A Right Mess?

[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing. Is the right going wrong? After many months leading in the polls and a shoo-in to form the next government, Reform UK are now barely level-pegging with Labour, financial scandals, a ridiculed by-election, angry arguments in the leadership, and the even more right-wing restore party snapping at its heels. Meanwhile the Tories seem to be bouncing back. And none of them want to work with each other.

[00:00:27] So what is going to happen on the right of British politics? The Why Curve. Well do you know what, these parties, you get new parties, you see all over the world, they have an idea about how they're going to make the world better, you know, their idea of how they're going to make the world better, but they've never governed, they've not necessarily got all of the history of administration that large parties have got, and so they are muddling through in a haphazard fashion,

[00:00:56] and that is definitely what we've seen with the Reform. They have no idea about how to run a country, or how to run a party, let alone run a country. Well also, you know, this idea that they are new, which is part of the selling point after all, you know, because voters, the idea is to say, oh well, all these others have messed it up, but they seem to be falling into the same old backbiting, financial scandals, scandals, all that kind of thing. And as you say, and they're still only, what, five MPs. So, you know, are things moving?

[00:01:23] Because people assume for the last year and a bit, really, that they're going to be the next government. Certainly the opinion poll suggested that, and that the Tories were history, pretty much. And now, there's certainly a sense that things aren't going that way. I mean, they've got this conference, their autumn conference coming up, and the headline is the first hundred days of government. What they do, you know, it begins to seem like fantasy, doesn't it? Yeah, it does a little bit, doesn't it?

[00:01:51] And how much of this really does just stem from that five million dollars that Farage, five million pounds, yeah. Yeah. Well. He got hold of, because he hasn't ever had a good argument. No. He's had several reasons for it, but none of them seem to tally. No, no. And I think, you know, there is a certain feeling that, you know, this would meet the old, you know, new boss, same as the old boss, really. And they're all in it for whatever they've got. And it's also a kind of one-man party, in a way. And if Farage is sort of out of the running in any way,

[00:02:20] you do wonder if any of the others would be up to doing anything. And I think the return of the Tories is really interesting, because Kemmy Begley is not, you know, much despised. But now, certainly, if you look at the polls, and they had that by-election up in Aberdeen that went for them, and, you know, a sense that maybe they could claw things back. But, yeah, it'd be interesting to see. And Restore. I mean, they're very strange. Far, far out on the right. But they're taking 6%, 7% in the polls at the moment. It's crazy.

[00:02:49] So what are their big election promises in the Restore Party? Well, I mean, a lot of it's re-migration. You see, it all comes back to that thing and pushes it through. So, I mean, it'd be interesting to see what is the shape, because we'd all assume the Tories were out and reform were in, but it doesn't look that way necessarily. Let's talk to Tim Bale, who's Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, an old friend of the programme. He indeed joins us now. So, Tim, did you sort of foresee that Nigel Farage

[00:03:17] might sort of peak and start to pull away as people started to realise perhaps the reality of his character, which we clearly saw with this whole £5 million escapade? I think it is important to stress that it's always been the case that far more people dislike Nigel Farage than like him. And I think it's also important to stress that a lot of people who were, if you like, reform curious rather than kind of diehard Nigel Farage or reform fans

[00:03:46] always, to some extent, have their doubts about the party and about him. So it's not entirely surprising that once he and the party begins to run into some kind of trouble, he's going to burn off some of those people. But he probably thought he could just do, you know, like the US president has done, which is just bluster his way through it with sort of bolted on support. And you're saying that's not the case. He hasn't got quite that same following. No, I think that's a really good point.

[00:04:15] I think one of the drawbacks, if you like, of Trump and reform taking so much of their playbook, if you like, from the United States is they probably overstate the extent to which there are parallels with a politician like Donald Trump, who is to some extent unique in his ability to encounter all sorts of scandals without putting off many of the voters who, for some reason or another, seem to think he's fantastic. Because they can't keep up. I mean, if you keep on having scandals,

[00:04:45] you forget about the last one because you've had another few. Yeah, what are you saying? That Nigel Farage should have some more scandals in their form? Yeah, exactly. Should take some more money. You should take 10 million pounds and everyone will forget about the 5 million. I think, yeah. I think we've reached a point where that probably is, I mean, you know, as Tim says, it's not, it doesn't feel the same way here. It does feel damaging in a growing way. And is it, taking from that, Tim, is it right to say, do you think now, we've seen reform high in the polls for a very long time, working assumption they will be the next government.

[00:05:20] But have they gone past their peak? Difficult to say. I mean, the issues that keep them in play are still there. Although migration, at least legal migration, is growing down. And indeed, the small boats numbers seem to be going down. And the number of people in asylum hotels are going down. Still, those issues are very visible to people. And if they can keep those top of mind for voters, I think they stand a chance. There is a degree to which people are prepared to give Andy Burnham a chance. How long will that last?

[00:05:49] However, I think we have to ask ourselves. And that, I think, might help reform. I think one problem he does have, however, is the fact that it looks as if Kemi Badenoch has not allowed the Conservative Party to fold, as it were. And he's also got Restore Britain nibbling at his flank on the other side. So it's difficult to see him getting back to the kind of over 30% that we've seen. But yeah, who knows? You wouldn't want to write Nigel Farage off. He is the comeback kid, as we've said before.

[00:06:18] And it is interesting about the Tories coming back, as you were saying in the introduction, we mentioned that, because it's not that long ago everyone thought, well, the Tories, it's the end, really. And if anything, reform will swallow them up in some sort of merger of some kind. Now, that's definitely been put on the back burner any talk of merger. But are we moving back towards two-party politics? I'm not sure that is the case, actually. I mean, Kemi Badenoch's numbers have improved markedly, and she's certainly persuaded a lot of people

[00:06:46] who initially were sceptical, who'd voted Conservative to 2024, that actually, you know, the Conservatives are worth giving another look. However, there weren't that many people who voted Conservative in 2024, and the Conservatives are still on, you know, on polls around 19%. So, I mean, I wouldn't overstate the extent to which, you know, the Conservatives are enjoying some kind of recovery. Yeah, I mean, I think

[00:07:16] two-party politics has been eroding really since the early 70s, and I really doubt that we are beginning to, you know, see it restoring itself. I think the people who argue that we're in two-block politics have got more ammunition on their side, in the sense that I think what we can see is people who vote Liberal Democrat or Green or Labour being prepared to vote for each other's candidates if it means keeping out the Conservatives or Reform.

[00:07:46] And likewise, on the right-hand side, the right Conservative bloc, it seems as if people who vote Conservative and Reform are capable of getting together in order to beat a Labour candidate in particular, but also maybe a Liberal Democrat. And also, the two big nationalist parties, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. I think once you start thinking about politics in those terms, it's rather more persuasive than the idea that we're returning to two-party politics. And is it, this idea about

[00:08:16] the right versus left is interesting, isn't it? Because I think people are just wanting a better life. You know, they feel as though people are taking their jobs away. I mean, rightly or wrongly, people think, you know, people from overseas are taking their jobs away. They feel as though their living standards haven't improved. In fact, they're getting worse. It's hard to get jobs. And they've got to blame someone. And so they look to the right because they are new, the far right. They look to the Farage because they are new. But Andy Burnham is coming along with a different approach

[00:08:46] as well. And I wonder whether people care too much whether the answer is what we might traditionally declare a right-wing approach or whether you see it as coming from the left so long as they see something that's being offered that's going to make their life better. And I think that's probably why Andy Burnham has focused so much in the first few weeks of his premiership on the cost of living. In some ways, that is a kind of neutral issue. It doesn't really matter, at least in terms of the things that he's done, whether he's doing them from a left-wing perspective

[00:09:15] or a right-wing perspective. But having said that, I think when you look at the reasons why people vote the way they do, there is still a degree of ideology there, either in terms of more market or more state or increasingly in terms of the so-called sort of culture war issues. Are they socially liberal or are they socially conservative? Are they obsessed with immigration or do they not think that immigration is particularly important? And I think those things still are driving

[00:09:44] people's votes. Although I take your point, we do have to remember that in the end it is fairly practical concerns that motivate most people. And interestingly, of course, a lot of the supporters for reform in the last election have been Labour supporters before and would have considered themselves, I suppose, on the left before. Well, that's interesting because that is the common wisdom. But actually, if you look into the numbers, very few people who voted reform voted for Labour

[00:10:14] in recent years. Some of them might have voted for Labour sort of 20 years ago or something like that. And of course, some people did vote Labour in 2019 and gone over to reform. But actually, most of the voters that reform got in 2024, if they got them from one party, they got them from the Conservatives. So I think we have to be very careful about that kind of stereotype of the kind of northern white van man driver who, you know, voted Labour up until 2024 or maybe up until 2019 when he voted for Boris Johnson,

[00:10:43] then voting for Nigel Farage and reform. I think many of the people who voted for reform have drifted off in that direction really left Labour in the new Labour years. Right, so the red wall, blue wall thing it didn't make, was untrue, that whole idea that a vast chunk of working class support had moved. Well, and let's remember that the white van man has stopped, he's parked his white van now, he's retired, he's become grumpy old man and people do shift to the right, don't they, as they get older. Yeah, I mean, I think one thing to say,

[00:11:13] the red wall concept is a very interesting one, but it was actually quite specific when it was first mooted and it's kind of transmuted in some ways. So when it was first muted by James Kanagasorium and Lizzie Simon, they were talking about constituencies which, if you looked at the demographics of the constituency, really should be voting on the right, should probably be voting conservative, but for some reason sort of labour tradition was holding them back slightly. Once that labour tradition

[00:11:45] had evaporated, which, you know, or eroded over time, which it was beginning to do, then actually you were likely to see those constituencies go conservative or even go reform obviously in the long term. So it then became a kind of label that we placed on any constituency in the north that flipped from labour to conservative or flipped from, you know, conservative in the end to reform. So I think we need to be a bit careful about using

[00:12:15] those terms too loosely, he says, in a nerdy way. So do you think, so you said that Andy Burnham might help reform because his early, his honeymoon period will be over and so, and that might see people going back away from him. So do you think that's the case? Is he just, can he actually be a breath of fresh air for the Labour Party? Just throwing that out there as a possibility that, you know, someone who actually communicates has some fresh ideas might actually be a good thing. Yeah, I mean,

[00:12:44] maybe people will stick with him. Obviously the communication skills are important and I think, you know, he does do that changey hopey thing quite well but in the end he's going to be judged by what he actually delivers and I think if it looks very like Keir Starmer with just a better sales pitch I'm not sure that's going to persuade people he's going to have to get some of the Do you think a cheap bus fare led recovery is not on the Well he's going to have to get the basics right I mean, I think, you know, obviously the economy is going to make a difference so if inflation

[00:13:13] takes off either because of geopolitical developments or some other reason that's going to be a problem I think if youth unemployment doesn't improve a little bit that's going to be a problem I think they really need to concentrate once again on getting waiting lists down the NHS so all those very boring things still have to be done by a government and no amount of narrative I think in the end

[00:13:43] is going to change that and it's also dependent obviously on what the other parties do coming back to your initial questions if Nigel Farage has stalled if reform has gone off the boil if the Conservatives come back a little bit that's actually quite good for Labour in some ways a split right as far as Labour are concerned is exactly what they want so in some way I was going to pick up on that because you talked about the two blocks at the moment you could say that the left block looks a little bit more united perhaps talking

[00:14:13] from the same area not talking against each other so much but the right really does seem to be having all these problems as coming back but does it suggest to you that that is going to be a kind of civil war on the right is that what we look forward to in the next years leading up to the next election yes civil war might be putting it too far but certainly the relationships between those three parties seem pretty tetchy to me it does seem at

[00:14:42] the moment anyway especially if you throw in the nationalist parties that the left block contains voters who are as you've suggested rather more willing to vote tactically for other parties in that block than is necessarily the case on the right now it's not to say that you know that won't happen on the right and there is a good deal of contiguity between reform voters and conservative voters so I wouldn't put it past them but at the moment anyway if you look at the numbers it does seem as if the left block's got an advantage

[00:15:12] in that sense as I say partly because of the nationalist parties are contained within it as well so Tim I don't know if you know I'm living in Australia these days so I'm not quite as close to UK politics as I was but what I am picking up from Andy Burnham is this idea that he's going to try and boost the domestic economy by giving more procurement government procurement to local businesses as an approach to try and get investment in those businesses because they will have support from the

[00:15:42] government buying stuff which at least whether it works or not at least it's an idea I look what are the policies so maybe this could be the downfall as well if they're there saying we just want to stop the boats but there's actually no ideas whether you like that or not at least it's an approach and I'm not hearing that from too many other places at the moment you could argue that the Conservatives have begun to start trying to talk more about the economy

[00:16:12] than some of the cultural issues that is still obsessed with so I think they are ploughing the traditional furrow getting the state out of the way reducing taxation reducing regulation etc and that's a way of getting growth back and that will appeal obviously to like it did I think one of the problems for Labour is they are still rather wedded to this idea of re-industrialisation which I think many economists think is a little bit of

[00:16:41] a fantasy the idea that somehow we're going to be able to get those well-paid skilled manual jobs back in an economy which essentially now is service driven and I think they need to be a little bit careful that they don't go too far in that direction because they simply won't be able to deliver it I think it's interesting because that is a Trump idea isn't it they're taking a page from the Trump book even though Trump is supposedly

[00:17:12] the Labour Party is picking up that which is fundamentally a Donald Trump approach to re-industrialise the country I don't see the Labour Party going for tariffs in the way that Donald Trump does the alternative to tariffs let's try and drive investment through procurement but it's a different approach to the same problem and obviously there are some people in the Labour Party and again I think there is a

[00:17:44] geopolitical situation and the need to some extent to spend more on defence can help with that particular project as well and I think there is something to that but this is not the run-up to the Second World War we're not going to see massive rearmament and therefore factories opening up all over

[00:18:30] the we we just have to be a little bit cautious about thinking that that is the solution just on that point on tariffs though of course I mean that used to be the domain of the left didn't it historically yeah yeah absolutely yeah the whole idea of protectionism it's just taken a complete about turn it's been in all kinds of places you don't forget the corn laws of the 19th century I think you can take it on either side but Tim further to Phil's point about policy areas that

[00:19:00] does seem to be a problem on the right they don't have profile in terms of people necessarily I mean there was that quip over the weekend that Max Hastings saying that actually nobody could name any member of the shadow cabinet apart from Kemi Bader Nock but also there's no real strong policy thing we know that they're against migration we know they're in favour of law and order but beyond that yeah I mean

[00:19:41] I aren't in that space at the moment so it doesn't entirely surprise me that we haven't seen that much I mean reform producing a lot of policy over the summer to do with you know housing and stopping people who are foreign born even if they're British citizens you know being on the social housing council housing lists for example so we've seen quite a lot of domestic policy coming out of reform we haven't seen very much economic policy that's true

[00:20:10] and is it do you think because they haven't got it or they're terrified of putting it out there because the awful truth about reform is that its backers are financiers maybe in crypto or whatever it is which is not a space that most of the people who support them are particularly happy about and they think they want and what they actually do want yeah I think that is a weakness for

[00:20:40] reform I mean I think basically if you look at the people at the top of the party they are absolute thorough going Thatcherites who want a small estate want lower taxation don't want to spend very much money and that isn't necessarily what some people at least who are prepared to think about voting for reform would like so there is a mismatch there and if you look for example at one of the other policies they produced this summer which is about taking away

[00:21:11] people's personal independent payments the payments made to people with disabilities that is going to affect quite a lot of reform voters if they look quite closely and again that's something that I think the Labour party will be able to hammer reform with if they keep going with that particular policy so there is a mispray I can hammer them with the national health service as well because I mean what are they going to do to try and solve that problem I mean Labour's put a lot of money into it I mean Farage basically wants

[00:21:41] to semi privatize it all doesn't he Well I think Farage can argue that there is a long term structural problem with the NHS and perhaps we ought to think about insurance funding compulsory insurance I

[00:22:14] and yeah it's quite easy I mean you would have thought saying well actually if can afford to pay to go and see a doctor if you should pay the gap I mean surely that's an easy for Labour to say Yeah I mean you would think there would be more support for that

[00:22:44] it's very difficult to extend what would otherwise as you say be quite a popular argument into the realm of healthcare it just seems that people are used to free at the point of need and do not want to sacrifice that principle for anything So what happens now if we look to where the right goes in the next well let's assume two to three years before the next election do you I mean for example we mentioned restore briefly why have they got such a hold on this situation because they are

[00:23:14] a tiny group of people but they seem to have a vastly outsized influence on what's going and therefore are listening to a lot of the stuff that is pumped out on X and Facebook and it's keeping them well to the

[00:23:44] right sometimes of even Nigel Farage so I think that does make a difference and I think obviously then there is this ripple effect whereby it becomes popular for voters on the far right they begin to buy the idea promoted by Elon Musk and Rupert Lowe isn't as hard line as he should be that takes some voters from reform to restore Britain that panics some people in reform who

[00:24:14] start trying to actually toughen up their policies in order to match what restore Britain are saying and therefore the centre of gravity begins to move even further in a right direction and of course there is also the possibility that will influence what the Conservative party say so reform politicians are going to start moving to the restore party it's sort of like a two step approach so the Tories will move to reform the reform will move to restore and

[00:24:43] you know it could happen it could happen I mean what's been interesting I think coming back to the wider right is that Kemi Bay does seem to have stemmed the flow of Conservative MPs moving to reform at least and I think that was a real concern that more Conservative MPs would follow Rob Jenrick would follow Sue Le Braverman and the three or four others who have gone in

[00:25:13] that direction that doesn't seem to have happened and if you look at some of the ambitious right wingers within the Conservative party so people like Jack Rankin people like Katie Lamb for example it seems to me pretty clear that they've decided that they're going to stick with the Conservatives and they're not going to have anything to do with form and

[00:25:51] the David Cameron Tory surely they should stay there shouldn't they surely they should stay I mean that's the opportunity if you get the right of politics moving further and further to the right it would be sensible for them to say oh by the way there's still grownups here wouldn't that be the best position for them I think in a way that that is Kemi Badenock strategy although she is tempted herself on these cultural war issues to move in that direction I think she does probably understand that she does have to

[00:26:44] who is their leader in Scotland David Gawkes involved David Liddington a whole bunch of one nation conservatives who feel that an argument has to be had within the Conservative Party in order to

[00:27:15] to that that won't happen that it's not a party it's a movement it's up for having an argument I think however Badenock's reaction has been interesting instead of welcoming that contribution and saying the Conservative Party has always been a big tent broad church etc she has shown absolutely no interest and actually been quite cutting about Prosper UK there's already been all sorts of stories in the

[00:27:45] media about former Conservative MPs not being allowed to stand next time around partly because of their association with previous government but also because some of them still believe in progress to net zero some of them are still quite concerned about leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and those are two things that seem to have been set up by some test of faith for the Conservatives and that is a recipe for turning a broad church into a

[00:28:15] sect and that is something that she doesn't want to do because in actually it'll lose too many people on the other flank unless of course and this I guess is her argument that Labour makes a mess of the economy that in the end even socially liberal Tories will hold their nose as they did to some extent Theresa May and definitely Boris Johnson and still vote Conservative

[00:28:45] because they regard Labour as a semi socialist failure and they will get blamed of course because the economy will struggle because we will see inflation continuing to hold possibly to rise again and there will be the argument oh that's because the government spends too much it's just ignoring the fact that there does seem to be a slight shortage of

[00:29:22] and Liz trust in particular so Labour may well still be able to argue that even if the economy isn't going gangbusters by the time they call an election and obviously they're hoping it will improve over time they will be able to say look we made a start it's not perfect but don't let the other guys in because remember what they did last time and that historically has been a pretty effective argument for both parties but isn't that really what Nigel Farage is arguing yeah I guess

[00:29:52] so but Nigel Farage isn't actually arguing for big investment style economy he's not any kind I just wondering what they think is the answer what is it he's going to provide for them other than stopping the boat well I

[00:30:44] the sense argument a lot of people to sell to isn't it well but you can't ride that immigration horse forever can you essentially I mean it's the figures as you say are in fact going the opposite direction right now suggesting things are better now question upon what point that actually filters through and people believe it but this has been a horse that reformers have been riding almost the only horse

[00:31:14] for a very long time can they just keep going with that to the next election and triumph on that basis well I think with migration I mean I think you know you

[00:31:45] have have have have to have more successful economy so there are other arguments restore isn't just about migration it is about anti woke and it is about anti net zero as well but

[00:32:37] I started and yet so does Andy Burnham and the Labour Party avoid talking about Europe or the idea of getting back into bed with Europe because that would just swing back in favour of reform or to think people I think that's the risk that many Labour people will talk up I'm not so sure that it is the case given that most of the people who have deserted Labour over the long term are gone for good

[00:33:07] and given that they need to think about getting people who are tempted by the Greens perhaps tempted by the Liberal Democrats perhaps tempted by the nationalist parties to think about voting Labour again those people are fairly convinced pro-Europeans it might be actually a better idea for Labour to grasp that particular nettle it strikes me that Burnham is just the same as Keir Starmer in that respect and treats it as a bit of a third rail so Tim as we

[00:33:37] bring this to a conclusion and we look forward towards the next election which may be two three years away what do you see in terms of the right going into that is it some kind of merger coalition arrangement between reform and the Tories would restore a figure anywhere in it what offering is the right likely to

[00:34:16] the reform and vice versa I think the problem is if the polls stay anything like they are at the moment then that would mean an awful lot of conservative MPs let alone candidates actually standing down in favour of reform candidates and completely

[00:34:46] possible we've heard can we not rule that out and Nigel Farage has ruled that out but I cannot believe that if you put the numbers that the conservatives might get after the next election and it's into 330 I cannot believe that they won't do some kind of deal at that point as far as going into the election is concerned I think we are probably a long way from it if we believe Andy Burnham

[00:35:16] and there's no love lost between the parties reform and the conservatives I think restore Britain maybe is a bit of a flash in the pan but we'll have to see I don't think they're going to coordinate their policies and I think on those cultural issues there is going to still be some sort of outbidding between the parties but I do think coming back to something you said I think the conservatives probably will run we're the grown ups actually we have got an economic

[00:35:46] policy you will somehow get together so will Nigel Farage ever be prime minister I am just starting to wonder whether my move to Australia was a bit premature I

[00:36:15] got my doubts I might not be standing at the lectern with a pint of beer in his hand and a cigarette wouldn't yeah stranger things happen

[00:36:45] indeed and recently too Tim thank you so much for being with us we'll see what happens and I'm sure we'll call on you again thanks for being here thanks a lot now next week on the podcast we've just had Donald Trump of course has he officially renamed has he done his royal decree well yes his version of it and said yes he's going to call Lake Ontario Lake America for now I think he signed the documents or says he has but who

[00:37:15] on still call it the white I'm afraid but there was somebody I saw who had actually Googled Lake Ontario sorry Lake America and on Google Maps and it came up with

[00:37:45] Lake Ontario so Google aren't you already they've already kowtowed to the president well apparently if you're in America and you look up Gulf of Mexico it comes up with Gulf of America if you just do if you're outside like I did the other day it comes up as Gulf of Mexico brackets Gulf of America so they have to go where the power is I

[00:38:29] happen next so for a bit of fun we're going to look at how places change their names and why and what's the consequences and will that all be on podcast hearing next week and we can have some suggestions as well we will see you next week on the Y curve we'll see you then thanks for listening the Y curve