:12] And the Israelis, self-evidently, can only go so far in their machinations.
[00:07:17] So who's in power and what could change now in real terms?
[00:07:21] Well, a lot could change in real terms.
[00:07:23] If we were having this conversation last week, we would have been recording just before this huge attack launched by Iran.
[00:07:32] And that seemed to change the dynamics of how things were playing out.
[00:07:37] We're yet to see an Israeli retaliation, although Israeli and American officials have been saying that there will be one.
[00:07:44] It's just what is the nature of that retaliation?
[00:07:47] What do you think they would do?
[00:07:48] The Israelis might do it.
[00:07:49] Because you addressed that point.
[00:07:50] It's clearly a vexed one.
[00:07:52] Are they going to hit the nuclear facilities?
[00:07:54] Are they going to hit the oil facilities?
[00:07:55] Are they going to hit the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard?
[00:07:58] What do you think is likely?
[00:07:59] In this respect, we've got to ask the question about what the Israelis want to do and what Israel's allies want them to do.
[00:08:07] So if we listen to what Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying for the past three decades, he's been advocating for a very hard line to be taken on Iran.
[00:08:16] I mean, going back, his speeches at the United Nations have all been incredibly strict, hard line.
[00:08:24] He gave a speech where he talked about Iran being a nuclear duck and calling Iran out for being a nuclear duck and essentially calling for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
[00:08:35] We know that he then worked very hard to undermine the nuclear deal.
[00:08:40] So there's a very clear ideological bent there.
[00:08:43] And I think that is evident that there is an appetite for that.
[00:08:47] But in Washington, in London, elsewhere, there is a clear realisation that if Israel does strike against the nuclear sites in Iran, then that would provoke a dramatic escalation.
[00:09:01] And that would be the sort of thing that very easily could draw in lots of different players into a region-wide conflict.
[00:09:09] Well, let's look at what those regional players could be in just a second.
[00:09:12] But when we go, let's go back to this idea of rebalancing.
[00:09:14] You know, he wants to rebalance the region.
[00:09:18] What exactly, and I don't think anyone's ever asked him this question about specifically what he means by that.
[00:09:23] Does he, for example, want to see a democracy restored in Lebanon?
[00:09:27] Does he want to see the Ayatollah overthrown in Iran?
[00:09:30] What would make him happy?
[00:09:31] What does this rebalancing entail, do you think?
[00:09:33] Well, it's a really good question because I think it's multifaceted.
[00:09:37] I think, and this is pure speculation on my part.
[00:09:40] I don't know what is going on in his strategic calculations.
[00:09:44] But if I was to hazard a guess, it would be that he wants there to be space around Israel or there to be security for Israelis.
[00:09:54] And of course, that is a perfectly rational, pragmatic thing to do.
[00:09:58] You want Israeli citizens to be safe from a perceived terrorist threat from any of its neighbours.
[00:10:05] So we go back, we saw peace deals with Egypt to prevent that.
[00:10:08] We saw peace deals with Jordan to prevent that.
[00:10:11] Obviously, it's not happened with Hamas.
[00:10:13] It's not happened with Hezbollah.
[00:10:14] So that is one thing.
[00:10:16] I would then argue he wants to try and disconnect any type of regional sponsorship for Hamas and Hezbollah
[00:10:27] to prevent them from doing anything like October 7 again in the future.
[00:10:33] So that would be the secondary dimension.
[00:10:35] But if we're going to do that, in his mind, the key sponsor or Netanyahu and others advising him is Iran.
[00:10:46] And the question is, does that then necessitate doing something to bring down Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran?
[00:10:55] And what's interesting is we see the son of the former Shah of Iran who was forced to abdicate in 1979.
[00:11:03] He's been doing a lot of stuff speaking in English about the need to topple the Islamic Republic.
[00:11:10] And I think that there are some in Israel who would hope for some form of opposition coalescing around him,
[00:11:19] around the son of the Shah, that would be a different way of doing regional politics.
[00:11:25] But Simon, that's been happening.
[00:11:26] There's a long, long history of the opposition, whether it's the son of the Shah or various other groups trying to overthrow.
[00:11:33] I mean, at the moment, looking from the outside, you'd have to say that the Iranian situation is OK.
[00:11:40] It's not great. They're not having a great time economically, socially.
[00:11:44] Of course, all the riots about the poor girl who was killed for wearing the wrong headgear.
[00:11:49] But actually, it doesn't look as if it's crumbling, does it?
[00:11:52] No. And I think what we start to see is a rally around the flag effect.
[00:11:56] I've been speaking with Iranian friends over the past week or so,
[00:11:59] when there is a very, very strong support for opposition to Israel.
[00:12:05] And that's hardly surprising in light of everything that's happened over the past year.
[00:12:09] The Palestinian cause resonates very, very clearly in Iran.
[00:12:13] And Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Iran.
[00:12:17] I think that matters.
[00:12:20] It's essentially cultivated a rally around the flag effect.
[00:12:23] And even though Iran is in a really dire state economically,
[00:12:28] it isn't going to bring about a sort of fall of the system of al-Yat-i-Fakhir,
[00:12:36] which is the regency of the jurists, the political system in Iran.
[00:12:39] That's not going to happen from within.
[00:12:41] It's not going to be a revolutionary moment triggered by everything that's happened over the past year or the past few months.
[00:12:47] So, yeah, I think it's a very tricky situation there.
[00:12:52] There's certainly not going to be a revolution against the supreme leader.
[00:12:56] So if we do see major attacks on Iran, whatever they're targeting,
[00:13:01] if they're targeting oil, if they're targeting nuclear facilities,
[00:13:03] if we see, you know, or maybe, you know, even try to take out the Ayatollah,
[00:13:08] if we see some sort of, you know, major disturbance coming from Israel,
[00:13:14] who is going to step to Iran's aid?
[00:13:17] How could this escalate?
[00:13:18] Well, I guess there's different ways that this could play out.
[00:13:23] Depending on the target depends on the severity of any type of response.
[00:13:30] I think before I answer, maybe I can just stress that in my mind,
[00:13:35] I don't think Iran wants this escalation.
[00:13:37] Iran is in a bind, as you're saying economically.
[00:13:41] It doesn't necessarily want to be drawn into a regional conflict,
[00:13:45] but I think it's found itself in a bit of a bind here that if it doesn't respond,
[00:13:50] if it didn't do something like last week in response to the killing of Hassan Nasrallah
[00:13:57] and others, then it would have lost some of the ability to exert influence
[00:14:04] and derive what it sees to be legitimacy from this narrative of resistance.
[00:14:10] So it's sort of in a bit of a bind there.
[00:14:12] It doesn't want to respond.
[00:14:13] It didn't want to necessarily escalate the situation,
[00:14:16] but it felt it had no choice but to escalate.
[00:14:19] Like we saw back in April, in fact, that was the argument given, wasn't it?
[00:14:22] That they actually didn't try too hard.
[00:14:23] It was a demonstration.
[00:14:26] Exactly, yeah.
[00:14:26] It wasn't expected to be particularly effective in it,
[00:14:29] and it wasn't.
[00:14:29] This one wasn't terribly effective either.
[00:14:31] But it was a different kind of thing.
[00:14:33] This was ballistic missiles, and there's some evidence they did do some damage in Israel,
[00:14:39] not casualties, but certainly to military bases.
[00:14:42] So it wasn't the same thing.
[00:14:43] No, it was a different level, but I think this is part of the escalatory cycle,
[00:14:47] the spiral of tit-for-tat moves that we're seeing.
[00:14:51] And speaking to some Iranians last week,
[00:14:54] I was struck that they feel sort of resigned to being pulled into this spiral,
[00:15:01] sort of a spiral and a competition for escalatory dominance.
[00:15:05] And that links back to ideas of deterrence
[00:15:07] and this idea of trying to create a situation where Iran can say
[00:15:12] we can deter an attack against any of our allies
[00:15:16] or against Iranian territory itself.
[00:15:19] And Israel is trying to say, no, you can't.
[00:15:21] So this is one of the dangers of the situation,
[00:15:24] that we're sort of spiralling into a situation
[00:15:26] that at least one party doesn't necessarily want to get drawn into,
[00:15:30] but is drawn into.
[00:15:31] And the reason it's important, I think, going back to your question,
[00:15:34] is because it needs to have that ability to rely on support
[00:15:39] from the Houthis in Yemen, from the militias in Iraq,
[00:15:43] from Hamas, from Hezbollah, from these groups.
[00:15:49] Because if we look at the power dynamics between Iran and Israel militarily,
[00:15:55] there's a huge imbalance.
[00:15:57] Israel is the dominant military power in the region,
[00:16:00] if we ignore the US.
[00:16:01] But Simon, what we haven't talked about really in any of this
[00:16:04] is, of course, the other big chunk of it,
[00:16:06] and the thing that it's the cause of all of it,
[00:16:08] which is the situation of the Palestinians.
[00:16:10] Now, we know that what's going on in Gaza,
[00:16:13] we know it continues, perhaps not at the same intensity,
[00:16:16] of the Israelis essentially bombing what remains of Hamas.
[00:16:20] Hamas still able, it seems, to fire a couple of rockets into Israel
[00:16:24] on the October 7th anniversary.
[00:16:26] And, of course, we also know that there have been activity
[00:16:29] by illegal settlers in the West Bank, Jewish settlers,
[00:16:32] violence against Palestinians there.
[00:16:34] Is there a sense, any idea of how damaged Hamas is,
[00:16:39] it still can do something,
[00:16:40] and whether Israel itself has any concept of the endgame in any of this?
[00:16:44] And if I can add another question to that as well,
[00:16:46] just how accepted are or were Hamas
[00:16:50] before what we saw in October 7th last year?
[00:16:53] So, I mean, is Israel right to attack them in that,
[00:16:57] you know, maybe they were ready for overthrow,
[00:16:59] or maybe people weren't too happy about Hamas,
[00:17:02] and, you know, there needed to be a change?
[00:17:04] Obviously, totally gone away the wrong way,
[00:17:06] if that was the intention.
[00:17:08] But were they popular,
[00:17:09] or did people see that they were perhaps oppressed
[00:17:12] by their own regime?
[00:17:13] So, I think the tricky thing here
[00:17:17] is that we've got a Palestinian set of territories,
[00:17:21] the occupied Palestinian territories,
[00:17:23] and I'm using the word occupied
[00:17:24] as the British government uses the word occupied.
[00:17:28] So, the occupied Palestinian territories
[00:17:30] are split between Gaza and the West Bank.
[00:17:32] Gaza has been dominated by Hamas,
[00:17:34] which was an elected political entity.
[00:17:38] Quite a while ago.
[00:17:40] Yeah, we're talking close to 20 years ago now.
[00:17:43] And they were elected in the sense that
[00:17:46] they offered a degree of opposition to Israel.
[00:17:51] Gaza was caught in a blockade.
[00:17:53] The people of Gaza,
[00:17:55] a few million people,
[00:17:56] were left with little choice.
[00:17:58] There was a real sense of abandonment.
[00:18:00] They didn't have a sense of hope at all.
[00:18:05] And Hamas, I guess,
[00:18:07] offered a degree of that.
[00:18:08] That doesn't necessarily mean
[00:18:09] that they were universally popular in Gaza.
[00:18:12] And then, if we compare that to the West Bank, though,
[00:18:15] some of the most virulent criticisms
[00:18:17] of Hamas that I have ever heard
[00:18:20] have been from Palestinians.
[00:18:22] Palestinians in the West Bank.
[00:18:23] And this goes back years before October 7
[00:18:27] and, indeed, after October 7.
[00:18:29] There has been a real hard criticism
[00:18:33] of the way in which Hamas has sought to impose
[00:18:36] their particular vision of Islam,
[00:18:40] a very fundamentalist, literalist,
[00:18:42] anachronistic vision of Islam
[00:18:44] over Palestinian life.
[00:18:46] And speaking with friends from the West Bank,
[00:18:49] they were deeply distrusting of Hamas.
[00:18:54] They were deeply angry
[00:18:55] at what Hamas was doing,
[00:18:58] both in Gaza and in the West Bank.
[00:18:59] So there's a difference, I think,
[00:19:03] to be made,
[00:19:04] a distinction to be made
[00:19:05] between the life of Palestinians in Gaza
[00:19:08] and the life of Palestinians in the West Bank.
[00:19:11] But what we're starting to see
[00:19:13] post-October 7,
[00:19:15] increasingly in the past few weeks,
[00:19:17] is that there has been
[00:19:19] a growing sense of military activity
[00:19:21] in the West Bank
[00:19:23] directed at the Palestinians there.
[00:19:25] And we see that both
[00:19:27] through the actions of settlers,
[00:19:30] as you've alluded to,
[00:19:32] but also with the Israeli defense forces.
[00:19:35] There was a bombing in Tulkaram,
[00:19:37] a city in the West Bank
[00:19:39] the other day,
[00:19:39] that killed a huge number of people.
[00:19:42] And so we're starting to see
[00:19:44] violence ratcheting up
[00:19:45] in the West Bank itself
[00:19:47] to go with everything
[00:19:48] that's happening in Gaza.
[00:19:50] And the situation in Gaza
[00:19:51] is devastating.
[00:19:51] It's bleak.
[00:19:52] There is a real destruction
[00:19:55] and evisceration
[00:19:56] of the way of life
[00:19:57] that was there, of course.
[00:20:00] And we're starting to see
[00:20:02] increasing violence
[00:20:03] in the West Bank as well.
[00:20:04] So is this an intention
[00:20:06] by Netanyahu and his advisors?
[00:20:08] Do they have a vision,
[00:20:09] whether it's in Gaza
[00:20:10] or in the West Bank
[00:20:11] or both,
[00:20:12] of what they want to see
[00:20:13] in the end
[00:20:14] as far as Israel,
[00:20:15] the land of Israel itself
[00:20:17] and its neighbors is concerned?
[00:20:19] And they see,
[00:20:20] you know,
[00:20:21] in a way,
[00:20:21] forcing Palestinians out
[00:20:23] or something as radical as that.
[00:20:24] Do they have a vision
[00:20:25] of how all this is going to end?
[00:20:27] Well,
[00:20:28] it's this question
[00:20:29] that I've been asked
[00:20:31] countless times
[00:20:32] over the past year.
[00:20:33] What is the vision
[00:20:34] for the day after?
[00:20:36] And the short answer is
[00:20:38] I don't think they know,
[00:20:40] partly because I think
[00:20:41] there are lots of different visions.
[00:20:43] And this reflects
[00:20:45] the increasingly fragmented,
[00:20:48] increasingly polarized nature
[00:20:49] of Israeli society.
[00:20:51] And by that,
[00:20:52] I mean divisions around
[00:20:54] what it means
[00:20:55] to have a sort of
[00:20:56] a sense of security,
[00:20:58] but also
[00:20:59] what
[00:21:00] what does it mean
[00:21:02] to have
[00:21:03] a sort of
[00:21:03] an ideological
[00:21:05] vision
[00:21:06] of
[00:21:06] the land of Israel?
[00:21:08] Now,
[00:21:09] historically,
[00:21:09] there were settlements
[00:21:10] in Gaza itself.
[00:21:12] There was a
[00:21:12] disengagement
[00:21:13] that took place
[00:21:16] 19 years ago,
[00:21:17] I think,
[00:21:17] if I'm correct.
[00:21:19] Yep,
[00:21:19] 2005,
[00:21:20] I was there.
[00:21:21] Excellent.
[00:21:21] Thank you for correcting me
[00:21:23] and reminding me
[00:21:24] I'm right.
[00:21:24] Yeah,
[00:21:25] so there was
[00:21:26] the disengagement law
[00:21:27] that was hugely
[00:21:29] controversial
[00:21:29] that saw
[00:21:31] saw Jewish settlers
[00:21:33] from Gaza
[00:21:34] turning on
[00:21:37] Israeli forces
[00:21:39] and fighting back
[00:21:40] against Israeli forces
[00:21:41] who were destroying
[00:21:43] settlements.
[00:21:44] And this was
[00:21:45] to do with demographics,
[00:21:46] to do with
[00:21:47] broader Israeli
[00:21:49] strategic concerns
[00:21:50] about what it
[00:21:50] would mean
[00:21:51] to be in control
[00:21:53] of particular
[00:21:54] parts of land.
[00:21:56] But
[00:21:56] the reason I bring this up
[00:21:57] is because
[00:21:58] the religious right
[00:22:00] is gaining
[00:22:01] influence
[00:22:02] across Israel
[00:22:03] and the religious right,
[00:22:05] parts of it,
[00:22:06] messianic parts,
[00:22:08] have got
[00:22:09] a particular vision
[00:22:10] for what
[00:22:11] a land of Israel
[00:22:12] should be.
[00:22:14] And that includes
[00:22:15] Gaza.
[00:22:16] That includes
[00:22:17] the West Banks.
[00:22:19] There's talk
[00:22:20] of annexing,
[00:22:21] there's talk
[00:22:21] of settling
[00:22:22] again
[00:22:23] in Gaza.
[00:22:25] and I think
[00:22:26] this is part
[00:22:27] of the issue
[00:22:27] that
[00:22:27] the conversations
[00:22:30] about the day
[00:22:31] after aren't
[00:22:32] necessarily
[00:22:32] coalescing around
[00:22:33] one particular
[00:22:34] vision,
[00:22:35] but rather
[00:22:36] are emblematic
[00:22:38] of
[00:22:38] the
[00:22:39] theological,
[00:22:41] ideological,
[00:22:42] political,
[00:22:43] and economic
[00:22:44] divisions
[00:22:44] that are
[00:22:45] starting to
[00:22:46] shape the
[00:22:48] contours of
[00:22:48] Israeli society
[00:22:49] and Israeli
[00:22:50] politics.
[00:22:50] So surely
[00:22:51] the West
[00:22:51] would want
[00:22:52] a clear
[00:22:52] idea
[00:22:52] of that
[00:22:53] before they
[00:22:54] supported
[00:22:54] Israel
[00:22:55] any further.
[00:22:56] Because if
[00:22:56] that was
[00:22:57] the end
[00:22:58] game,
[00:22:58] obviously
[00:22:59] that is
[00:22:59] just not
[00:23:00] acceptable
[00:23:00] to the rest
[00:23:01] of the world
[00:23:02] for anyone
[00:23:02] outside Israel
[00:23:03] and half
[00:23:04] of Israel
[00:23:05] I would
[00:23:05] imagine
[00:23:05] at the very
[00:23:06] least.
[00:23:07] If that's
[00:23:08] the end
[00:23:08] game,
[00:23:08] surely
[00:23:08] we'd want
[00:23:09] to be
[00:23:09] clear on
[00:23:09] that
[00:23:09] before we
[00:23:10] sold
[00:23:10] more arms.
[00:23:11] You'd
[00:23:11] have
[00:23:11] thought.
[00:23:12] Yeah.
[00:23:13] It's
[00:23:15] a really
[00:23:15] peculiar
[00:23:16] one
[00:23:16] in the
[00:23:16] sense
[00:23:16] that
[00:23:17] growing
[00:23:19] numbers
[00:23:19] of
[00:23:20] international
[00:23:20] lawyers,
[00:23:22] international
[00:23:23] bodies,
[00:23:24] international
[00:23:24] organizations
[00:23:24] are calling
[00:23:26] into question
[00:23:26] the legality
[00:23:27] of actions,
[00:23:28] of outcomes,
[00:23:30] and indeed
[00:23:31] of global
[00:23:33] states
[00:23:34] selling arms
[00:23:35] to Israel.
[00:23:36] And I
[00:23:38] think
[00:23:38] this is a
[00:23:39] bit of a
[00:23:42] strategic
[00:23:43] mistake
[00:23:44] being made
[00:23:45] by people
[00:23:46] when there
[00:23:46] are these
[00:23:47] legal
[00:23:48] question
[00:23:49] marks
[00:23:49] about
[00:23:50] the
[00:23:50] continuation
[00:23:51] of
[00:23:52] arms
[00:23:52] sales
[00:23:53] and
[00:23:53] arms
[00:23:53] deals
[00:23:53] with
[00:23:54] Israel
[00:23:54] given
[00:23:55] the
[00:23:56] severity
[00:23:56] of the
[00:23:57] allegations
[00:23:57] of war
[00:23:58] crimes
[00:23:58] and
[00:23:58] allegations
[00:23:59] of
[00:23:59] genocide
[00:24:00] etc.
[00:24:01] both in
[00:24:02] Gaza
[00:24:02] and in
[00:24:03] South
[00:24:04] Lebanon.
[00:24:05] Given that
[00:24:06] there are
[00:24:06] question
[00:24:06] marks
[00:24:07] about
[00:24:08] the
[00:24:09] extent
[00:24:48] of
[00:24:49] US
[00:24:49] in
[00:24:50] particular
[00:24:50] is
[00:24:51] in a
[00:24:52] state
[00:24:52] of
[00:24:53] flux
[00:24:53] in
[00:24:53] the
[00:24:53] sense
[00:24:53] that
[00:24:53] it
[00:24:54] doesn't
[00:24:54] know
[00:24:54] whether
[00:24:55] it
[00:24:55] has
[00:24:55] the
[00:24:56] ability
[00:24:56] to
[00:24:57] stop
[00:24:57] Benjamin
[00:24:58] Netanyahu
[00:24:58] and to
[00:24:59] stop
[00:24:59] what is
[00:25:00] happening
[00:25:00] in
[00:25:00] Gaza
[00:25:16] and
[00:25:16] South
[00:25:17] is
[00:25:17] very
[00:25:17] true
[00:25:18] and
[00:25:18] we
[00:25:18] know
[00:25:19] that
[00:25:19] part
[00:25:19] of
[00:25:19] the
[00:25:19] issue
[00:25:21] contributing
[00:25:21] to
[00:25:22] the
[00:25:23] devastating
[00:25:24] mess
[00:25:25] that
[00:25:25] the
[00:25:25] region
[00:25:25] is
[00:25:25] in
[00:25:25] is
[00:25:26] because
[00:25:27] this
[00:25:28] former
[00:25:28] president
[00:25:29] withdrew
[00:25:30] from
[00:25:30] the
[00:25:30] joint
[00:25:31] comprehensive
[00:25:31] plan
[00:25:31] of
[00:25:31] action
[00:25:32] the
[00:25:32] nuclear
[00:25:32] deal
[00:25:32] this
[00:25:33] was
[00:25:33] the deal
[00:25:34] with
[00:25:34] Iran
[00:25:34] that
[00:25:34] he
[00:25:35] got
[00:25:35] out
[00:25:35] of
[00:25:35] here
[00:25:35] yeah
[00:25:36] exactly
[00:25:36] so
[00:25:37] as
[00:25:37] you
[00:25:37] say
[00:25:38] there's
[00:25:38] a
[00:25:39] question
[00:25:39] about
[00:25:40] a
[00:25:41] respect
[00:25:41] for
[00:25:41] international
[00:25:42] law
[00:25:43] it's
[00:25:44] a
[00:25:44] tricky
[00:25:44] one
[00:25:44] because
[00:25:44] there's
[00:25:45] a
[00:25:45] lot
[00:25:45] of
[00:25:45] different
[00:25:45] moving
[00:25:45] parts
[00:25:46] here
[00:25:46] and
[00:25:46] there's
[00:25:46] a
[00:25:47] bit
[00:25:47] of
[00:25:47] second
[00:25:47] guessing
[00:25:47] as
[00:25:48] to
[00:25:48] what
[00:25:49] their
[00:25:51] end
[00:25:51] game
[00:25:51] is
[00:25:51] absolutely
[00:25:52] but
[00:25:52] if
[00:25:52] it
[00:26:15] would
[00:26:15] be
[00:26:16] they
[00:26:16] were
[00:26:16] surrounded
[00:26:17] by
[00:26:17] less
[00:26:18] radical
[00:26:18] countries
[00:26:19] that
[00:26:20] were
[00:26:20] democracies
[00:26:22] and
[00:26:22] you know
[00:26:23] and that's
[00:26:24] where we
[00:26:24] get into
[00:26:24] the
[00:26:25] two
[00:26:25] state
[00:26:25] solution
[00:26:25] but
[00:26:27] we
[00:26:27] seem
[00:26:27] like
[00:26:28] Israel
[00:26:29] is a
[00:26:29] long
[00:26:30] way
[00:26:30] from
[00:26:30] that
[00:26:30] and
[00:26:31] probably
[00:26:31] well
[00:26:32] obviously
[00:26:32] Hezbollah
[00:26:33] and
[00:26:33] Hamas
[00:26:34] are not
[00:26:34] going to
[00:26:34] like
[00:26:34] the
[00:26:34] idea
[00:26:35] of
[00:26:36] democracies
[00:26:36] either
[00:26:36] because
[00:26:37] they
[00:26:37] really
[00:26:37] have
[00:26:37] filled
[00:26:38] in
[00:26:38] a
[00:26:38] democratic
[00:26:39] vacuum
[00:26:39] that's
[00:26:39] why
[00:26:40] they're
[00:26:41] in
[00:26:41] existence
[00:26:41] it
[00:26:41] well
[00:26:42] to
[00:26:43] an
[00:26:43] extent
[00:26:43] but
[00:26:44] Lebanon
[00:26:44] is a
[00:26:44] democracy
[00:26:45] it
[00:26:45] has
[00:26:45] elections
[00:26:46] it
[00:26:47] has
[00:26:48] a
[00:26:48] I
[00:26:50] would
[00:26:51] say
[00:26:51] a
[00:26:52] political
[00:26:52] system
[00:26:52] that
[00:26:53] allows
[00:26:53] democratic
[00:26:54] engagement
[00:26:55] and democratic
[00:26:56] participation
[00:26:57] now part
[00:26:57] of the
[00:26:57] problem
[00:26:58] is
[00:26:58] that
[00:26:58] the
[00:26:59] democratic
[00:26:59] system
[00:27:00] that
[00:27:00] was
[00:27:00] created
[00:27:01] in
[00:27:02] Lebanon
[00:27:02] was
[00:27:11] and
[00:27:12] the
[00:27:13] power
[00:27:14] sharing
[00:27:14] agreement
[00:27:15] that
[00:27:15] was
[00:27:15] put
[00:27:15] in
[00:27:15] place
[00:27:16] which
[00:27:16] bears
[00:27:16] many
[00:27:16] of
[00:27:16] the
[00:27:17] hallmarks
[00:27:17] of
[00:27:17] what
[00:27:18] we
[00:27:18] see
[00:27:18] in
[00:27:19] Northern
[00:27:19] Ireland
[00:27:19] today
[00:27:20] sense
[00:27:20] of
[00:27:20] power
[00:27:21] sharing
[00:27:21] the
[00:27:22] distribution
[00:27:22] of
[00:27:23] key
[00:27:23] roles
[00:27:23] and
[00:27:24] ministries
[00:27:24] around
[00:27:25] the
[00:27:38] communal
[00:27:38] community
[00:27:39] so
[00:27:40] Isbollah
[00:27:41] as well
[00:27:42] as
[00:27:43] being a
[00:27:43] prescribed
[00:27:44] terrorist
[00:27:45] entity
[00:27:45] by the
[00:27:45] British
[00:27:46] government
[00:27:46] has
[00:27:47] social
[00:27:47] welfare
[00:27:48] wings
[00:27:49] has
[00:27:49] a
[00:27:49] political
[00:27:50] wing
[00:27:51] has
[00:27:51] an
[00:27:52] armed
[00:27:52] wing
[00:27:53] and
[00:27:53] that
[00:27:55] was
[00:27:55] able
[00:27:55] to
[00:27:56] I guess
[00:27:58] generate
[00:27:59] widespread
[00:27:59] support
[00:28:00] by virtue
[00:28:01] of
[00:28:01] a
[00:28:01] democratic
[00:28:02] system
[00:28:02] yeah
[00:28:02] I mean
[00:28:03] people
[00:28:04] gave
[00:28:04] analogies
[00:28:04] to me
[00:28:05] when I
[00:28:05] was
[00:28:05] there
[00:28:05] this
[00:28:05] is
[00:28:06] like
[00:28:06] in
[00:28:06] a
[00:28:06] way
[00:28:06] very
[00:28:07] different
[00:28:07] of course
[00:28:07] in
[00:28:07] some
[00:28:08] ways
[00:28:08] Sinn FĂ©in
[00:28:09] a kind
[00:28:09] of
[00:28:09] social
[00:28:10] organisation
[00:28:11] as much
[00:28:12] as anything
[00:28:12] else
[00:28:12] that was
[00:28:13] helping
[00:28:13] a particular
[00:28:14] community
[00:28:14] but I
[00:28:15] suppose
[00:28:15] the point
[00:28:15] is
[00:28:16] it's a
[00:28:17] mess
[00:28:17] we know
[00:28:17] that
[00:28:18] Lebanon
[00:28:18] is a
[00:28:18] mess
[00:28:19] and
[00:28:19] you're
[00:28:19] right
[00:28:19] a
[00:28:20] democracy
[00:28:20] but
[00:28:21] with
[00:28:21] huge
[00:28:21] caveats
[00:28:22] around
[00:28:23] that
[00:28:23] because
[00:28:23] of
[00:28:23] the
[00:28:24] way
[00:28:24] it
[00:28:24] works
[00:28:24] but
[00:28:25] it's
[00:28:26] not
[00:28:26] going
[00:28:26] away
[00:28:26] and
[00:28:26] actually
[00:28:27] Israel
[00:28:27] doesn't
[00:28:27] have
[00:28:27] claims
[00:28:28] on
[00:28:29] Lebanon
[00:28:29] so
[00:28:29] an
[00:28:29] entity
[00:28:30] called
[00:28:30] Lebanon
[00:28:31] will
[00:28:31] continue
[00:28:31] to
[00:28:31] exist
[00:28:33] how
[00:28:33] can
[00:28:34] Israel
[00:28:34] live
[00:28:34] with
[00:28:35] that
[00:28:38] it's
[00:28:38] a
[00:28:39] very
[00:28:39] serious
[00:28:39] question
[00:28:40] because
[00:28:40] Hezbollah
[00:28:41] has
[00:28:41] cultivated
[00:28:42] a lot
[00:28:44] of its
[00:28:44] support
[00:28:45] through
[00:28:46] an
[00:28:46] ability
[00:28:47] to
[00:28:47] articulate
[00:28:48] its
[00:28:48] quote
[00:28:49] unquote
[00:28:49] resistance
[00:28:50] to
[00:28:50] Israel
[00:28:50] so
[00:28:51] there
[00:28:52] is
[00:28:52] that
[00:28:52] and
[00:28:52] just
[00:28:53] on
[00:28:53] the
[00:28:53] democracy
[00:28:54] front
[00:28:55] a
[00:28:55] friend
[00:28:55] of
[00:28:55] mine
[00:28:56] who
[00:28:57] is
[00:28:57] based
[00:28:58] in
[00:28:58] Belfast
[00:28:58] referred
[00:28:59] to
[00:28:59] the
[00:28:59] Lebanese
[00:29:00] political
[00:29:00] system
[00:29:01] as a
[00:29:01] form
[00:29:01] of
[00:29:01] zombie
[00:29:02] power
[00:29:02] sharing
[00:29:03] which
[00:29:03] I
[00:29:03] thought
[00:29:03] was
[00:29:04] such
[00:29:04] a
[00:29:04] good
[00:29:04] way
[00:29:05] of
[00:29:05] capturing
[00:29:05] it
[00:29:06] because
[00:29:06] it's
[00:29:06] frozen
[00:29:06] it's
[00:29:07] frozen
[00:29:07] it's
[00:29:08] no
[00:29:09] president
[00:29:09] it's
[00:29:10] just
[00:29:10] in
[00:29:11] a
[00:29:11] bit
[00:29:11] of
[00:29:11] a
[00:29:12] state
[00:29:12] of
[00:29:12] flux
[00:29:12] well
[00:29:13] it's
[00:29:13] not
[00:29:13] quite
[00:29:13] as
[00:29:13] bad
[00:29:14] as
[00:29:14] that
[00:29:14] it
[00:29:14] doesn't
[00:29:14] work
[00:29:14] terribly
[00:29:15] well
[00:29:15] in
[00:29:15] Northern
[00:29:15] Ireland
[00:29:15] does
[00:29:16] it
[00:29:16] really
[00:29:16] but
[00:29:16] not
[00:29:18] yeah
[00:29:19] that's
[00:29:19] maybe
[00:29:19] another
[00:29:19] conversation
[00:29:20] but
[00:29:20] in
[00:29:21] terms
[00:29:22] of
[00:29:22] how
[00:29:23] does
[00:29:23] Israel
[00:29:23] exist
[00:29:24] and
[00:29:25] exist
[00:29:26] and
[00:29:26] operate
[00:29:26] in a
[00:29:27] way
[00:29:28] that
[00:29:28] is
[00:29:28] safe
[00:29:30] and
[00:29:30] allows
[00:29:30] people
[00:29:30] to go
[00:29:31] about
[00:29:31] their
[00:29:31] daily
[00:29:31] lives
[00:29:32] with
[00:29:32] a
[00:29:32] sense
[00:29:33] of
[00:29:33] Hezbollah
[00:29:34] well
[00:29:34] they
[00:29:36] were
[00:29:36] kind
[00:29:37] of
[00:29:37] doing
[00:29:38] so
[00:29:38] over
[00:29:38] the
[00:29:38] past
[00:29:38] few
[00:29:39] years
[00:29:39] granted
[00:29:41] the
[00:29:41] occasional
[00:29:41] rocket
[00:29:42] skirmish
[00:29:43] fear
[00:29:45] I
[00:29:46] think
[00:29:47] and
[00:29:47] this
[00:29:49] comes
[00:29:49] back to
[00:29:49] something
[00:29:49] I was
[00:29:50] saying
[00:29:50] earlier
[00:29:50] it's
[00:29:51] finding
[00:29:52] ways
[00:29:52] of
[00:29:52] demonstrating
[00:29:53] that
[00:29:53] people
[00:29:53] have
[00:29:54] the
[00:29:54] need
[00:29:54] to
[00:29:55] live
[00:29:55] with
[00:29:55] one
[00:29:55] another
[00:29:56] for
[00:29:57] their
[00:29:57] own
[00:29:57] pragmatic
[00:29:58] purposes
[00:29:58] and
[00:29:59] Lebanon
[00:29:59] and
[00:29:59] Israel
[00:29:59] have
[00:30:00] got
[00:30:00] a
[00:30:00] gas
[00:30:00] field
[00:30:00] that
[00:30:01] they're
[00:30:01] sharing
[00:30:01] and
[00:30:01] there
[00:30:02] are
[00:30:03] questions
[00:30:03] about
[00:30:04] the
[00:30:05] way
[00:30:06] in which
[00:30:06] that's
[00:30:06] going
[00:30:06] to
[00:30:06] operate
[00:30:07] but
[00:30:07] I
[00:30:08] wonder
[00:30:08] again
[00:30:08] if
[00:30:09] there
[00:30:09] are
[00:30:09] missed
[00:30:09] opportunities
[00:30:10] here
[00:30:10] of
[00:30:11] bringing
[00:30:12] people
[00:30:12] together
[00:30:13] in
[00:30:14] the
[00:30:14] spirit
[00:30:15] of
[00:30:15] cultivating
[00:30:16] something
[00:30:17] bigger
[00:30:17] than
[00:30:18] either
[00:30:18] constituent
[00:30:19] part
[00:30:19] so
[00:30:20] bringing
[00:30:21] people
[00:30:21] together
[00:30:22] for the
[00:30:22] sake
[00:30:22] of
[00:30:22] a
[00:30:22] bigger
[00:30:23] whole
[00:30:23] and
[00:30:23] that
[00:30:23] bigger
[00:30:23] whole
[00:30:24] would
[00:30:24] be
[00:30:24] allowing
[00:30:25] people
[00:30:25] in
[00:30:26] the
[00:30:27] eastern
[00:30:27] Mediterranean
[00:30:28] region
[00:30:28] in the
[00:30:29] Middle East
[00:30:29] in the
[00:30:29] Levant
[00:30:30] to thrive
[00:30:31] together
[00:30:31] by virtue
[00:30:32] of what
[00:30:32] is there
[00:30:33] and instead
[00:30:33] what we're
[00:30:34] seeing is
[00:30:34] it's a
[00:30:35] competition
[00:30:35] for survival
[00:30:37] or supremacy
[00:30:38] rather than
[00:30:39] that collection
[00:30:40] because
[00:30:41] the answer
[00:30:43] to Hezbollah
[00:30:43] as far as
[00:30:44] Israel is
[00:30:45] concerned
[00:30:45] is its
[00:30:46] complete
[00:30:46] destruction
[00:30:46] isn't it
[00:30:47] nothing less
[00:30:48] as the
[00:30:49] West
[00:30:49] has found
[00:30:50] repeatedly
[00:30:52] be it in
[00:30:53] Northern
[00:30:53] Ireland
[00:30:53] with the
[00:30:54] IRA
[00:30:54] be it
[00:30:55] in
[00:30:55] Iraq
[00:30:56] in
[00:30:56] Afghanistan
[00:30:56] you
[00:30:58] can't
[00:30:58] defeat
[00:30:59] ideology
[00:31:00] you
[00:31:00] cannot
[00:31:00] militarily
[00:31:02] destroy
[00:31:03] an
[00:31:03] ideology
[00:31:04] and
[00:31:05] that's
[00:31:06] what
[00:31:06] Israel
[00:31:07] is going
[00:31:07] to find
[00:31:07] it's found
[00:31:08] with the
[00:31:09] PLO
[00:31:09] it's
[00:31:10] increasingly
[00:31:11] finding it
[00:31:12] with Hamas
[00:31:12] it will
[00:31:13] find the
[00:31:13] same
[00:31:14] thing
[00:31:14] with
[00:31:14] Hezbollah
[00:31:14] that you
[00:31:15] cannot
[00:31:15] bomb
[00:31:16] to
[00:31:16] destruction
[00:31:17] an
[00:31:17] idea
[00:31:17] and
[00:31:18] instead
[00:31:19] what
[00:31:19] happens
[00:31:20] is
[00:31:20] you
[00:31:21] destroy
[00:31:21] particular
[00:31:23] individuals
[00:31:24] who are
[00:31:24] in
[00:31:26] leadership
[00:31:26] positions
[00:31:26] and they
[00:31:27] will be
[00:31:27] replaced
[00:31:28] by people
[00:31:28] who are
[00:31:29] more
[00:31:29] and more
[00:31:30] radical
[00:31:30] we
[00:31:31] saw
[00:31:31] that
[00:31:31] when
[00:31:31] al-Qaeda
[00:31:32] evolved
[00:31:32] into
[00:31:33] Daesh
[00:31:33] and
[00:31:34] Daesh
[00:31:34] was
[00:31:35] a
[00:31:36] different
[00:31:36] beast
[00:31:36] to
[00:31:37] al-Qaeda
[00:31:37] incredibly
[00:31:38] brutal
[00:31:39] devastating
[00:31:40] to
[00:31:41] anyone
[00:31:42] that
[00:31:42] disagreed
[00:31:43] with it
[00:31:43] if you
[00:31:44] went
[00:31:44] if you
[00:31:45] went
[00:31:45] radical
[00:31:45] in
[00:31:45] Gaza
[00:31:46] you
[00:31:46] would
[00:31:46] be
[00:31:46] now
[00:31:46] wouldn't
[00:31:47] you
[00:31:47] after
[00:31:47] you've
[00:31:48] seen
[00:31:48] your
[00:31:48] relatives
[00:31:48] die
[00:31:49] your
[00:31:49] home
[00:31:49] destroyed
[00:31:50] and
[00:31:51] just
[00:31:51] no
[00:31:52] hope
[00:31:52] of
[00:31:52] a future
[00:31:53] you'd
[00:31:53] become
[00:31:54] more
[00:31:55] radical
[00:31:55] as a
[00:31:55] result
[00:31:55] of
[00:31:56] that
[00:31:56] because
[00:31:56] of
[00:31:57] revenge
[00:31:58] is
[00:31:58] the
[00:31:58] word
[00:31:59] isn't
[00:31:59] it
[00:31:59] and
[00:31:59] it's
[00:31:59] strange
[00:32:00] that
[00:32:00] Israel
[00:32:00] and
[00:32:00] the
[00:32:01] Israeli
[00:32:01] military
[00:32:01] the
[00:32:02] IDF
[00:32:02] let alone
[00:32:03] they
[00:32:03] have
[00:32:04] lots
[00:32:04] of
[00:32:04] experience
[00:32:05] in
[00:32:05] this
[00:32:05] and
[00:32:05] some
[00:32:05] practicality
[00:32:06] they
[00:32:06] don't
[00:32:07] see
[00:32:07] this
[00:32:07] you're
[00:32:08] building
[00:32:08] up
[00:32:08] the
[00:32:08] suicide
[00:32:09] bombers
[00:32:09] of
[00:32:09] the
[00:32:09] future
[00:32:10] yeah
[00:32:10] and
[00:32:11] it's
[00:32:12] a
[00:32:12] it's
[00:32:13] a
[00:32:29] key
[00:32:29] local
[00:32:30] leaders
[00:32:30] who
[00:32:31] were
[00:32:31] starting
[00:32:31] to
[00:32:32] espouse
[00:32:32] extremist
[00:32:33] and
[00:32:33] radical
[00:32:33] views
[00:32:34] but
[00:32:34] what
[00:32:34] that
[00:32:35] does
[00:32:35] anyone
[00:32:36] who
[00:32:36] has
[00:32:36] mowed
[00:32:36] a lawn
[00:32:37] knows
[00:32:38] it
[00:32:38] grows
[00:32:39] back
[00:32:41] often
[00:32:41] worse
[00:32:42] than
[00:32:42] it
[00:32:42] was
[00:32:43] before
[00:32:44] and
[00:32:44] when
[00:32:44] you've
[00:32:45] got
[00:32:45] conditions
[00:32:45] that
[00:32:46] we're
[00:32:46] seeing
[00:32:46] in
[00:32:47] Gaza
[00:32:47] when
[00:32:47] you've
[00:32:47] got
[00:32:48] conditions
[00:32:48] that
[00:32:48] you're
[00:32:48] seeing
[00:32:49] in
[00:32:49] South
[00:32:49] Lebanon
[00:32:49] it's
[00:32:50] going
[00:32:50] to
[00:32:50] people
[00:32:51] in
[00:32:51] a
[00:32:51] sense
[00:32:52] of
[00:32:52] as
[00:32:53] you
[00:32:53] say
[00:32:53] is
[00:32:54] a
[00:32:54] desire
[00:32:54] for
[00:32:54] revenge
[00:32:55] because
[00:32:55] the
[00:32:56] death
[00:32:59] destruction
[00:32:59] of
[00:33:00] the
[00:33:00] way
[00:33:00] of
[00:33:00] life
[00:33:00] is
[00:33:01] harrowing
[00:33:01] so
[00:33:01] we
[00:33:01] might
[00:33:01] have
[00:33:01] said
[00:33:02] six
[00:33:02] months
[00:33:02] ago
[00:33:02] or
[00:33:03] even
[00:33:03] three
[00:33:03] months
[00:33:03] ago
[00:33:04] replacing
[00:33:04] Netanyahu
[00:33:05] would be
[00:33:05] the answer
[00:33:06] wouldn't
[00:33:06] it
[00:33:06] you know
[00:33:07] by
[00:33:07] whatever
[00:33:07] means
[00:33:07] but
[00:33:08] the
[00:33:08] opinion
[00:33:08] polls
[00:33:09] now
[00:33:09] say
[00:33:10] 47%
[00:33:11] believe
[00:33:11] he is
[00:33:12] the best
[00:33:12] person
[00:33:12] to lead
[00:33:12] the
[00:33:13] government
[00:33:13] in
[00:33:13] Israel
[00:33:14] back in
[00:33:15] April
[00:33:15] it
[00:33:16] was
[00:33:16] 35%
[00:33:17] he's
[00:33:17] had
[00:33:17] this
[00:33:17] surge
[00:33:18] of
[00:33:19] popularity
[00:33:19] because
[00:33:20] of
[00:33:20] what
[00:33:21] he's
[00:33:21] been
[00:33:22] doing
[00:33:22] in
[00:33:23] taking
[00:33:23] on
[00:33:23] Hezbollah
[00:33:23] yeah
[00:33:24] exactly
[00:33:24] his
[00:33:25] popularity
[00:33:26] has
[00:33:26] surged
[00:33:27] in
[00:33:27] recent
[00:33:28] weeks
[00:33:28] but
[00:33:28] that
[00:33:29] still
[00:33:29] doesn't
[00:33:29] mean
[00:33:29] that
[00:33:30] he
[00:33:30] is
[00:33:30] the
[00:33:30] most
[00:33:31] well
[00:33:32] liked
[00:33:32] individual
[00:33:33] in
[00:33:33] Israel
[00:33:33] let's
[00:33:34] say
[00:33:34] there
[00:33:34] is
[00:33:34] still
[00:33:34] a
[00:33:34] very
[00:33:35] vocal
[00:33:35] opposition
[00:33:36] to
[00:33:37] him
[00:33:37] to
[00:33:37] what
[00:33:38] he's
[00:33:38] doing
[00:33:38] the
[00:33:40] hostages
[00:33:40] who
[00:33:41] remain
[00:33:41] in
[00:33:41] Gaza
[00:33:41] are
[00:33:42] incredibly
[00:33:43] critical
[00:33:44] of
[00:33:48] to
[00:33:49] get
[00:33:49] the
[00:33:49] hostages
[00:33:49] back
[00:33:50] and
[00:33:51] the
[00:33:51] rumors
[00:33:52] of
[00:33:52] various
[00:33:52] ceasefire
[00:33:53] deals
[00:33:53] have
[00:33:53] been
[00:33:54] abound
[00:33:54] for
[00:33:55] months
[00:33:55] now
[00:33:56] ceasefire
[00:33:56] deals
[00:33:57] in
[00:33:57] Gaza
[00:33:57] that
[00:33:57] were
[00:33:58] agreed
[00:33:58] by
[00:33:58] Hamas
[00:33:59] allegedly
[00:33:59] that
[00:34:00] were
[00:34:00] signed
[00:34:01] off
[00:34:01] by
[00:34:01] the
[00:34:01] US
[00:34:01] only
[00:34:02] for
[00:34:02] Israel
[00:34:02] to
[00:34:02] back
[00:34:03] out
[00:34:03] rumors
[00:34:04] of
[00:34:04] ceasefire
[00:34:04] deals
[00:34:05] in
[00:34:05] Lebanon
[00:34:06] recently
[00:34:07] there
[00:34:08] were
[00:34:08] rumors
[00:34:09] reported
[00:34:09] by
[00:34:10] CNN
[00:34:10] that
[00:34:10] Hassan
[00:34:11] Nasrallah
[00:34:11] had
[00:34:11] agreed
[00:34:12] a
[00:34:12] ceasefire
[00:34:13] deal
[00:34:13] with
[00:34:13] Israel
[00:34:14] for
[00:34:14] 21
[00:34:14] days
[00:34:15] and
[00:34:15] then
[00:34:15] two
[00:34:16] days
[00:34:16] later
[00:34:16] he
[00:34:16] was
[00:34:16] killed
[00:34:17] so
[00:34:17] it's
[00:34:19] starting
[00:34:19] to
[00:34:19] really
[00:34:20] look
[00:34:21] like
[00:34:22] Netanyahu
[00:34:22] is the
[00:34:23] one
[00:34:23] who
[00:34:23] was
[00:34:23] driving
[00:34:24] this
[00:34:24] despite
[00:34:26] others
[00:34:26] seemingly
[00:34:27] being
[00:34:28] ready
[00:34:29] to
[00:34:29] stop
[00:34:30] and
[00:34:30] being
[00:34:30] ready
[00:34:31] to
[00:34:31] press
[00:34:32] pause
[00:34:33] at
[00:34:33] least
[00:34:33] to
[00:34:33] get
[00:34:34] some
[00:34:34] humanitarian
[00:34:35] aid
[00:34:35] in
[00:34:35] and
[00:34:36] to
[00:34:36] improve
[00:34:36] the
[00:34:36] situation
[00:34:37] of
[00:34:37] the
[00:34:37] people
[00:34:37] on
[00:34:38] the
[00:34:38] ground
[00:34:38] which
[00:34:38] is
[00:34:38] Simon
[00:34:39] we've
[00:34:40] got to
[00:34:40] draw
[00:34:40] this
[00:34:40] to a
[00:34:41] close
[00:34:41] I'm
[00:34:41] afraid
[00:34:42] I
[00:34:42] mean
[00:34:42] this
[00:34:44] is
[00:34:45] an
[00:34:45] awful
[00:34:45] question
[00:34:45] but
[00:34:45] if
[00:34:46] we
[00:34:46] are
[00:34:46] talking
[00:34:46] a
[00:34:46] year
[00:34:47] from
[00:34:47] now
[00:34:47] how
[00:34:48] do
[00:34:48] you
[00:34:48] think
[00:34:49] the
[00:34:49] region
[00:34:49] will
[00:34:49] have
[00:34:49] changed
[00:34:50] well
[00:34:52] somewhere
[00:34:52] deep
[00:34:53] deep
[00:34:53] down
[00:34:54] inside
[00:34:54] of
[00:34:54] me
[00:34:55] there's
[00:34:55] some
[00:34:55] optimism
[00:34:56] there's
[00:34:57] some
[00:34:57] hope
[00:34:58] and
[00:34:58] I
[00:34:59] say
[00:34:59] that
[00:35:00] having
[00:35:00] spoken
[00:35:00] to
[00:35:01] Saudi
[00:35:01] and
[00:35:02] Iranian
[00:35:02] friends
[00:35:02] recently
[00:35:04] who
[00:35:05] in
[00:35:06] the
[00:35:06] past
[00:35:06] decade
[00:35:07] were
[00:35:07] fearful
[00:35:08] of a
[00:35:08] war
[00:35:08] with
[00:35:08] each
[00:35:09] other
[00:35:10] that
[00:35:10] war
[00:35:10] never
[00:35:11] came
[00:35:11] to
[00:35:11] pass
[00:35:11] and
[00:35:11] instead
[00:35:12] the
[00:35:12] two
[00:35:13] seem
[00:35:13] to
[00:35:13] be
[00:35:13] on
[00:35:14] the
[00:35:14] path
[00:35:15] towards
[00:35:17] normalization
[00:35:17] and
[00:35:18] reintegration
[00:35:19] and if
[00:35:19] that's
[00:35:19] possible
[00:35:20] then other
[00:35:20] things are
[00:35:21] possible
[00:35:21] and I
[00:35:22] speak to
[00:35:22] Israeli
[00:35:23] friends
[00:35:23] who are
[00:35:24] critical
[00:35:25] of
[00:35:26] Netanyahu
[00:35:27] and everything
[00:35:28] that's been
[00:35:29] happening
[00:35:29] and continue
[00:35:30] to be
[00:35:31] working
[00:35:31] towards a
[00:35:32] two-state
[00:35:32] solution
[00:35:32] and working
[00:35:33] towards
[00:35:33] peace
[00:35:34] and
[00:35:35] and
[00:35:35] some
[00:35:35] Palestinians
[00:35:36] who
[00:35:37] are
[00:35:37] working
[00:35:38] tirelessly
[00:35:39] towards
[00:35:40] a
[00:35:40] peace
[00:35:40] there
[00:35:41] are
[00:35:41] people
[00:35:41] doing
[00:35:42] wonderful
[00:35:42] things
[00:35:43] and
[00:35:43] the
[00:35:43] optimism
[00:35:44] that I
[00:35:45] have
[00:35:45] that little
[00:35:46] glimmer
[00:35:46] of optimism
[00:35:47] says that
[00:35:48] people can
[00:35:49] do wonderful
[00:35:49] things
[00:35:50] and my
[00:35:50] hope is
[00:35:51] that
[00:35:51] there will
[00:35:52] be some
[00:35:52] creative
[00:35:53] solutions
[00:35:54] to this
[00:35:54] but
[00:35:55] the
[00:35:56] creative
[00:35:56] solutions
[00:35:56] are not
[00:35:57] easy
[00:35:57] to do
[00:35:58] they're
[00:35:58] going to
[00:35:58] take
[00:35:58] a brave
[00:36:00] leader
[00:36:01] probably
[00:36:01] from the
[00:36:02] region
[00:36:03] to step
[00:36:04] up and
[00:36:04] say we
[00:36:05] need to
[00:36:05] do
[00:36:05] something
[00:36:05] and we
[00:36:06] need to
[00:36:06] do it
[00:36:06] creatively
[00:36:07] and we
[00:36:08] need to
[00:36:08] do it
[00:36:08] now
[00:36:09] because
[00:36:09] but who
[00:36:10] would be
[00:36:10] doing that
[00:36:11] some type
[00:36:12] of Yitzhak
[00:36:13] Rabin
[00:36:13] figure
[00:36:13] yeah
[00:36:14] Rabin
[00:36:14] would be
[00:36:15] the one
[00:36:15] wouldn't
[00:36:15] he
[00:36:15] yeah
[00:36:16] and look
[00:36:16] what
[00:36:17] happened
[00:36:17] to him
[00:36:17] but we
[00:36:18] need a
[00:36:19] mediator
[00:36:19] from
[00:36:20] outside
[00:36:20] a non-Israeli
[00:36:22] non-Palestinian
[00:36:23] non-Israeli
[00:36:23] but where is
[00:36:24] that going to
[00:36:24] come from
[00:36:25] well
[00:36:25] who is
[00:36:26] the neutral
[00:36:26] player here
[00:36:27] the Omanis
[00:36:28] have previously
[00:36:29] played a
[00:36:30] diplomatic role
[00:36:31] but Sultan
[00:36:32] Qabo
[00:36:32] sadly died
[00:36:33] and so
[00:36:35] the new
[00:36:36] Sultan
[00:36:36] doesn't
[00:36:37] quite have
[00:36:37] the same
[00:36:38] level of
[00:36:38] influence
[00:36:40] I wonder
[00:36:40] if Saudi
[00:36:41] Arabia has
[00:36:42] got something
[00:36:43] to say
[00:36:43] we know
[00:36:44] that Crown
[00:36:44] Prince
[00:36:44] Mohammed
[00:36:45] bin Salman
[00:36:45] has set
[00:36:47] his own
[00:36:47] reputation
[00:36:48] on the
[00:36:49] development
[00:36:49] of Vision
[00:36:50] 2030
[00:36:51] this idea
[00:36:52] of transforming
[00:36:53] the kingdom
[00:36:53] huge spending
[00:36:55] neon
[00:36:55] the line
[00:36:56] dramatic
[00:36:57] spending
[00:36:57] internationally
[00:36:58] bringing all
[00:36:59] these huge
[00:37:00] high profile
[00:37:01] sporting
[00:37:02] and music
[00:37:02] events
[00:37:03] to the
[00:37:03] kingdom
[00:37:03] that isn't
[00:37:05] going to be
[00:37:05] possible to
[00:37:06] continue
[00:37:06] he will not
[00:37:07] realise his
[00:37:08] dream
[00:37:08] if war
[00:37:10] continues
[00:37:10] and if
[00:37:11] war continues
[00:37:12] then
[00:37:13] his own
[00:37:14] reputation
[00:37:14] is going
[00:37:15] to take
[00:37:15] a hit
[00:37:15] so I'm
[00:37:16] wondering
[00:37:16] if maybe
[00:37:16] the Saudis
[00:37:17] are the
[00:37:17] ones
[00:37:17] that are
[00:37:18] going to
[00:37:18] have to
[00:37:18] step up
[00:37:18] and say
[00:37:19] okay
[00:37:20] we can
[00:37:20] maybe
[00:37:21] talk to
[00:37:22] the Iranians
[00:37:23] get them
[00:37:23] to the table
[00:37:23] get them
[00:37:24] to put
[00:37:24] pressure on
[00:37:25] all these
[00:37:25] other
[00:37:25] allies
[00:37:26] of theirs
[00:37:26] and I'm
[00:37:27] i'm using
[00:37:28] allies
[00:37:28] rather than
[00:37:28] proxies
[00:37:29] deliberately
[00:37:30] put pressure
[00:37:31] on all
[00:37:32] of them
[00:37:32] to say
[00:37:33] we will
[00:37:34] agree to
[00:37:34] these terms
[00:37:35] and this
[00:37:35] is what's
[00:37:36] going to
[00:37:36] happen
[00:37:36] in return
[00:37:37] you get
[00:37:38] the nuclear
[00:37:39] deal
[00:37:39] and economic
[00:37:40] reintegration
[00:37:41] and to the
[00:37:42] Israelis
[00:37:42] you say
[00:37:42] okay
[00:37:43] fine
[00:37:43] you give
[00:37:44] us
[00:37:44] the two
[00:37:44] state
[00:37:45] solution
[00:37:45] on these
[00:37:46] terms
[00:37:47] for the
[00:37:47] Palestinians
[00:37:49] something
[00:37:49] that is
[00:37:50] irreversible
[00:37:52] and we normalise.
[00:37:53] But all of this has to be resolved
[00:37:56] through a Palestinian state.
[00:37:57] Otherwise, it's not going to be resolved.
[00:37:59] There's one man who won't agree with any of that
[00:38:00] and we know who it is, unfortunately.
[00:38:02] Well, several actually, I think.
[00:38:05] Simon, thank you for wading through all that
[00:38:07] and making some sense out of what is an incredibly complex
[00:38:11] and difficult situation.
[00:38:12] But thank you for that.
[00:38:13] Thanks, Simon.
[00:38:13] My pleasure.
[00:38:13] Thank you for having me.
[00:38:14] All right.
[00:38:15] Next week, another war.
[00:38:16] It's the war against our own bodies
[00:38:19] because a lot of people,
[00:38:20] obviously not very happy with the body they've got.
[00:38:22] Look, you and I don't have the most fantastic bodies.
[00:38:26] No.
[00:38:27] We haven't actually had much in the way of cosmetic surgery, though, have we?
[00:38:29] No, we haven't.
[00:38:30] Maybe it could look better.
[00:38:31] But, I mean, I might be putting words in your mouth,
[00:38:33] but I'm quite happy with the way I look, really.
[00:38:35] You know, I mean, I accept the fact, you know,
[00:38:37] for a 60-year-old, I think I'm looking okay.
[00:38:39] I'm more concerned about actually how long I live
[00:38:41] and how healthy I am rather than the way I look.
[00:38:44] Your modelling career has really petered out, hasn't it?
[00:38:47] I've given that away.
[00:38:47] Yeah, given that away now.
[00:38:48] But, I mean, you know, also I've got a very beautiful wife,
[00:38:51] so perhaps I care more about the way she looks.
[00:38:53] Because I can look at her, she has to look at me.
[00:38:55] So maybe I'm being a bit selfish.
[00:38:57] But this whole thing...
[00:38:58] But all of this, you know, there's a serious central issue here,
[00:39:00] which is that many people aren't happy
[00:39:02] and are willing to pay loads of money
[00:39:04] to get, well, things adjusted in ways that can be quite dangerous.
[00:39:08] Yeah, so raises lots of questions about the way these organisations are run,
[00:39:13] whether we've got the right checks and balances in place
[00:39:15] to make sure that qualified people are performing this surgery.
[00:39:19] But there's a deeper question as well, isn't there?
[00:39:21] Why are people doing it?
[00:39:23] Why are people so insecure that they feel,
[00:39:26] at a younger age in particular,
[00:39:28] that they have to change the way they look
[00:39:30] rather than just accepting what they've been given,
[00:39:32] which very often looks a lot better
[00:39:35] than it looks when they're finished through all of this surgery?
[00:39:38] Well, this is the problem, is how you perceive yourself, isn't it?
[00:39:40] Self-image is such a dramatically difficult thing to work with.
[00:39:44] And, of course, social media, and we blame it for a lot of things,
[00:39:46] but it is a lot to do with why people aren't satisfied
[00:39:49] with how they appear to the rest of the world.
[00:39:51] And as you say, it's a huge economic industry as well,
[00:39:54] and a lot of that's pushing it as well.
[00:39:56] And the safety issues.
[00:39:57] Yeah, all of that.
[00:39:58] And you would look, if you don't mind me saying,
[00:40:00] ridiculous with a massive pair of lips.
[00:40:02] The college of lips.
[00:40:03] Yeah, I'm afraid so.
[00:40:04] So I should cancel the arm?
[00:40:05] Yeah, cancel the arm, Roger.
[00:40:06] It's just not going to work for you.
[00:40:07] Anyway, we're going to look at all of that next week on The Why Curve.
[00:40:10] Join us for that.
[00:40:11] Thanks for joining us today.
[00:40:12] We'll see you next week.
[00:40:13] The Why Curve.