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[00:00:00] The Why Curve, Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing
[00:00:03] Are the Tories looking into an electoral abyss?
[00:00:07] The local elections have confirmed the polling.
[00:00:09] The political scenery has changed.
[00:00:11] Labour are preparing for government.
[00:00:13] But is it all a bit more nuanced than that?
[00:00:16] Labour was hampered by Gaza.
[00:00:18] The SNP have had a leadership crisis.
[00:00:20] Reform poll big but not enough to do more than rattle the Tory vote.
[00:00:25] And the Lib Dems haven't gained as much from all this as they'd hoped.
[00:00:29] So what is the new political landscape of the UK as we head towards a general election?
[00:00:33] The Why Curve
[00:00:36] As we head towards a general election sometime.
[00:00:39] Well no, we know it's when it's got to be but.
[00:00:41] Well yeah, by early next year.
[00:00:42] Yeah, but the likelihood it's going to be November, that's what most people are suggesting.
[00:00:46] Do you see that? I don't know how old this clip was.
[00:00:47] I saw it really soon.
[00:00:48] Like I think it's since the polls last week saying being interviewed by
[00:00:54] Beth Eirik beyond Sky and he was there saying,
[00:00:57] you know, people don't want an election.
[00:00:58] What people want is a government that delivers results.
[00:01:03] Yeah well okay and what's that got to do with you precisely?
[00:01:07] She was there going you're running scared aren't you?
[00:01:11] Of course he is.
[00:01:11] Well he was talking about a hung parliament but I mean you'd have to really read the polls
[00:01:15] in a very strange way to see that as a likely outcome.
[00:01:18] No I think you know...
[00:01:20] That's a tactic isn't it?
[00:01:21] It's like if you say well it's going to be a hung parliament
[00:01:23] then they're hoping that some people will go all well in that case.
[00:01:25] We were thinking we'd do a protest vote against Labour
[00:01:28] but it's the trick as old as the hills isn't it?
[00:01:29] It looks like we're not going to win but we have a chance.
[00:01:34] So don't waste your vote on Labour, vote for us
[00:01:36] because we are the safe managers of the economy.
[00:01:38] I just don't think people think that way about voting at all.
[00:01:41] I think people in the vast majority of people probably
[00:01:42] vote the same way they would have and always will.
[00:01:45] There will be some swinging across in different ways.
[00:01:47] Well more so this time than probably because there's so much going wrong.
[00:01:50] Yeah yeah yeah that's true.
[00:01:52] Or other things just not voting at all which I think is more likely.
[00:01:55] I mean that was certainly no-clot elections very few people vote anyway.
[00:01:58] Yes so do we know how they's compared or is that a question for our guest today?
[00:02:01] Well in terms of...
[00:02:02] Whether the local elections this time was at a poor turnout
[00:02:04] compared to previous local elections.
[00:02:05] I think it was pretty normal I think it's about 30% overall that kind of thing
[00:02:09] slightly more in one of the mayoral elections.
[00:02:11] Maybe this is Rishi's approach he thinks if he can just
[00:02:13] get us all completely disenfranchised with the political process
[00:02:16] we will just go whatever it's any politics.
[00:02:19] They had an election we didn't notice though, we didn't say no, sorry.
[00:02:22] Oh and maybe that's his technique.
[00:02:24] It's possible.
[00:02:25] I mean basically what you've got is a situation where the Tories know
[00:02:28] what's coming down the road, what's their best option
[00:02:31] will to make it slightly less bad than it obviously is going to be.
[00:02:34] And that's well you know there's not a lot in that.
[00:02:37] The enthusiasm is not going to be there.
[00:02:39] So what are they doing and why are they doing it?
[00:02:41] Yeah.
[00:02:42] Well let's talk to someone who does know about all this.
[00:02:44] Well he doesn't know the answers.
[00:02:46] He can guide us in the right direction maybe he does.
[00:02:49] Yes yes anyway it's Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London
[00:02:53] who joins us now.
[00:02:54] So Tim we were saying which thing just before we started talking to you about
[00:02:57] whether you know the local turnout, whether that was normal
[00:03:00] or are we getting a bit more disenfranchised with politics
[00:03:02] and was this a lower turnout than normal
[00:03:04] or are people so keen to see the back of Rishi
[00:03:07] that there's been a bigger turnout?
[00:03:08] What how did this time compare with previous local elections?
[00:03:11] No I mean it's basically par for the course.
[00:03:13] I mean to use the nerdy political science language
[00:03:17] these elections are second order elections as we call them
[00:03:21] and to be honest turnout in the UK in those elections
[00:03:24] has always been quite low.
[00:03:25] It's true in European Parliament elections remember those
[00:03:27] but it's always been true in local elections
[00:03:29] and this election cycle wasn't really any different.
[00:03:32] You know you rarely get more than a third of people out for a local election.
[00:03:37] So doesn't that make it difficult to sort of extract any conclusions from it?
[00:03:40] Well that is why you have some serious number crunches
[00:03:45] working for both Sky and for the BBC
[00:03:49] trying to produce an equivalent share of the vote
[00:03:53] from a set of elections which of course doesn't include the whole of the country
[00:03:57] and has some kind of quite weird local things going on.
[00:04:02] You may have seen and listeners may have seen
[00:04:06] that the share of the vote given to the Labour Party
[00:04:10] was actually a lot lower from their calculations
[00:04:14] than we're seeing in opinion polls at the moment.
[00:04:16] So Labour are on about 35, 34 in their calculations.
[00:04:22] The Conservatives are on about 25.
[00:04:24] Now the Conservatives on 25 is round about where they are in the opinion polls
[00:04:29] but Labour in the opinion polls are normally cresting 43-44%.
[00:04:34] So even then I think we have to take that kind of national equivalent share
[00:04:40] that the number of crunches have come up with a pinch of salt.
[00:04:43] It's certainly not the hung parliament that turns.
[00:04:46] This is what we're just hanging on about, isn't it?
[00:04:48] We've got a hung parliament therefore vote for us
[00:04:51] because at least you'll be a solid government
[00:04:54] and we can carry on with the job.
[00:04:56] There's so many problems with that
[00:04:58] and I'd like to if I can refer people to her
[00:05:01] and really brilliant blog actually done by Peter Kelmer
[00:05:05] who used to run Ugov, former journalist as well
[00:05:08] and he gives five reasons why Rishi Sunak is wrong
[00:05:12] about last week's election.
[00:05:14] The blog is called the Politics Counter if anyone wants to go see it
[00:05:17] but essentially what Peter argues or points out anyway
[00:05:21] is that that might be true on what we call a uniform national swing
[00:05:25] so if the swing were to be the same right across the country
[00:05:29] then maybe that's the case but the fact is the swing won't be
[00:05:32] like that right across the country.
[00:05:34] It will be quite different and also of course
[00:05:37] it didn't take into account what's going on in Scotland which is important
[00:05:41] and the other thing to point out is actually if you drill down into the results
[00:05:45] you will see that Labour did better in places where it needs to flip constituencies
[00:05:52] from the Conservatives and the Conservatives did worse in those constituencies
[00:05:56] than it really needs to hold on to
[00:05:58] and the same is actually true for the Lib Dems as well
[00:06:02] and there's a degree to which the results in London
[00:06:05] actually suggest quite a lot of tactical voting going on
[00:06:08] in London.
[00:06:10] There were people who had a choice both for the mayor
[00:06:13] and for the London Assembly and you can see
[00:06:16] when you look at the way that they voted
[00:06:19] there were many Lib Dems who voted for Sidiccarn
[00:06:22] in the mayoral elections but actually voted for Lib Dem
[00:06:26] in the London Assembly elections.
[00:06:28] So well they have a chance of actually getting people in.
[00:06:31] Exactly, exactly.
[00:06:32] So that suggests campaigning then if they're doing well where they needed to do well
[00:06:35] and the fact that the political voting was working to their benefit
[00:06:38] then obviously they were pamphleting, they were out on the streets
[00:06:40] they were door knocking and that was working for them.
[00:06:43] Yeah I mean I think it does suggest a degree of local activity paying off for them
[00:06:46] but whatever it suggests very worrying for the Conservative Party
[00:06:50] that we're seeing what we saw back in 1997
[00:06:53] which is the willingness on the part of people who would normally vote
[00:06:57] for the Lib Dems to vote for Labour
[00:06:59] where they can get rid of a Conservative MP
[00:07:02] in the opposite direction from Labour Party supporters
[00:07:06] and if that's the case we are talking real problems for the Tories.
[00:07:10] I remember in 1997 I actually swapped my vote with someone else
[00:07:14] in a different constituency on that very basis.
[00:07:16] Ah right, yes of course there will be some people
[00:07:20] sort of tech nerds who were very keen on these sites
[00:07:23] that actually now sort of link you up with someone
[00:07:26] you can do that with in a way that was more informal.
[00:07:30] Let's just stand back and look then to say Tim
[00:07:33] because as you say it's a distorting mirror to a large extent
[00:07:36] but if we look at the political landscape as we begin the summer
[00:07:39] before the general election possibly October, November who knows
[00:07:43] what has changed? I mean you mentioned 1997
[00:07:46] it isn't the same landscape as 1997 is it?
[00:07:48] No it's not but I think there are obvious commonalities
[00:07:53] the most obvious one being the fact that people are just fed up
[00:07:57] to the back teeth of a government that's been in power a long time
[00:08:00] and doesn't actually seem to have delivered
[00:08:03] and in some ways things are worse now for the Conservatives
[00:08:06] than they were back then because if you remember by 1997
[00:08:10] the economy had actually been recovering for about four years
[00:08:14] and you know it was going great guns.
[00:08:17] I mean the inheritance that Blair and Brown took on from Major
[00:08:21] and Clark was actually quite positive
[00:08:24] but now obviously we're seeing you know not only
[00:08:29] that people have fed up to the back teeth with a government
[00:08:32] that's been there too long but they are still suffering
[00:08:35] from the so-called cost of living crisis and of course
[00:08:37] there are a lot of people with mortgages who are finding
[00:08:40] that Liz Truss' experiment has cost them dear
[00:08:44] and in fact there's been some research recently
[00:08:46] that I was looking at which suggests that
[00:08:49] in constituencies where more people have mortgages
[00:08:53] rather than own outright Labour are doing much better
[00:08:57] than they are in constituencies where there are more
[00:09:00] if you like home owners who already have paid off their mortgage
[00:09:04] so I think we can't understate the extent to which
[00:09:08] Liz Truss' experiment has actually had a tangible impact
[00:09:12] on people not just the psychological impact
[00:09:14] although I wonder whether you know give it time
[00:09:16] whether we would have seen the same impact
[00:09:18] I mean you know there's no doubt interest rates
[00:09:20] would continue to arise whether...
[00:09:22] Yeah I think the problem is for the conservatives
[00:09:25] that you know however unfairly or fairly
[00:09:28] people associate that rise with Liz Truss
[00:09:31] and at the other point I was going to say
[00:09:33] and it's something that you know we are still
[00:09:36] in some ways ignoring partly because I think the conservatives
[00:09:39] have such a hold on the print media
[00:09:42] that people are really really worried about what's happening
[00:09:45] in the NHS as well
[00:09:48] you know the conservatives would like to keep the conversation
[00:09:50] on migration on small boats etc etc
[00:09:52] but you know if you talk to your friends and family
[00:09:55] as I'm sure you do and as I'm sure the listeners do
[00:09:58] you will hear tales of people
[00:10:00] having to queue up in the early morning to desperately
[00:10:02] try and get a GP appointment
[00:10:04] being on wasting lists for ages and ages
[00:10:06] and you know in as much as the NHS is
[00:10:09] you know what one conservatives once called
[00:10:11] the secular religion in the UK
[00:10:14] that actually has a very important
[00:10:16] electoral impact as well which we shouldn't forget
[00:10:19] so it's not just the economy's too but it's the health service
[00:10:22] And this is all just going to get worse isn't it over time
[00:10:24] I think Rishi Sienak has this hope that
[00:10:26] if he delays for as long as possible
[00:10:28] things will improve because
[00:10:30] A black swan event perhaps
[00:10:32] Because the plan is working we're told
[00:10:35] and he's doing the right thing in inverted commas
[00:10:38] and we are all going to appreciate that
[00:10:40] and I saw an interview with him recently saying
[00:10:43] people don't want an election I'm not really quite sure
[00:10:46] on any of this what plan are these on
[00:10:48] but it's not going to improve is it because
[00:10:50] even if interest rates come down
[00:10:52] mortgages are still going to be a lot more expensive
[00:10:54] than they were
[00:10:56] inflation might slow but prices are still higher
[00:10:58] people are still out of pocket
[00:11:00] no one is going to feel materially better off
[00:11:02] by the end of this year
[00:11:03] And even on his own tests they're not working
[00:11:05] I mean it's just feasible I suppose
[00:11:07] he might have some flights to Rwanda before
[00:11:09] November it's possible
[00:11:11] but if he leaves that
[00:11:14] there's so much political capital
[00:11:16] that's been spent on that
[00:11:18] if he gets flights going off to Rwanda
[00:11:20] and it makes not one jot of difference
[00:11:22] then he hasn't got a leg to stand on with that either
[00:11:24] so it doesn't look like he's playing very smart
[00:11:26] with any of this is he
[00:11:28] No I think this prompts the
[00:11:30] off-term criticism about Rishi Sienak
[00:11:32] but he's just not very good at politics
[00:11:34] he rather
[00:11:36] over confidently
[00:11:38] came up with these I think it was five pledges
[00:11:40] wasn't it? Hardly any of which are being met
[00:11:42] and the only one that is being met
[00:11:44] obviously is a return to growth
[00:11:46] we might see that
[00:11:48] inflation is down a bit
[00:11:50] inflation is down but of course that's not his fault
[00:11:52] but on stopping the boats
[00:11:54] that's clearly not going to happen
[00:11:56] as you say whatever happens with flights going off to Rwanda
[00:11:58] and I think stopping the boats is what matters to people
[00:12:00] not flights to Rwanda
[00:12:02] and on the health service
[00:12:04] he's not really managed to do
[00:12:06] anything about waiting times and waiting lists either
[00:12:08] so as you
[00:12:10] put it even on his own terms
[00:12:12] he's failed quite badly
[00:12:14] those pledges ended up being hostages to fortune
[00:12:16] So the electoral impact of that
[00:12:18] if we imagine the election October, November
[00:12:20] without something very
[00:12:22] dramatic changing in some form which we can't see
[00:12:24] are the Tories
[00:12:26] do you think heading for
[00:12:28] wipe out or perhaps
[00:12:30] for as bad a result as Labour had last time
[00:12:32] you know it was worse since
[00:12:34] 1932 or whatever it was
[00:12:36] Yeah worse since 1935
[00:12:38] well I mean I
[00:12:40] still skeptical about
[00:12:42] a really really huge
[00:12:44] Labour majority
[00:12:46] I mean partly because
[00:12:48] I guess
[00:12:50] 2019 was such a bad result
[00:12:52] they're coming back from a very bad situation
[00:12:54] it would be quite incredible I think
[00:12:56] for a party to turn round
[00:12:58] that bad defeat like that into
[00:13:00] a landslide win
[00:13:02] but you know having said that
[00:13:04] I mean stranger things do
[00:13:06] happen
[00:13:08] I mean I'm not going to put
[00:13:10] a number on it I'm always tempted to
[00:13:12] I'm not going to
[00:13:14] No no it's just us
[00:13:16] Yeah
[00:13:18] You know sometimes
[00:13:20] you go back to 1997
[00:13:22] it was what 179 majority
[00:13:24] and we're getting
[00:13:26] forecast by some
[00:13:28] very enthusiastic Labour people
[00:13:30] now that it could be even higher than that
[00:13:32] I mean I find that quite
[00:13:34] difficult to believe
[00:13:36] but equally I mean
[00:13:38] I do find it difficult to
[00:13:40] see how the Conservatives
[00:13:42] managed to turn this situation
[00:13:44] around I mean I was reading Stephen Bush
[00:13:46] in the FT today
[00:13:48] and he said you know the only solution to the Tories problem
[00:13:50] is basically time travel
[00:13:52] and Rishi Tsunak's not going to find a TARDIS
[00:13:54] in the bottom of the golden
[00:13:56] downings tree
[00:13:58] Well maybe that's why he's delaying
[00:14:00] maybe he's very waiting for it
[00:14:02] but the weakness that you're identifying
[00:14:04] that Tim is not so much the Tories
[00:14:06] haplessness almost
[00:14:08] it's Labour weakness potentially
[00:14:10] because I think that was something that seemed to me to be coming out of
[00:14:12] the local action results
[00:14:14] and we take on board that you know the limit to what you can say
[00:14:16] but for example the Gaza issue
[00:14:18] now okay it's probably in certain parts of the country
[00:14:20] but it showed that
[00:14:22] there's a weakness perhaps to the Labour vote
[00:14:24] that might come into play in the general election
[00:14:26] Yeah I mean it's possible
[00:14:28] and I think it has spooked some people in the Labour party
[00:14:30] but having said that
[00:14:32] the alternative argument is
[00:14:34] well actually Labour could afford to lose an awful lot of votes
[00:14:36] to
[00:14:38] you know the people who are angry about Gaza
[00:14:40] and yet still win
[00:14:42] in those constituencies
[00:14:44] simply because they have such big
[00:14:46] majorities
[00:14:48] and I guess in terms of sort of something turning up
[00:14:50] you could say well if
[00:14:52] I mean it's big if obviously there is a
[00:14:54] ceasefire in Gaza
[00:14:56] and you know
[00:14:58] even if that ceasefire manages
[00:15:00] to be somehow made permanent
[00:15:02] rather than temporary
[00:15:04] then you know that is going to help an awful lot
[00:15:06] there are things that perhaps Labour
[00:15:08] and Kirsten Arma can do to
[00:15:10] you know reforge links with
[00:15:12] some in the Muslim community
[00:15:14] but of course it isn't just people who are angry about Gaza
[00:15:16] I mean you know
[00:15:18] there's an extent to which Labour also lost some people
[00:15:20] to the Greens
[00:15:22] and I think you know there is a
[00:15:24] degree of
[00:15:26] disappointment on the part of some
[00:15:28] left wing people with the way that
[00:15:30] Starma has taken
[00:15:32] the Labour party which you know could cost them
[00:15:34] some votes and that might
[00:15:36] actually mean that they have difficulty
[00:15:38] in preventing the Greens taking
[00:15:40] a second
[00:15:42] parliamentary seat in Bristol
[00:15:44] you know they've got one down in Brighton
[00:15:46] you know they might hold on to that
[00:15:48] and I think Bristol actually looks
[00:15:50] quite difficult for the Labour party
[00:15:52] so we shouldn't
[00:15:54] just say it's about Gaza
[00:15:56] I think it is in part
[00:15:58] you know
[00:16:00] due to the fact that some people think that
[00:16:02] Starma has taken the party in a kind of overly
[00:16:04] Blair rights direction
[00:16:06] and you know they're going to object to that
[00:16:08] So yeah and yet
[00:16:10] he has said well we're going to
[00:16:12] re-nationalise the railways
[00:16:14] I mean there's a
[00:16:16] strangely not made a bigger thing out of it
[00:16:18] because it seems like bleeding obvious
[00:16:20] because they're being re-nationalised by default anyway
[00:16:22] as these things all fall apart
[00:16:24] I mean if he was bold he'd be saying
[00:16:26] the water companies and you would have thought
[00:16:28] that would be a surefire winner
[00:16:30] and yeah he doesn't want to go there
[00:16:32] Well I mean I suppose he doesn't want to go there
[00:16:34] partly because you know people worry about
[00:16:36] the expense of a re-nationalisation
[00:16:38] when it comes to water I can understand that
[00:16:40] but I mean
[00:16:42] I think there is some worry at Labour circles
[00:16:44] about the extent to which this cautious
[00:16:46] approach you know it seems to be ruling
[00:16:48] out anything that a Labour Government
[00:16:50] can do to change things
[00:16:52] and to signal to people that actually
[00:16:54] you know electing a Labour Government
[00:16:56] will you know see a big improvement
[00:16:58] in their lives and actually see
[00:17:00] you know British politics
[00:17:02] and the British state alter quite
[00:17:04] fundamentally I mean
[00:17:06] whether you can go
[00:17:08] into an election not promising too much
[00:17:10] and then be more radical when you actually
[00:17:12] if and when
[00:17:14] you actually managed to win is a
[00:17:16] point
[00:17:18] It's the alternative to campaigning
[00:17:20] in poetry and governing in prose
[00:17:22] it's the other way about
[00:17:24] I wonder how radical it is though
[00:17:26] because I mean the idea and you're right
[00:17:28] the reason he doesn't want to do it is
[00:17:30] because of the massive investment that would be required
[00:17:32] in getting the infrastructure up to speed
[00:17:34] but in terms of
[00:17:36] it's not that radical
[00:17:38] even Tory voters I think to say well
[00:17:40] okay should we bring water back
[00:17:42] into public hands
[00:17:44] given that we are you know the only country
[00:17:46] in the world which has actually completely privatised
[00:17:48] water and sewage the only
[00:17:50] country you would have thought it would be on fairly safe ground
[00:17:52] You would but you know
[00:17:54] it's all part of not spooking
[00:17:56] you know the financial markets
[00:17:58] and I think actually in some ways
[00:18:00] although the Tories have been scarred
[00:18:02] electorally about what happened to Liz Truss
[00:18:04] I think Labour has been scarred too
[00:18:06] the fear is that you know
[00:18:08] the bond markets whoever
[00:18:10] you want to personify
[00:18:12] as the villain in this scenario
[00:18:14] can make you pay for doing anything too radical
[00:18:16] too quickly
[00:18:18] and I think in Rachel Reeves
[00:18:20] Labour have got an inherently
[00:18:22] cautious quite
[00:18:24] traditional fairly orthodox
[00:18:26] economists there who isn't going
[00:18:28] to want to kind of scare the horses
[00:18:30] in the belief that in the end
[00:18:32] actually economic stability
[00:18:34] to some extent is the key to growth
[00:18:36] whether she's right or not is another matter
[00:18:38] She's very orthodox
[00:18:40] and she could almost be in the Tory party
[00:18:42] The telegraph
[00:18:44] is that this week been saying that
[00:18:46] they think that the Tories should exaggerate
[00:18:48] how bad the economic picture is
[00:18:50] so that they would say you know choosing
[00:18:52] Labour is too risky
[00:18:54] this is what the term seems bizarre
[00:18:56] so having a project fear right now
[00:18:58] it's like it's too risky to a line of
[00:19:00] defences that they could destroy the economy
[00:19:02] because you've messed it up so much Arthur
[00:19:04] You're certainly giving me a look at the performance
[00:19:06] over their reign
[00:19:08] Another thing we've talked about Labour
[00:19:10] and its potential risks but one of the big boosts
[00:19:12] potentially Tim and that's something that's happened
[00:19:14] in the last week or so
[00:19:16] is what's been going on with the SNP
[00:19:18] because there's a lot of seats potentially in Scotland
[00:19:20] that have been SNP
[00:19:22] Is the sense of what's been going on
[00:19:24] the weakness of the SNP now could be
[00:19:26] the absolute trump card
[00:19:28] for Kirsten Armour to get that massive majority
[00:19:30] because they seem effectively
[00:19:32] electoral almost to have collapsed
[00:19:34] I think again what's happening
[00:19:36] north of the border to some extent
[00:19:38] is similar to what's going on south of the border
[00:19:41] in the sense you have got a government
[00:19:43] that's been there a very long time
[00:19:45] in fact longer obviously in Scotland
[00:19:47] than it's the case in the entire UK
[00:19:49] it hasn't necessarily been able to deliver on
[00:19:51] some of the bread and butter issues that people
[00:19:53] really care about and of course
[00:19:55] they have got their problems with the
[00:19:57] whole scandal involving
[00:19:59] the former chief executive treasurer
[00:20:01] they've got leadership difficulties
[00:20:03] Campavangate
[00:20:05] Campavangate
[00:20:07] and I think added
[00:20:09] together
[00:20:11] that means that the SNP is probably
[00:20:13] on course maybe to lose about half of the seats
[00:20:15] it has to
[00:20:17] Would they go to labour? Is that the direction
[00:20:19] they would go to?
[00:20:21] There might be a few cases where
[00:20:23] possibly the Lib Dems benefit
[00:20:25] but most of them will go to labour
[00:20:27] and labour have made a very big push
[00:20:29] to recover from
[00:20:31] the dire situation in which they face
[00:20:33] which to be honest
[00:20:35] was partly Labour's fault
[00:20:37] I think they did take Scotland and Scottish seats for granted
[00:20:39] for a very long time
[00:20:41] I don't think that's going to be the case now
[00:20:43] and indeed it probably won't be the case for a generation
[00:20:45] given what happened when they lost all those
[00:20:47] seats to the SNP
[00:20:49] How much difference
[00:20:51] 20-30 seats can make
[00:20:53] to labour
[00:20:55] in terms of whether it will be a
[00:20:57] huge landslide
[00:20:59] or whether it will just be a comfortable win
[00:21:01] They could see with a kiss though
[00:21:03] they could say we'll have another referendum
[00:21:05] vote for us in Scotland and we'll allow another referendum
[00:21:07] that would finish off the SNP
[00:21:09] Discautious look
[00:21:11] One of the interesting things
[00:21:13] about Scotland, I'm sure you've observed this before
[00:21:15] and probably some of the listeners have as well
[00:21:17] is that actually support for independence
[00:21:19] has not dropped that much
[00:21:21] You have a really interesting situation
[00:21:23] where the SNP is a political for independence
[00:21:25] the SNP seems to be
[00:21:27] out of favour big time
[00:21:29] but yet we still have
[00:21:31] 46-47% of people saying
[00:21:33] they'd like to see an independent Scotland
[00:21:35] so it's an interesting situation there
[00:21:37] and obviously it could be the case
[00:21:39] that were Labour to come into power
[00:21:41] and frustration were to grow
[00:21:43] in Scotland with the way the Labour
[00:21:45] were governing the UK as a whole
[00:21:47] we might see another push for independence
[00:21:49] we might see a revival of the SNP
[00:21:51] Talking about Gaza before
[00:21:53] I was thinking I wonder how many people
[00:21:55] who would normally vote Labour
[00:21:57] might just not vote if they've taken
[00:21:59] exception to the way that they've dealt
[00:22:01] with the Gaza issue and similarly
[00:22:03] I wonder how many people who would normally vote
[00:22:05] Tory but are not very happy with this mob
[00:22:07] just won't vote and whether we'll actually
[00:22:09] have quite a low turnout at the next election
[00:22:11] Yeah, I mean turnout
[00:22:13] in the main research suggests
[00:22:15] is actually driven by two things
[00:22:17] one are how close people think
[00:22:19] and certainly if Labour is still 20 points ahead
[00:22:21] in the opinion polls and run up
[00:22:23] to polling day itself
[00:22:25] I would expect that to impact pretty
[00:22:27] significantly
[00:22:29] on the turnout
[00:22:31] and the other thing is
[00:22:33] the extent to which they think
[00:22:35] changing the government will actually make
[00:22:37] a difference to their lives
[00:22:39] and to the country and again
[00:22:41] you've already talked about the lack of enthusiasm
[00:22:43] that there is out there for
[00:22:45] Labour we could see that depressed
[00:22:47] turnout as well so
[00:22:49] on both of those counts
[00:22:51] I guess one would expect it to be a fairly low turnout
[00:22:53] election, I mean that doesn't
[00:22:55] sort of delegitimize the election
[00:22:57] but you know it could
[00:22:59] be significant
[00:23:01] Is that then you know
[00:23:03] what's all that affecting with them about a protest vote
[00:23:05] potentially being there and perhaps the protest vote is not to vote
[00:23:07] almost but also
[00:23:09] one lot we haven't mentioned at all in this
[00:23:11] is the reform party
[00:23:13] which had a very interesting I mean
[00:23:15] almost coming
[00:23:17] second not quite and some people
[00:23:19] say well they didn't get actually as many as they thought they would
[00:23:21] but I mean the implication
[00:23:23] is certainly that that is where a lot of very
[00:23:25] disgruntled Tories may go
[00:23:27] if they want to vote not Tory
[00:23:29] Yeah and that obviously explains
[00:23:31] why there are so many people in the Conservative Party
[00:23:33] Svella Bram and being the most obvious example
[00:23:35] that you know are desperate
[00:23:37] for an even harder line on
[00:23:39] migration and on the culture wars
[00:23:41] in order to bring those people back
[00:23:43] to the performance of the local elections
[00:23:45] I mean they didn't stand many councillors
[00:23:47] so it's not easy to
[00:23:49] you know to talk
[00:23:51] about it in
[00:23:53] for sure fire terms
[00:23:55] but it does seem to be the case that
[00:23:57] where they did stand
[00:23:59] the Conservative vote went down more than it did
[00:24:01] in places that they didn't stand
[00:24:03] so that does seem to indicate that they are capable
[00:24:05] of taking votes from the Conservatives
[00:24:07] and they don't seem to be taking any votes
[00:24:09] from Labour or other parties
[00:24:11] that is quite significant.
[00:24:13] But how many people do they disenfranchise on the other side
[00:24:15] so moderate, Tory
[00:24:17] voters who will go well if you swing
[00:24:19] too far to the right we're not going to vote for you
[00:24:21] Yeah I mean that's always the trade-off right
[00:24:23] the Conservative Party
[00:24:25] faces I was also going to add the Blackpool South
[00:24:27] actually to be honest for all that they
[00:24:29] only finished 117 votes behind
[00:24:31] the Conservatives was probably pretty disappointing
[00:24:33] for reform to be honest I mean if
[00:24:35] you think about left behind
[00:24:37] places which might
[00:24:39] be as it were quite responsive
[00:24:41] to reforms appeal you know
[00:24:43] that voted Brexit big time
[00:24:45] back in 2016 you would have
[00:24:47] thought the Blackpool South was sort of an ideal
[00:24:49] reform UK territory
[00:24:51] and yet actually
[00:24:53] their share of the vote was only just
[00:24:55] above what they seem to be polling
[00:24:57] nation-wide. So you don't think they'll take any seats
[00:24:59] then I mean it's interesting they seem to say
[00:25:01] they're standing in all constituencies
[00:25:03] although some of their candidates appear to be dead
[00:25:05] which is not obviously ideal
[00:25:07] but I mean could they take a seat?
[00:25:09] I mean famous last word
[00:25:11] no unless Nigel Farage stands
[00:25:13] maybe if Farage decides
[00:25:15] that actually you know
[00:25:17] the opportunities
[00:25:19] for making a buck in the United States
[00:25:21] in the run-up to the presidential election
[00:25:23] aren't as attractive as standing in say
[00:25:25] Clackton you know it's
[00:25:27] possible
[00:25:29] but I rather
[00:25:31] Not that there's anything wrong with Clackton
[00:25:33] I love this list there
[00:25:35] one of my best friends is from Clackton
[00:25:37] there we are
[00:25:39] Is he really?
[00:25:41] Are you just saying
[00:25:43] actually thought the soaken but it's not very far
[00:25:45] away from Clackton so I'm going to say Clackton
[00:25:47] but
[00:25:49] I rather suspect that
[00:25:51] Nigel Farage is more
[00:25:53] tempted now by the US than
[00:25:55] he is by the UK
[00:25:57] and I can't honestly see him
[00:25:59] standing again if he doesn't think
[00:26:01] he can win and I do
[00:26:03] think Blackpool suggests that probably
[00:26:05] reform is not on for
[00:26:07] you know doing as well in the election
[00:26:09] as they would hope to
[00:26:11] but
[00:26:13] one thing Rishi Sunak is right on then because he keeps on saying
[00:26:15] well you know if you vote for reform
[00:26:17] then you are wasting your vote
[00:26:19] well I mean it's you know
[00:26:21] vote reform get labour I mean I think
[00:26:23] that is one of the you know the things
[00:26:25] that Sunak is saying that does actually make sense
[00:26:27] I mean I think the Conservatives are worried about
[00:26:29] that but on the other hand
[00:26:31] the Conservatives should be far more
[00:26:33] worried about losing votes to labour
[00:26:35] than losing votes to reform but they are
[00:26:37] absolutely obsessed with losing votes to reform
[00:26:39] and I think that tells you something about
[00:26:41] their minds
[00:26:43] well sure it says like Brexit all over again
[00:26:45] isn't it really we're going down a road which is being driven
[00:26:47] by an agenda which is trying to say factions
[00:26:49] in the Conservative Party
[00:26:51] yes I mean I think that's right I mean I think obviously
[00:26:53] the kind of you know the hard right in the Conservative Party
[00:26:55] loves to point to reform as a thread
[00:26:57] because it's a way of
[00:26:59] you know using that as leverage to try and get the kind of
[00:27:01] policies they want for the Conservatives
[00:27:03] what about the middle we haven't really mentioned
[00:27:05] the Lib Dems very much in all this
[00:27:07] and if we've got I mean looking
[00:27:09] across the country if you have the general election
[00:27:11] we know that in many parts of the south
[00:27:13] particularly there is no real labour
[00:27:15] structure in a lot of constituencies because they've never been
[00:27:17] potentially able
[00:27:19] to win it and the Lib Dems do have the structure
[00:27:21] are we going to see almost by default
[00:27:23] a considerable number of Lib Dem
[00:27:25] votes because they've been really off the agenda
[00:27:27] for a long time
[00:27:29] they have I mean I think you know we were talking
[00:27:31] earlier about sort of you know
[00:27:33] uniform swing and the Labour
[00:27:35] the Liberal Democrats aren't doing particularly well
[00:27:37] in the opinion polls but I think that's
[00:27:39] not what they're interested in right now
[00:27:41] I mean if they wanted to do well in the opinion polls
[00:27:43] the Lib Dems could
[00:27:45] start talking about rejoining the EU
[00:27:47] right but actually that wouldn't help
[00:27:49] them what they really want to do
[00:27:51] which is to win seats and you know
[00:27:53] they are putting an awful lot of resource
[00:27:55] into target seats
[00:27:57] they aren't targeting too widely
[00:27:59] you know I think they know where they're strongest
[00:28:01] and where their strongest is often
[00:28:03] where there isn't actually much labour opposition
[00:28:05] either
[00:28:07] and it's where they hope to take seats off
[00:28:09] the Conservatives so some parts of the south west
[00:28:11] to the west and the south of London
[00:28:13] you know they have got
[00:28:15] a serious chance of
[00:28:17] maybe winning sort of 20 30
[00:28:19] seats if they go on as they are
[00:28:21] I think despite the fact that
[00:28:23] as you say
[00:28:25] they don't appear to be doing particularly impressively
[00:28:27] in the opinion polls but they actually have done
[00:28:29] reasonably well in these local elections
[00:28:31] sort of under the radar the Lib Dems
[00:28:33] I think were better tested
[00:28:35] well they've got more councillors than the Tories did overall
[00:28:37] yeah yeah yeah and you know again
[00:28:39] like Labour they seem to be doing particularly well
[00:28:41] in seats that they need
[00:28:43] or places that they need to do well
[00:28:45] in order to win parliamentary seats
[00:28:47] so I wonder how much support we're going to see for
[00:28:49] the Conservative Party going out to this election
[00:28:51] the Daily Mail
[00:28:53] the Telegraph so I see an editorial
[00:28:55] in The Sun
[00:28:57] I love this saying significant well first of all they say
[00:28:59] last this is so the Sun
[00:29:01] last week's results were a protest
[00:29:03] kicking the ballots for the Tories
[00:29:05] yeah and
[00:29:07] what they want is significant tax cuts
[00:29:09] and a crackdown on immigration that's what's needed
[00:29:11] for Rishi Sunak to have any chance of success
[00:29:13] at the next election
[00:29:15] so even if he does those things has he got any chance
[00:29:17] at the next election at all what could
[00:29:19] he do that's going to win it for him
[00:29:21] well I think that is a load of ballots
[00:29:23] actually I mean the idea that
[00:29:25] you know doing something more
[00:29:27] on immigration and tax cuts
[00:29:29] is going to do it I think it's just
[00:29:31] fantasy politics to be honest I mean
[00:29:33] the Conservatives have already tried cutting national
[00:29:35] insurance a couple of times
[00:29:37] you know they're focusing on immigration all the time
[00:29:39] you know it's impossible
[00:29:41] to imagine what else they could do on immigration
[00:29:43] really to get anything to happen
[00:29:45] between now and the election and again
[00:29:47] I mean I think it is significant that of course
[00:29:49] you know there's no mention made once again
[00:29:51] and sorry to plug this point of the NHS
[00:29:53] you know I mean it is clear
[00:29:55] that you know the Rupert Murdoch
[00:29:57] and the people who run the Sun don't want to talk about that
[00:29:59] because it's not a great issue for the Conservatives
[00:30:01] but then that does suggest that perhaps they are
[00:30:03] still going to support the Conservatives
[00:30:05] going to the next election because they're doing
[00:30:07] things else. Do you think so? I mean it's
[00:30:09] there's all sorts of suggestions in the background
[00:30:11] that maybe you know the massive ship is beginning
[00:30:13] to turn in some areas because
[00:30:15] in the past in the year 1997 and of course famously
[00:30:17] some of the Tory press did swing behind Blair
[00:30:19] they did, they expressed it
[00:30:21] would that happen again? They expressed the Sun
[00:30:23] the Mail will never swing
[00:30:25] no no for the Labour Party
[00:30:27] the Telegraph will never do that
[00:30:29] I can't see the Express
[00:30:31] doing it this time around in fact they might recommend a vote
[00:30:33] for reform
[00:30:35] you know the Sun
[00:30:37] may be but they don't seem particularly
[00:30:39] enthused by Kiyos Dharma
[00:30:41] and Rachel Reeves and the fact is
[00:30:43] I mean you know what the Sun says
[00:30:45] it's voters
[00:30:47] sorry it's readers should do
[00:30:49] makes far less difference than they ever did
[00:30:51] and even
[00:30:53] that was always
[00:30:55] a myth in any case
[00:30:57] and I think it's even more of a myth now
[00:30:59] when circulation is so much smaller
[00:31:01] I mean the effect that these newspapers have
[00:31:03] is indirect in the sense that I think
[00:31:05] by banging on about particular subjects
[00:31:07] they do frighten the BBC and other
[00:31:09] broadcasters into following
[00:31:11] the agenda rather than
[00:31:13] the agenda that actually
[00:31:15] from opinion polling the public says
[00:31:17] is more important to them
[00:31:19] so they do have an indirect effect
[00:31:21] but the direct effects I mean
[00:31:23] who cares really what the Sun
[00:31:25] tells people to do
[00:31:27] I have to say you had to dig down quite a bit
[00:31:29] in the sound to actually see that story
[00:31:31] because it's mainly they seem to push politics
[00:31:33] quite a bit further back
[00:31:35] so how did we get here Tim
[00:31:37] how did we get to a situation where
[00:31:39] we've got first of all quite a bit of volatility
[00:31:41] happening in polls
[00:31:43] but we also have two political parties
[00:31:45] that seem to be
[00:31:47] struggling to make any headway
[00:31:49] ignoring the big issues which as you say is the NHS
[00:31:51] and being driven by
[00:31:53] an agenda like the reform
[00:31:55] agenda like the the the the
[00:31:57] the Merdock agenda rather than
[00:31:59] you know the olden days when you'd have
[00:32:01] politicians and prime ministers who would
[00:32:03] be touching those
[00:32:05] significant issues and actually
[00:32:07] do have a plan that does work
[00:32:09] unlike I think you're looking back with a bit of
[00:32:11] roast into it well maybe I am a little bit
[00:32:13] but it just it just feels like on both
[00:32:15] sides we were a bit of a dead end there's a lack
[00:32:17] of an agenda is that the fair way of putting
[00:32:19] yeah I mean I think Labour will go on
[00:32:21] the NHS to be honest I mean it did make me
[00:32:23] laugh this morning I was reading the FT
[00:32:25] that you know Labour had accused Rishi Sunak
[00:32:27] of failing on the NHS I think you know
[00:32:29] to be honest they just pointed out
[00:32:31] it's failed on the NHS it doesn't
[00:32:33] take an accusation I mean
[00:32:35] I think you know you do have to go
[00:32:37] back to Jeremy Corbyn
[00:32:39] cratering the Labour Party's reputation
[00:32:41] and it's still taking time I think
[00:32:43] to deliver that they haven't chosen
[00:32:45] a particularly charismatic leader
[00:32:47] has to be said and I think that does make a difference
[00:32:49] I think people's perceptions of leaders
[00:32:51] you know do make a difference in terms
[00:32:53] of their enthusiasm for parties
[00:32:55] is there anyone there who you think could do a better job
[00:32:57] out of the Labour ranks
[00:32:59] no I mean I think
[00:33:01] you know in years to come
[00:33:03] you know we might be looking at say
[00:33:05] West Street saying or somebody like that
[00:33:07] but certainly I don't think anyone could do a better job
[00:33:09] than Kirsten Armour at the moment
[00:33:11] so I mean in terms of the
[00:33:13] agenda I mean it's
[00:33:15] it is difficult I mean elections
[00:33:17] you know
[00:33:19] rarely actually
[00:33:21] focus laser like
[00:33:23] on you know what the public say is important
[00:33:25] you know there's a degree to which
[00:33:27] both parties talk past each other and talk about
[00:33:29] those issues that are
[00:33:31] most important or at least play best
[00:33:33] for them and
[00:33:35] to be honest I mean your comment about rose tints
[00:33:37] of spectacles is probably right you know
[00:33:39] it was ever thus to some extent
[00:33:41] so we ought to go away with the idea that
[00:33:43] previously things were so much better
[00:33:45] than they are now I'm not sure
[00:33:47] that's the case having said that however
[00:33:49] I do think
[00:33:51] people are now
[00:33:53] particularly cynical and particularly
[00:33:55] fed up and fatigued
[00:33:57] and lacking kind of confidence
[00:33:59] and enthusiasm for any of the alternatives
[00:34:01] but that doesn't mean
[00:34:03] that will stop Labour winning a reasonably
[00:34:05] large majority in the next election
[00:34:07] so on that because we have to go but final question
[00:34:09] on that cynicism I mean it does seem like
[00:34:11] he's going to hang on for as long as possible
[00:34:13] is he going to hang on to the start of next year
[00:34:15] do you think because I would have thought that would just make people
[00:34:17] more angry they'll just see him as squatting
[00:34:19] in number 10
[00:34:21] yeah I mean I think that would be the dominant
[00:34:23] media narrative and to be honest
[00:34:25] we've already had one election that sort of nearly touched Christmas
[00:34:27] I really don't think people would be grateful for one
[00:34:29] that actually ran right across the Christmas period
[00:34:31] so I mean I would have thought November
[00:34:33] it's the last possible moment
[00:34:35] you know realistically that Rishi Sunak
[00:34:37] can go for. Are the earliest?
[00:34:39] Well I mean October
[00:34:41] he's in a bit of a catch-22 because we want it in October
[00:34:43] he'd have to probably cancel
[00:34:45] the Tory party conference which is a big
[00:34:47] money spinner for the Conservatives
[00:34:49] but if he goes in November
[00:34:51] then you know that
[00:34:53] will run across the American election and
[00:34:55] God knows who wants to be endorsed by Donald Trump
[00:34:57] there's a nice
[00:34:59] slide to finish with
[00:35:01] it's interesting
[00:35:03] yes well actually the
[00:35:05] Trump lots have been saying how much they like
[00:35:07] David Lamy, bizarrely
[00:35:09] yes weirdest of things
[00:35:11] anyway Tim thank you so much for doing that
[00:35:13] for us really interesting
[00:35:15] and well we will come back to you
[00:35:17] I'm sure in due course Tim thanks
[00:35:19] thanks a lot bye
[00:35:21] so who knows
[00:35:23] but we think we have a better idea
[00:35:25] I think we do
[00:35:27] I think we do know who our next prime minister is going to be don't we
[00:35:29] but how much of that election
[00:35:31] here's an interesting question will be decided
[00:35:33] by new media, by social media
[00:35:35] by the ways in which people believe stories
[00:35:37] online that they probably shouldn't
[00:35:39] things that aren't true but get put up there
[00:35:41] so how much is it going to be false
[00:35:43] fake news? Very possibly and
[00:35:45] how is that affecting our society because
[00:35:47] what we're going to talk about next week is
[00:35:49] this is the longest segue you've ever done
[00:35:51] I'm going with it
[00:35:53] I noticed that, no no it's very valid
[00:35:55] because what I'm saying is social media
[00:35:57] is a bit of a wild west we know this but
[00:35:59] for young people particularly it's worse
[00:36:01] than that because you can get all kinds of awful things
[00:36:03] from seeing being said
[00:36:05] that affect their lives in very dramatic ways
[00:36:07] and we know so far
[00:36:09] that the social media companies they shrug
[00:36:11] they don't care
[00:36:13] because if you engage you're clicking
[00:36:15] you're getting more add dollars
[00:36:17] for them so yeah why would they care
[00:36:19] and they're so big and so rich they kind of don't need to
[00:36:21] worry about legislation in many cases
[00:36:23] or perhaps feel they don't yeah and I think
[00:36:25] the government is, I mean this is one thing that perhaps the government
[00:36:27] is right on it was a government
[00:36:29] department so I'm sure the
[00:36:31] the approach probably wouldn't change too much but if
[00:36:33] we're the changing government but
[00:36:35] yeah there does need to be laws because
[00:36:37] they are not going to self-regulate
[00:36:39] that is very clear but the laws are also going to
[00:36:41] have bite because the problem is as you say
[00:36:43] they can make loads of money so in a way they don't
[00:36:45] really care about big fines particularly
[00:36:47] because they're going to do something pretty heavy
[00:36:49] and it looks like the government
[00:36:51] what's left of it is moving in that direction
[00:36:53] but is it going to be effective
[00:36:55] is that actually a way of doing it because
[00:36:57] people will find ways around these things
[00:36:59] yeah well of food using
[00:37:01] what were they called
[00:37:03] old man tries to understand
[00:37:05] modern technology
[00:37:07] I used to work in the tech industry
[00:37:09] anyway people are
[00:37:11] back in the days of telegraph
[00:37:13] anyway they're spoofing their IP address
[00:37:15] there's all kinds of ways around it and this is the problem
[00:37:17] in a way protecting young people from themselves
[00:37:19] that sounds terrible but that is effectively what's going
[00:37:21] to have to happen because
[00:37:23] there's a feeling that people are
[00:37:25] can easily access things that do them harm
[00:37:27] immense harm at an age
[00:37:29] when they're not capable of dealing with it
[00:37:31] okay we'll look, we'll talk about all of that
[00:37:33] and I'll get up to
[00:37:35] speed with the technology
[00:37:37] she wondered about that thing in the corner
[00:37:39] it comes on
[00:37:41] I'm not 100% today because I've had
[00:37:43] this big work done on my teeth
[00:37:45] so it's been a struggle getting food today
[00:37:47] they're all your own
[00:37:49] most teeth aren't they?
[00:37:51] well one of them has been
[00:37:53] they're all paid for
[00:37:55] we'll see you next week on the YCIRV
[00:37:57] thanks for listening today