UK/EU - A Closer Disunion?

[00:00:00] The Why Curve, Phil Dobbie and Roger Heering

[00:00:03] Back into Europe, Keir Starmer's the first UK leader since the 2016 referendum to signal

[00:00:09] he wants closer ties with the EU. And the polls suggest public attitudes here have shifted

[00:00:15] dramatically since Brexit. Even so, Labour still seems terrified of what's been a toxic issue.

[00:00:21] Rejoining may be a far away dream, but there are other options. Free movement,

[00:00:26] at least for young people, could be back on the agenda. And some accommodation with the

[00:00:30] single market and customs union might be possible. So are we heading back towards Brussels?

[00:00:35] And how far does the EU want to deal again with the troublesome nation that caused them so many

[00:00:40] headaches as we struggle to leave? The Why Curve. I don't know why we don't just go back in.

[00:00:47] I know you don't know me, but I can give you a whole list of reasons.

[00:00:50] Well, the only reason would be because people are dissatisfied with the idea of that,

[00:00:54] but most people would be quite happy. The polls suggest people are far more open to that,

[00:01:00] but there's massive issues apart from the else. I think the way the polls were before it actually

[00:01:04] happened, it had pretty much turned, hadn't it? We had the vote and then after the vote,

[00:01:10] even before we enacted it, people were thinking this is a bad idea.

[00:01:14] But don't forget that Boris Johnson won the 2019 election largely on the basis of

[00:01:18] actually going through with it and won pretty well. Despite everything that happened after

[00:01:22] that. So I think you shouldn't discount the fact of how many people then and possibly now,

[00:01:28] although it's a very much diminishing number. We've seen the problems though, haven't we? We've

[00:01:32] seen the obstacles, even though the obstacles were very clear to most of us beforehand.

[00:01:35] Yeah. A lot of people didn't see that Northern Ireland border, for example,

[00:01:38] or the fact that there would be customs controls. We were told...

[00:01:42] The fact that you might have to get a visa to go into Europe.

[00:01:44] Imagine that! Yes, all of that. And the fact that for generations our kids have

[00:01:48] been able to work not for generations, but for a long time our kids have been able to

[00:01:51] work wherever they wanted and now they've got limitations on all of that. So I think

[00:01:55] on reflection, most people would say, well, okay, if we can have all of that, and what we don't want

[00:01:58] to do though is go back in and join the Euro. We've got to maintain our sovereign currency.

[00:02:05] Oh right. Well you can't. I mean the Euro, the big problem, the fundamental problem with

[00:02:09] all of this gets down to the Euro being one currency, which Germany is a strong nation,

[00:02:15] so is France. They've got all the strength in what was the Deutsche Mark is controlling,

[00:02:19] the whole economy for Europe and we'd just be joining that. That's the mistake.

[00:02:25] I think so, yeah. If we didn't have a single currency and we just had a trading block

[00:02:30] and we had tariffs for imports, we had an element of protectionism, I think all of that

[00:02:34] works fine. I think it's just the currency. Well there's various doubts about that, but

[00:02:38] anyway, the point is I don't think... You see the lucky gives me a...

[00:02:43] Honestly, he's a farargest at heart. But the thing, the problem you've got is that

[00:02:48] we want to be close. We want to have trade relationships. We want all those advantages.

[00:02:53] I mean you can absolutely understand that there might be many people in Brussels going,

[00:02:56] oh no, not you lot again. We showed you the door once. Thank you very much.

[00:03:00] And that would be understandable too. Do you think so? Yes!

[00:03:03] I think they'd be quite happy to take us back. I think they'd be saying, well okay,

[00:03:08] there you are. You've done well done to demonstrating to everybody else that it just

[00:03:11] doesn't work leaving the EU, so we can look forward to a close chapter of European relations.

[00:03:16] We don't want to invite you straight back in, otherwise people say, well yes, we can leave

[00:03:19] and just come back in when we fancy it. It doesn't work. No, no, no. And you've got France and

[00:03:23] Germany that has two big beasts, and the great thing about all the others in the EU,

[00:03:26] they liked having Britain in because it balanced out the two big beasts essentially.

[00:03:30] Yes. And France and Germany hold most of the votes, hold most of the power,

[00:03:34] so they're not going to welcome Britain back for the same reason. So I think it's highly,

[00:03:38] highly dubious. But the thing is are there lots of things along the way that we could be

[00:03:43] doing. Like the halfway house missions. Yeah, I mean get closer, get all the rest of that,

[00:03:46] but they still seem all, you know, labor, terribly worried, oh gosh. No, we're not going

[00:03:50] back in, not in my lifetime so cute. I do like this idea that people under 30 can travel freely,

[00:03:54] and then everyone, the older people who voted for Brexit by and large can't.

[00:03:58] Their holiday homes are clearly not going to work, are they?

[00:04:02] No, well there we are. So yeah, they have to sell them to the under 30s.

[00:04:05] All those nice places they have in Spain and in Sicily and Malta.

[00:04:07] And they're not down priced to the under 30s, they can buy the houses off them.

[00:04:10] Well, let's talk to someone who knows in detail what this could mean potentially for Britain,

[00:04:16] how far, how close we could go. And that's David Hennick, he's director of the UK

[00:04:20] trade policy project at the European Centre for International Political Economy and he joins us

[00:04:25] now. So David, a question that we asked us before you came on, it seems to me like if we try and

[00:04:31] find some sort of compromise in our relationship with the rest of Europe, that's going to be

[00:04:37] problematic, it's going to take a long time. Might it not just be easier for us to all sort of

[00:04:42] confess that we made a bit of a mistake and we want to be back in again?

[00:04:46] That's a lot of people would like to the UK to confess we made a mistake and go straight back

[00:04:51] in. The word that is the problem there is easier. Would that be easier? No, I fear not. There's

[00:04:58] no straightforward path back now for the UK to rejoining the EU.

[00:05:05] Why is it not a straight path? I mean, if we exited one way, can't we just reverse whatever

[00:05:10] it is we did? I mean, clearly there is a process for new member countries and there

[00:05:14] in lies the problem. The process for new member countries is one that a number of countries are

[00:05:19] already going through. Obviously the most notable applicant is Ukraine but then there's Serbia,

[00:05:24] there's Turkey has been an applicant for an extremely long time and it's a matter of

[00:05:32] showing that you're going to meet all your treaty commitments. But it's also in convincing

[00:05:36] the existing members that you're going to be serious about that and that you're not just

[00:05:43] going to renege on all your commitments and I'm afraid that right now the UK is not in that

[00:05:49] position of being on the EU. Are you saying you've got a reputation?

[00:05:53] It's actually worse, I think, than most people realise the UK's reputation in Brussels. I

[00:05:59] have these conversations in basement meeting rooms of commissioned buildings and suddenly my

[00:06:05] interlocutor will say something like, well, of course you know what happened with a look of fear

[00:06:09] on their face. I'm thinking, well, I have no idea what happened but whatever it was clearly

[00:06:13] traumatised you quite deeply. I think there was some pretty awful negotiating practice in the

[00:06:18] room as it were where it was happening between 2018 and 2020. And then even then, since then,

[00:06:27] the UK has widely viewed to have not really fully implemented our commitments in the treaties.

[00:06:33] We're not viewed as really understanding the EU, understanding what it's about. So

[00:06:39] what I'm being told all the time is you've got to fix all of those things before you even think

[00:06:45] of rejoining. So even if they did start to trust us again, we'd be coming in under more

[00:06:51] onerous conditions because we had the best of both worlds in a way, didn't we? Well,

[00:06:55] we had the various opt-outs, didn't we? So we wouldn't get any of that, presumably,

[00:06:59] if we came back in. Well, these are interesting questions. So I mean,

[00:07:03] we had the opt-out, we didn't have to join the euro as a good example of that.

[00:07:07] We obviously had a budget rebate. We had various other bits and pieces of opt-outs,

[00:07:14] justice and home affairs special arrangements. It's not impossible that there would be

[00:07:19] opt-outs again, but that would be per negotiation. And you start with a position

[00:07:24] that probably wouldn't be, and you certainly can't go back to the EU and say, well, we're prepared

[00:07:29] to join as long as you give us the deal exactly that we want. That's not exactly showing

[00:07:37] penitence for past behavior. So it's not impossible that you might get opt-outs.

[00:07:43] I think it's possible to argue you might get one on the euro, for example.

[00:07:48] Right. That was going to be my next question. So you think that they would say, well, okay,

[00:07:51] you don't have to join the euro? Because I imagine everybody who joins the EU now is being told,

[00:07:56] well, you're going to become a full member and you're going to be part of the euro as well.

[00:08:00] I mean, in these sorts of negotiations, if there is a real stumbling block,

[00:08:05] otherwise everybody is happy with everything, then often a fudge can be found. So it might not be

[00:08:09] you don't have to join the euro, but it could easily be we'll have a review on joining the

[00:08:14] euro in five years after your membership or 10 years after your membership, which is kicking

[00:08:18] it into the long grass. So once you establish the framework for things, don't underestimate

[00:08:22] the creativity of negotiators to bring forward an outcome that sort of satisfies but doesn't

[00:08:30] quite satisfy either side. In fact, never mind rejoining the EU. I suspect we're going to see

[00:08:34] a lot of this in the next few years where the UK gradually creeps back into the EU orbit

[00:08:40] using creativity like that. In fact, I would argue we already did do that, some of that under

[00:08:45] I was going to say, and that's kind of where we're going. If effectively what you're saying

[00:08:49] is rejoining is not certainly an immediate option. What are the ways in which we could move back?

[00:08:55] Because we've seen what happened with Kerstama clearly signaling a willingness to be closer

[00:09:02] when he talks in France and also in Berlin. But what could be done? They sort of ruled out,

[00:09:09] I suppose, the single market, certainly free movement apart from perhaps for young people.

[00:09:14] So what could happen? And also, what did we do with Rishi Sunak? I must have missed that.

[00:09:19] She didn't seem particularly pro. Well, there's quite interesting bits of the Windsor framework

[00:09:24] that were negotiated. So obviously all the attention on the Windsor framework was on the

[00:09:28] ways the UK government might allow the Northern Ireland Assembly to not to align with the EU.

[00:09:35] What was missed in there, for example, was that the UK agreed to align a number of our

[00:09:39] policies for food coming into the UK with those of the EU in terms of SPS inspections in order

[00:09:46] for those to go to Northern Ireland. So there's a little bit of alignment that is hidden, but

[00:09:51] the UK committed to entreaty under Rishi Sunak. So SPS, this is sort of

[00:09:55] standard, veterinary standards, that kind of thing? These are inbound checks of food and

[00:10:00] drink coming from the rest of the world. So there was a little bit there. What I suspect,

[00:10:06] okay, what can you practically do? Lots of small things. So we already talk about a security

[00:10:12] partnership. Nobody quite knows what that's likely to mean, but we're talking about

[00:10:16] coordination of defence industries. You've already seen a lot of coordination around

[00:10:21] sanctions. We can reduce the number of checks on food and drink products that are going both ways.

[00:10:29] The UK could have mutual recognition agreements with the EU that if a product was okay for sale

[00:10:34] in the UK, it was okay for sale in the EU. We could join the regional rules of origin scheme,

[00:10:41] which is all a bit technical, but basically there is something called the Pan Euro Med Convention

[00:10:46] on Rules of Origin and that potentially puts you back into a deeper cooperation with all

[00:10:53] the countries around the EU as well as the EU itself. So join the EU with the

[00:10:59] We'll go back to you, listen just a second. Just on that, on that rules of origin.

[00:11:03] So you bring a good in from outside the EU and from outside the UK and you add value to it.

[00:11:09] That's what that should be related to as to how much you can add value, how much of the

[00:11:13] original product can come from overseas, that sort of thing? The way it works if you're in this

[00:11:20] Pan Euro Med area is if for example you're exporting a product to the EU

[00:11:27] and then it's going to be further exported to Serbia, then that effectively becomes fine.

[00:11:32] The rules of origin are the other same whereas otherwise it can be quite tricky to do that.

[00:11:40] We see it in the other way around as well at the moment that there are various

[00:11:44] EU processing centres such as flowers in Amsterdam or fish in Belogne in France.

[00:11:49] At the moment you can't just export from a neighbouring country into the EU and then

[00:11:54] on to the UK it doesn't meet the rules of origin criteria for coming from the EU.

[00:11:59] What joining the scheme does is it means that you do meet the rule of origin criteria so you

[00:12:04] do get it tariff free. What it means in practical terms is that it removes a big barrier to the

[00:12:08] UK being part of industrial supply chains which is exactly the sort of thing the Labour

[00:12:13] Government wants to be part of is ensuring that the UK manufacturers can supply into the EU

[00:12:21] who can in turn supply around the region. What about the idea of free ports that the last

[00:12:26] government had? I mean that was part of trying to bring in add value and presumably export to Europe.

[00:12:31] And also exploit the fact that we are out of Europe and then that was the free port thing.

[00:12:35] Was that sound thinking or was it not working in practice?

[00:12:38] Well in practice with free ports is a problem anyway in that it was never entirely clear how

[00:12:42] those sit alongside the trade and cooperation agreement with the EU. The idea of free ports

[00:12:49] you're basically processing goods from other countries and re-exporting them without having

[00:12:55] to pay duties in the UK. In reality there's not a lot of that that goes on anyway so the answer is

[00:13:02] by and large they were likely to be a distraction from most of this.

[00:13:09] I mean would Europe have taken them? Would Europe have taken those goods or would Europe

[00:13:13] say hang on a second? A little unclear because there's a couple of factors there. State aid

[00:13:18] is a big factor as to whether there's there's illegal state aid going on there and then there's

[00:13:23] a factor of to what extent they're actually covered in UK, EU and the trade and cooperation

[00:13:29] agreement. That's an even more technical question than I can get into now because I'd

[00:13:34] actually have to check it all. Yeah let's roll it back a little bit because I mean you know we

[00:13:40] are representing this from a fairly pro-EU point of view that we all have here but there will

[00:13:45] be people who say well the if we are aligning with EU standards and the various agreements

[00:13:51] you've been mentioning and basically going along with that was there is there any loss of

[00:13:58] advantage that we had by being outside that when everyone thinks of Brexit you know the

[00:14:02] fact is we are in that state at the moment. Is there anything we're losing by entering

[00:14:07] these agreements that we're talking about? In reality no, in reality the EU is the

[00:14:13] regulatory hegemon for goods and aligning our regulations in goods there is there are regulations

[00:14:21] everywhere. There is this idea that somehow there's a whole other bunch of regulations or that the

[00:14:27] EU is the only country that regulates, everyone regulates, they all regulate slightly differently,

[00:14:33] the EU is considered the most important global regulator particularly for goods and therefore

[00:14:39] meeting the EU regulations actually helps to sell your products globally as well because it's a kind

[00:14:45] of badge that you meet what is perceived to be the highest standards in the world. So

[00:14:51] it doesn't really lose you anything, it certainly doesn't lose you anything with most the rest

[00:14:56] of the world with the US there was always this question because they have different food

[00:14:59] standards but everybody has more or less ruled out these food standards which is the famous

[00:15:04] chlorine washed chicken and Hortmone treated beef so in reality no there's no real loss to it

[00:15:11] the only sector where the UK is in effect its own rule maker is really in financial services and

[00:15:17] there you'll note there's no great appetite to suddenly align our rules there with the

[00:15:24] That's an interesting area actually because you know as you said and it's a huge part of the

[00:15:27] UK economy the financial services area and in any of these movements back towards Brussels

[00:15:35] if some of that going to be hampered I mean we know that Frankfurt and Paris up to a point

[00:15:39] were quite keen to take some of that business where does it position us now if we're beginning

[00:15:46] to go back to Brussels on these things could some of that independence going to go?

[00:15:50] That's an interesting question I don't think not in the initial period but I think that's

[00:15:55] a question that people will start to think of say towards the end of this government if they've

[00:15:59] achieved a few of these small movements back towards the EU will countries like Germany, France,

[00:16:05] Ireland think actually we don't want them moving any closer we do we did quite well

[00:16:10] grabbing some of their business I'm not sure that that will that will come up

[00:16:15] so much because I think that a lot of that adjustment has now happened so I think that's

[00:16:22] banks have set up their own operations in Europe for example they've got and as small as they

[00:16:27] can get away with basically to carry on doing trade haven't they I mean it's

[00:16:31] as you say I think it's I think that horse has bolted and was probably not too much can change

[00:16:35] I think that a lot of horses have bolted I think a lot of the things that we assume

[00:16:40] might happen and when this is down to customs union single market but it also includes

[00:16:44] the simple rejoin but it also includes whether we're going to have dynamic alignment or ECJ

[00:16:52] oversight or all of these these are kind of old arguments from when we still hadn't actually left

[00:16:57] now we've left it's a different case now it's a case of small changes and negotiating your way

[00:17:05] through them rather than some sort of huge thing like we're going to align absolutely all of our

[00:17:11] regulations with the EU in whole sectors or whatever it's going to be more piecemeal than that

[00:17:17] so we need to align though I mean if we want to take chicken from America that has been

[00:17:23] chlorine washed or whatever they want to wash in it and treat cows however they want to treat them

[00:17:29] if we want to take that food then we can't we don't have to align with the EU it's just

[00:17:32] anything we're selling into the EU obviously has to be aligned with their requirements

[00:17:37] and shouldn't we if we're going to do a lot more of that surely if they're setting standards

[00:17:42] we'd want to have a seat at the table wouldn't we on that to actually have a you know have a

[00:17:45] say in the regulations if we are inputting into it. A couple of big questions there

[00:17:50] I mean on the second one we have half a seat at the table anyway because a lot of these regulations

[00:17:54] get discussed in international fora for example on animal health standards you've got the

[00:18:02] a couple of organisations that do that you obviously got the got the WTO the UK has some

[00:18:09] some sway on that anyway we've already aligned in terms of voluntary standards we're part of

[00:18:16] the European standardisation framework as we were before Brexit so in a sense we still have a

[00:18:27] influence but clearly not as much as we did have. On the question of can we just let anything come in

[00:18:34] and then sell what we want in area like agriculture possibly not where the EU is checking to see whether

[00:18:42] what we send to them could be contaminated and the more risk there is or that the UK is not

[00:18:48] really checking or has very different rules for food coming in the less likely you are to get

[00:18:53] significant easements for your own exports so you have to consider those sorts of issues and in

[00:18:59] general there's not a great deal of consumer demand for that so in all of these areas you are

[00:19:05] considering it one area for example where the UK might continue to diverge is genetically modified

[00:19:10] food where we never quite had the same view as the EU but that might not actually make a

[00:19:16] difference in terms of exporting food there but I can imagine that that will be quite a

[00:19:21] subject of discussion and negotiators are just going to be at that level of detail so for all

[00:19:26] Kirsten Armour's sort of big picture we want to reset it's all going to come down to lots of these

[00:19:32] small details in meeting rooms. What about you know you mentioned the Windsor framework earlier

[00:19:37] and that was a huge problem the whole Northern Ireland question and even the Windsor framework

[00:19:41] in the end it always seemed to be you have a fundamental issue is Northern Ireland separate

[00:19:47] from the rest of Ireland or is it not is there a hard board or is there not and all the implications

[00:19:52] that that has or whether indeed there was a border down the Irish Sea which was one of the

[00:19:56] odd ideas at one point. Is there any likely movement on that because a lot of people think even with

[00:20:01] the Windsor framework it hasn't really been sorted out. It's an interesting question because if

[00:20:06] you go to Brussels or Berlin as I did in the last few months you'll find they ask about Northern

[00:20:11] Ireland they continue to be interested in a little bit concerned and actually it's somewhere

[00:20:15] that the UK maybe can take a little bit of advantage of now it wants closer ties at a UKU level

[00:20:21] is that there is concern that perhaps the Windsor framework arrangements still aren't really ideal

[00:20:26] and that a UK EU deal on food and drink products would really help stabilize things in in Northern

[00:20:34] Ireland so I think that that might happen. I think that the Windsor framework remains

[00:20:38] far from ideal in terms of the barriers it does put up between Great Britain and Northern Ireland

[00:20:44] so I expect there will be further movement. There's actually a problem it's not just on the UK side

[00:20:49] for what we ask it's on the EU side as well so I've had conversations with EU negotiators who say

[00:20:54] oh no we're not going to change this is it this is the final version and then I say well what if

[00:20:59] the UK wants to do more to align more with the EU so in the EU hasn't necessarily thought

[00:21:06] everything through either so whereas we're used to quick negotiations taking place

[00:21:12] Brexit all negotiated in a fortnight for under Boris Johnson or a trading cooperation agreement in a

[00:21:16] few months I think now we have to get used to slower time where these things are going to be

[00:21:21] discussed over periods of months and years and Northern Ireland will be one of those.

[00:21:26] Yeah it's all happening at EU speed rather than the oven baked solution that you just take out.

[00:21:31] Yeah it's no longer oven baked, yeah no longer and certainly not in the microwave.

[00:21:34] So what about you know if we find that the easiest way of moving forward is that we

[00:21:40] basically operate to EU standards you know domestically as well as you know whatever we're

[00:21:45] shipping backwards and forwards to Europe we you know we say well okay we're going to follow

[00:21:49] those standards as well so you don't have any concerns that we are in effect operating almost

[00:21:53] as though we are part of Europe I mean that might expedite negotiations on getting stuff

[00:21:59] traffic through customs that little bit quicker for example but I mean a Brexiteer would say well

[00:22:04] on that case in that case we have gained nothing at all. Well that is what some of them are already

[00:22:09] saying is we're gaining nothing at all but what are we actually thinking we're gaining I mean

[00:22:16] it was never entirely clear but you know was being able to set our own food and drink standards

[00:22:22] for something that's mostly global was that really something that we were brexiting for?

[00:22:27] We're outside the common agricultural policy, we're outside the common fisheries policy

[00:22:30] but we still have shared waters so we have to negotiate over fish. We're outside the direct

[00:22:36] jurisdiction of the ECJ we don't have free movement so you know it depends what you know

[00:22:42] does it really come down to we have to be outside of everything and in that case well

[00:22:45] that's the North Korea version of brexit because in reality these are international matters

[00:22:51] the setting of rules and regulations. It's not an you know only North Korea stands outside

[00:22:58] of that and I don't think that's you know that's not realistic it's not what anybody

[00:23:02] wants we're a trading economy inevitably we are going to end up meeting some of the

[00:23:07] standards and regulations of our largest trading partner by far which is the EU.

[00:23:11] What about the freedom of movement you mentioned it then it's something we haven't really focused

[00:23:15] on there is this suggestion that young people maybe there may be some system of young people

[00:23:19] being able to have free movement within a certain time period but in the end I mean a lot of

[00:23:24] the push to brexit of course was to do with migration still something that hasn't been

[00:23:29] sorted in any way really is there a movement area on that away from goods and services coming

[00:23:36] back to actual basics of moving people around and what could work on that front. So the idea was

[00:23:41] 30 wasn't it? Yeah I used to have 30. Well yeah then for a short period possibly but a test

[00:23:46] period but do you think that's the way forward David? Well it's something that the EU has asked

[00:23:50] for a youth mobility scheme partly because the UK had opened talks with a number of member states

[00:23:55] some of whom were happy to keep that going bilaterally and some of whom

[00:24:00] said we're not happy to do this bilaterally we want it to be done at the EU level and they

[00:24:04] won in that respect. It is only youth mobility at this point and it's not freedom of movement

[00:24:10] it's a one or two year visa usually it may be numbers capped that will allow people from

[00:24:16] both sides to travel and work to the other one. I think that it's going to have to happen

[00:24:22] because it's now becoming a EU ask so the UK is going to have to accept that if we want our own

[00:24:28] asks to be taken seriously. It's a good move for I mean you're saying that we'll have to but I mean

[00:24:33] it's a good move forward isn't it for young people all of a sudden that ability to go and

[00:24:38] work in Europe which has been taken away from them by old people who for whatever reason

[00:24:43] chose to go the way they did. I mean for those young people it's the opportunities return

[00:24:47] even if it's only for a couple of years it's better than nothing at all. For UK folk wanting

[00:24:51] to work for example on with the holiday tour companies which has been taken away from that's

[00:24:57] something good. I wouldn't underestimate either the kind of soft power influence that people working

[00:25:02] in London have. The UK's best ally at the moment in the whole EU system is Ursula von der Leyen

[00:25:07] why she spent a year in London as a student. Something that's incredibly symbolic on the

[00:25:13] EU side is could the UK rejoin Erasmus? Now I've been told this can be very cynical it

[00:25:18] could do UK rejoin Erasmus because there's certainly EU officials would like their children to

[00:25:22] be able to come to the UK. We should say Erasmus is a system where people could students from

[00:25:27] any country could go and study effectively for a while at universities in the other one.

[00:25:31] Yes that's right sorry about that but essentially this is something that apparently Boris Johnson

[00:25:37] more or less on a whim said no we're not doing but it's really symbolic to the EU if you

[00:25:41] want to build friendship but also build strong relations for the future that future

[00:25:47] influencers are going to be warmly disposed towards the UK then actually you want to do

[00:25:53] these things for youth mobility scheme or student exchanges or whatever. I mean when

[00:25:59] people talk some of the people even working on this policy area in government have talked about

[00:26:03] maybe we could have an MLCMS which they call a midlife crisis mobility scheme but I'm afraid

[00:26:08] doesn't quite get you as much good will and there's rather less demand for it I'm afraid.

[00:26:14] It's a shame but there is a sense that that is something that has been lost

[00:26:19] and I think more British people feel that than feel perhaps as much about trade ties or whatever it is

[00:26:25] a sense that you know all those who've had holiday homes in Spain and then realize they

[00:26:29] couldn't necessarily go easily and now we're talking about visas and visa waiver forms

[00:26:33] and all kinds of things. I mean that seems to me politically could be a reasonably

[00:26:38] easy thing to reopen particularly if it goes alongside greater cooperation in terms of stopping

[00:26:44] I don't know small boats and what have you. It's a shift in attitude isn't it because I remember

[00:26:47] I went lived out of the country for 25 years when I left this was in the late 80s only 90s

[00:26:53] and I was a young man back in those days and everyone you know young people were saying

[00:26:57] you know how glad they were that they were European we know it was being part of Europe

[00:27:01] was just as important as being part of Britain. I was quite shocked to come back and find that

[00:27:06] you know that attitude had completely shifted but you know I mean that's the healthy environment

[00:27:11] we're talking about isn't it to be able to return to that way of thinking where we are

[00:27:15] European and we you know we don't have to be part of the EU to be European perhaps.

[00:27:20] I can see some some brexitter objections to that entirely but I suppose yes clearly from those who

[00:27:30] want to be part of Europe. One of the points I often make think about though from the brexit side

[00:27:39] of things is you know they do need brexit to be stable I mean if you look at countries that chose

[00:27:44] not to be part of the EU Switzerland and Norway and that are relatively happy not being part of

[00:27:49] the EU they do have a stable and a close relationship so I do think that the the

[00:27:55] folk who want nothing to do with Europe they they kind of deny that reality that actually

[00:28:00] most people even those who voted for brexit don't want to be stuck in queues at passport don't mind

[00:28:05] some youth mobility and various of these other things so yeah in in that sense I think that

[00:28:13] the Labour government should be making a stronger case for doing some of this stuff

[00:28:17] just as it just makes sense for geography it makes sense for all our lives

[00:28:22] and it doesn't really talk to to rejoining so you know I said I don't think it does

[00:28:27] what do you think we've lost and what do we need to get back I guess that's the you know

[00:28:31] perhaps the question I should have asked at the beginning you could spend half an hour

[00:28:34] answering it because that seems like the most fundamental question how do we get back you

[00:28:37] know just somewhere close to where we were well in you know in trade terms you're not going

[00:28:42] to get that close to back to where you were without rejoining but in terms of getting your

[00:28:47] reputation back as a reasonable country you just implement what you've actually said you were

[00:28:52] going to implement and you negotiate in good faith you negotiate cleverly you say here are the

[00:28:58] things we want we we are very happy to listen to the things you want let's have a negotiation

[00:29:02] and let's find a mutual deal you you act like a normal country is what we've lost in the

[00:29:08] last few years with regard to the EU and the first thing that we need to get back is that

[00:29:14] credibility and reputation as people who are reasonable to do business and are we doing that

[00:29:21] with the changing government now we've made a reasonable start so the travels that have been

[00:29:28] made by Kerst Armour and others in the cabinet have been appreciated the phone calls that were

[00:29:33] made to commissioners were appreciated the response on youth mobility to what the EU was saying

[00:29:39] was definitely not appreciated and was the subject of rather a lot of concern among among

[00:29:45] ambassadors in London for example so sort of seven or eight out of ten though which is a huge

[00:29:52] amount better than Rishi Sunek was more or less sort of keeping this under under wraps and sort of

[00:29:57] everything was in cold storage but at least it wasn't as hostile as under Boris Johnson

[00:30:01] he had a huge problem to deal with I mean he had his you know his back benches his party

[00:30:06] to deal with what Kerst Armour's got is a huge majority and a sense that the opinion polls are

[00:30:11] certainly pushing the the idea that actually people are far more open to coming back towards

[00:30:16] Europe far more positive about Europe in a way you almost wonder why he isn't doing more in all

[00:30:22] that there's a lot of concern in labour senior circles that they don't want to be seen as

[00:30:29] the remain party immediately running back towards the EU so I understand that but I think they

[00:30:33] need to I think what they haven't thought of is finding a new narrative I do tend to think that

[00:30:39] a more gifted communicator a bled I would find Derek Derwan say it for the older listeners a

[00:30:46] third way to to describe UK EU relations and to make make it sound acceptable both to those who

[00:30:53] want to leave and to those who wanted to remain and want to rejoin to say you know look we're

[00:30:57] in the position we are but here are the things that we can do with the EU and this reflects

[00:31:02] the majority opinion so I think that's where Labour does need to move to and I think they will

[00:31:06] very slowly I do think they've slightly missed that opportunity at the moment well I think they've

[00:31:11] got this awful you know it's a scar that they carry over what happened in their reputation

[00:31:16] over the whole EU thing and Brexit thing and this was toxic you know so you have to rope it

[00:31:21] off and not touch it and they haven't quite realised it seems to me that they've got beyond

[00:31:25] that point well I think not only has the public gone beyond that but I think you can't rope

[00:31:29] it off or sweep it I use the very sweep it under the carpet it's too much under the carpet there

[00:31:33] are too many things going on there too many issues that just need to be resolved so you

[00:31:38] can't just hide it away from public view not when the energy companies for example

[00:31:43] energy infrastructure companies not the ones who provide our gas and electricity when they're

[00:31:48] saying we need cooperation to make sure that our interconnectors work and North Sea wind

[00:31:53] farms work properly those those sorts of issues you have to deal with on with with neighbours

[00:31:59] migration you have to deal with with with neighbours even that's before you get onto trade and 50

[00:32:04] 50% of your trade but arrivals are up passport so just you can't sweep it under the carpet

[00:32:09] Northern Ireland another another example Gibraltar negotiations have been underway for several

[00:32:14] years there and real concerns as to whether that will come to a conclusion so too big to

[00:32:20] ignore I'm afraid despite their hopes well and we can look forward to a period where we you know

[00:32:26] hopefully do return to somewhere close to where we were and and that soft power they were talking

[00:32:31] about by having more world leaders educated in in London because you know so many of them have been

[00:32:37] you know Gaddafi, Maghabi but David yes let's not go down that route but but David if you

[00:32:42] were taking a guess about the time so we you know we got this government presumably for five

[00:32:46] years potentially another one after that depending on how Father Tory party falls apart

[00:32:51] if by the time of the next election do you think it will look very different that relationship with

[00:32:56] customs? It will feel different I think because a lot of these things will these relations will

[00:33:02] have got deeper there will just be a different atmosphere there will be less mistrust around

[00:33:06] I'm not sure how different it would actually look I think some of the details will be

[00:33:10] better in specific cases but I think a lot of the broad picture will be the same and where

[00:33:15] I think that leads us to is that in three or four years time I see a much bigger debate breaking out

[00:33:20] in the UK about okay are we actually happy with this or do we want to go much further and start

[00:33:26] thinking about about rejoining so I think that's where it comes in I think it's three or four

[00:33:30] years of slightly tedious work to re-establish the relationship rebuild reset indeed then

[00:33:39] are you happy with what you've reset or you know where do we go from here?

[00:33:44] But it's interesting you know so four years down the track you see that we could

[00:33:48] perhaps be talking about rejoining it's not totally cut out for a generation it could happen

[00:33:54] I don't think it's it's cut out at all I mean there are people talking about rejoining now

[00:33:58] but I just don't see it as a as a big groundswell of opinion and we'll be interested to see if

[00:34:03] in three or four years time the organizations who want to rejoin have managed to find a new

[00:34:10] way of talking about this that builds much broader support so I think they also need a little bit

[00:34:16] of a reset in how they're thinking away from the simple rejoining towards here's a process but here's

[00:34:22] a way to make this an attractive process and something the country actually wants to go through

[00:34:27] and it does sound like we'd be we have been on both sides kicking the can down the road over

[00:34:30] some of those difficult questions when it comes to you know the border issues in particular

[00:34:35] are they going to reach ahead so supposedly we're going to find there's going to be delays at

[00:34:39] the border because there's going to be more checks that have to be carried out people have got to get

[00:34:43] their visas in place so are we going to reach ahead on all of that stuff or do you think there's

[00:34:49] going to be more more of the kicking the can down the road because the consequences of it could be

[00:34:53] just too great on both sides really I think we will have the entry schemes that the the EU

[00:34:58] is talking about and the visa waiver schemes and at times that's going to be noticeable

[00:35:03] at the border as at times it already is but it won't be no it won't be always a big problem we

[00:35:11] won't there won't be permanent queues halfway from Dover to London but some of the time there is

[00:35:16] and we see that already so yeah sorry if this is all a bit of a sort of on the one hand on the

[00:35:21] other hand sort of thing but I just don't think we're going we're headed to a point where

[00:35:25] everything will suddenly be resolved or everything will suddenly get terrible we're just going to see

[00:35:29] sort of bits and pieces of progress nothing that sort of fundamentally changes everything

[00:35:36] happening let's politics yeah back in the EU in your lifetime David how old are you David

[00:35:43] yeah in my lifetime I have just uh just turned 52 um oh you're glad let's hope so then um

[00:35:50] I think we could I think we could see a much bigger move towards this

[00:35:58] in the in in the in the next 20 years I wouldn't want to to commit to that we will definitely be

[00:36:05] part of the EU but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot more of a push to do that or

[00:36:10] something similar uh in yeah in five to ten years interesting all right thank you so much

[00:36:16] for being with us David fascinating and uh yeah I hope you're right I'm stately nail my colors to

[00:36:22] the master yeah I don't know I don't think it was particularly well hidden good story Dave for many

[00:36:26] of us good story Dave we'll catch you again soon hopefully okay thank you thanks so next week

[00:36:31] telegram so they're the man behind telegram yes the founder and owner of telegram currently not

[00:36:36] actually under arrest but sort of under detention he can't leave France a lot of sharp

[00:36:41] intakes of breath he's actually normally based in Dubai though his origins in Russia

[00:36:45] but the French government moving against so what is he's being accused of is he spying for the

[00:36:50] Russians he's not been accused of anything what they say is they are holding him over an investigation

[00:36:54] to things that were done on on telegram essentially so making him responsible or

[00:37:00] potentially responsible it's the fear that telegram because he's Russian isn't it

[00:37:04] well in origin in origin but again they fell out with the Russians to some extent right um so

[00:37:09] it's a bit unclear but what you've got is a push back it seems against social media in some way

[00:37:15] so it's telegram obviously but then you also got what happened in Brazil yes X has been effectively

[00:37:19] closed down down good idea well yes but you know a free speech anyone you know as Elon Musk would

[00:37:26] undone questionably be saying but I mean that's and that's a fundamental question behind all of

[00:37:30] this isn't it because Elon Musk obviously does use that free speech argument all the time

[00:37:33] but it's a lot I've got more free speech than anybody else because I've got loads of money

[00:37:37] and I've got social media network exactly so it's it's how do you let how do you level off that

[00:37:41] free freedom of speech and is this a moment where big states big countries are beginning to push back

[00:37:48] against these non-state actors that have so much power if it's going to start anyway it's

[00:37:52] going to start in Europe isn't it because it seems to be just about the only area of the world

[00:37:55] that actually seems to have enough clout and the commitment to do this sort of thing yeah so

[00:38:00] I think and I think there is an appetite for it I think there's a feeling they have been

[00:38:04] for a long time unable to restrain these these people who own these these

[00:38:08] well they've had goats haven't they antitrust legislation not necessarily for social media for

[00:38:12] the ills of what it's doing to society but in terms of just its market power yeah but yeah the more

[00:38:18] fundamental question is it's with they are linked market power allows you to do what you want

[00:38:22] but it's what you're doing with that power well exactly and when it began to affect politics

[00:38:26] particularly but also you know as they say an ounce of crime child pornography all kinds

[00:38:31] of things on the on these sites but also the stirring up of the starting of you know conspiracy

[00:38:37] theories or the the the the the burgeoning of them and they saw with the right and then

[00:38:43] there's the question of balance so if Elon Musk for example gets appointed to become a

[00:38:47] minister or even just an advisor to the Trump government in the United States and he's got

[00:38:53] a whole social media network sitting behind him where's the balance there yes oh there's all

[00:38:57] sorts of issues to be considered but are and the last thing that's very likely I would think

[00:39:00] is the US government ever to move against these social media titans well Donald Trump's not going

[00:39:06] to win but neither Kamala Harris I doubt anyone would yeah but as you say maybe Europe's where

[00:39:11] it's beginning to start although interestingly also in Brazil it seems anyway that's what we're

[00:39:14] going to have a look at next week a sense of is this a moment of truth for these

[00:39:19] something called and robber barons who have wheeled so much power without any accountability

[00:39:22] is these tides starting to turn yeah well look at that next week on the why careful join us then

[00:39:27] thanks for listening today we'll catch you then bye the why curve