Cuba Revisited

[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing. A rough, fragile, painful peace in the Gulf. So will Donald Trump now turn for better headlines to a place much nearer home? We know Cuba is in his sights. And the economic blockade is starving Cubans of food and energy. Is this the moment 66 years of confrontation ends? Is Cuba about to join Venezuela as a Trump colony?

[00:00:24] And the most important thing, what do hungry, poverty-stricken, politically repressed Cubans actually want? The Why Curve. Well, they probably want to be able to eat, don't they? Yes, and turn the lights on, that kind of thing, and the air conditioning, I imagine. But if you create a situation, it's almost like Stockholm Syndrome, isn't it? If you're oppressed to create a situation through sanctions that people want to get out of

[00:00:50] and they realise the only way to lift those sanctions is to be taken over by the country that's imposing those sanctions, then I guess you'll take that as the only option that you've got. Well, maybe, and I think, I mean, the thing is, Cubans have been used to confronting the US for a very long time. And, I mean, you imagine all the propaganda over the years is not going to make them welcome the prospect of the US running them. And they've seen what happens in Venezuela where, you know, basically Donald Trump just pockets all the money anyway.

[00:01:19] Well, this time, you know, there's no motive, is there? There's no financial motive. I mean, what's he going to get out of Cuba apart from, you know, maybe a few cigars or whatever? I'm not really quite sure what Cuba exports that he's going to make money for. Sugar, I think, but not a lot of it. I mean, I think probably... No, no, indeed. And I think the thing is what he's going to get out of it probably is votes because the American-Cuban, Cuban-American vote is enormous

[00:01:45] and most of them are very anti the regime in Cuba. So, yeah, maybe, you know, come the midterms which are coming up, you know, if he can, you know, certainly places like Florida might well go, oh, well, yeah, we'll have some of that and support him. So he'll do it as a vote winner because, of course, he's now saying, now he's on this whole peace train, that he's going to solve the situation in Ukraine as his next big job. So maybe Ukraine's going to... Maybe Cuba's going to take a back seat. No, no, no, no. I think Cuba is doable, potentially. This is the big thing. Yeah.

[00:02:14] In a way that none of the others really are because they are so much on their knees and they're not a, you know, not a big military power or anything. So, I mean, it wouldn't actually be potentially that hard for him to just go in and say, right, OK, you know, we'll make you effectively a territory of the US under US control. We'll select a leader for you. We talked about this not so many weeks ago, but we've got an update this week, haven't we? Indeed. Because Joseph Gonzalez, you may remember, Associate Professor of Global Studies at Appalachian State University

[00:02:43] and a historian in the Cuban-American relationship. In fact, he's got a book coming out called Facing the Sun, Cuba's Challenge to America's Empire. He has actually just got back from Cuba. So hot off the press, as it were, we'll get a sense of what people there actually are thinking. Anyway, Joseph joins us now. So, Joe, tell us then what it is like. You know, you've spent a bit of time in Cuba now recently. So just how desperate is the situation on the ground? Well, the media reports, I can tell you, the media reports are accurate.

[00:03:11] It is, Cubans are struggling to meet the basic necessities of life. There's more food available than in previous crises, and we can certainly talk about that. But the electricity is intermittent, and without electricity, it's very hard to have a civilized society. Transportation, essentially public transportation, has disappeared from the streets. The hospitals are barely open and barely worthy of the name.

[00:03:39] Refrigeration, which is extremely important in the tropics, is very intermittent. If you're in Havana, you might be averaging a few hours of power a day. If you're outside of Havana, you might be averaging a few hours of power a week. So, Joe, what has brought it to this stage? Because if energy is essentially the central problem, why is it so much more of a problem now than it was? Yes. Well, that's a really good question. In 2026, earlier this year, President Trump imposed an oil blockade of Cuba.

[00:04:09] He essentially said, after taking Maduro in Venezuela, he essentially said, nobody can sell oil to Cuba anymore, ever. And Venezuela couldn't. The Russians were able to send a tanker, but they're the only ones. The oil that is entering Cuba is just a trickle. So that doesn't sound very legal to me. No, I don't think it's legal. And the Cubans protest.

[00:04:35] And the international community is often on the side of the Cubans when it comes to their relationship to the United States. But it really doesn't make any difference. Donald Trump isn't known for his respect for international law. And so the Cuban people now are saying, well, OK, faced with the situation, we'd rather the United States lifted that blockade and had more involvement in our country. I mean, there's a long history. I would imagine a lot of pride, local pride in the country, which would be preventing that from happening.

[00:05:05] Cubans are proud to be Cubans. At the same time, long story short, Cubans hate their government much more than they hate the United States. They are waiting for the United States to save them. This is something that I have seen over the last 30 years. I've been going to Cuba for almost exactly 30 years. It'll be 30 years in July since I made my first visit. When I first visited in 1996, at the end of the so-called special period,

[00:05:31] which was the last big economic crisis, they blamed the United States. Now they are blaming their government and they are looking for the United States to save them. So what that really means, they want to have a situation a bit like Venezuela, where effectively, you know, there's not much change apart from the fact that the Americans allow stuff in and the government continues as normal? I think actually the Cuban people, if they could,

[00:05:57] that one of my Cuban, one Cuban I spoke to said that he would like to take the entire Cuban elite, the political elite that they believe with good reason, they've been ripping off the country for decades. He'd like to take them all to the island of youth, the Isla de Juventud, dump them all there with some tools and a loaf of bread and let them suffer. They hate their elite and they would like to see them all gone.

[00:06:25] They regard them as parasites, as worms and as people who do not care about their suffering. So there's a lot of national pride, but Cubans didn't elect this government. This is a dictatorship more or less imposed on them. They don't see this government as having their best interests at heart at all. So elite island sounds like a fantastic reality TV show. It's an island of youth, but where they actually get youth. I mean, maybe it's the island of eternal youth. I know, but if they could sell the rights to that around the world,

[00:06:55] then watch the Cuban elite suffering as a result of it all. That would be a good thing. But I mean, is the expectation then that, or the hope, the great wide hope, that the United States will come overthrow the government and they will be able to form some form of democracy and the elite will have, I'm not quite sure how you get rid of the elite. Because they, I mean, they're not going to fight, are they? But they're not going to go down easily. Absolutely. I think the Cubans hope that the pressure will be so intense

[00:07:23] that the Cuban government has to compromise. The United States government, it appears, if we can believe media reports, the United States government wants certain Castros to leave. They want the president of Cuba to go into exile. They want some scalps. They want some Cubans to be visibly removed from either the government or from the island of Cuba. That would certainly please a lot of Cuban Americans in South Florida.

[00:07:52] It would also please some Cubans. And of course, the Cubans believe that if that happens, part of the embargo, at least for oil, will disappear. And maybe Americans will be open to more equitable trading relationships and their lives will get better. Basically, Cubans are for anything that gives them reliable electricity right now. They don't even have that. Yeah, but Joe, we know how this game works because we've seen it in Venezuela.

[00:08:20] They go in and they take out the top man, as you say, maybe the top five, the top 10 potentially. But then everything else is left as it was. I mean, isn't that the most likely outcome? I think you're right. Certainly the Cuban government, the elite of the Cuban government, they're negotiating with the United States and stalling to see if they can get a better deal. They don't want to give up their privileges and their access to resources.

[00:08:46] The Cuban people believe, oh, the elite in the Cuban government, they're trying to preserve themselves. They don't care about us. Now, what will the United States do? Well, Venezuela seems to offer a guide. But the problem is that the elite of Cuba doesn't want to lose face. They seem to be stuck at something of an impasse. And it does appear that more U.S. pressure is going to be applied. Who don't they want to lose face to?

[00:09:15] Who are they trying to impress? I mean, yeah, the Cuban people. But the Cuban people don't want them. So, you know, it's that don't impress me much in the words of Shania Twain. Yeah, it's a kind of paradox trying to not lose face in front of their own people. From what you say, their own people absolutely loathe them. Yeah, they absolutely, they're disgusted by them and they do loathe them. The problem is that this regime has been telling people that we, we, the government of Cuba,

[00:09:43] we are the only thing standing between you and Yankee imperialism. That lie, that myth has been central to the existence of this regime. They're afraid of losing face in front of the world and in front of their own people and in caving into the Americans. Now, it's possible that some Castros will be able to stay, some will have to leave, the president will have to step down, and the dictatorship will continue in a way. That's possible.

[00:10:13] But that hasn't happened yet, and the pressure is really intense. But if the outcome, you know, the ideal outcome is that the sanctions are lifted, so oil starts to arrive, power can be generated, and there's a democracy put into place, that democracy almost certainly would have those trading links to the United States. That would mean American companies would see there's an opportunity in Cuba to invest. Isn't that the sort of imperialism that everybody's be fearful of?

[00:10:40] I mean, you know, it may be the right way, but it is not what people have been seeing as the future for their country. I think that Cubans themselves would be more than happy to have that kind of U.S. imperialism in Cuba right now. I think they would be more than happy to. So when they're told that be wary of American imperialism, what are they talking about? That America might invade or take more control than just open trade?

[00:11:05] They certainly don't want an invasion, and they certainly don't want more misery, and they'd like to have oil and electricity. With the Cubans I spoke to, and I spent several days just wandering around, just asking Cubans to talk to me about what they wanted and what they thought was going on. The Cubans themselves would like to see more targeted pressure at the elites. Now, I don't know how you do that, and I'm not sure they know either, but they know they're suffering, and they believe their government simply does not care, and they're okay.

[00:11:34] If the Americans come in and somehow order things, they're okay with that because they see it as an improvement in their lives. But, Joe, isn't what's likely to happen, it's not so much necessarily, you know, Americans coming in in that way, except Cuban Americans, I mean, a large number of people who lost everything under the Castro regime and fled to Miami, they're the ones who want to come back and take it back over again. Would that appeal to people? I mean, that means some people get, you know, chucked out of their homes, chucked out of their businesses.

[00:12:03] I don't know that that's going to happen in the short term, being chucked out of their businesses or their homes. I do know that Cubans, again, because their situation is so miserable, anything will help. The Cubans themselves are willing to have Cuban Americans from South Florida come and invest, invest in hotels, invest in golf courses, invest in the tourist infrastructure. They're okay with that because they also believe that that means the Americans will ease the embargo.

[00:12:31] Again, their situation is so desperate, they're happy for almost any change. So, describe a bit more about the situation then. You said they're okay for food, that power supplies and transport are, well, the public transport is non-existent and the power is on and off. But food's okay. Yeah, well, why is food okay? Because that seems a strange thing, Joe. Yeah, that's a very important distinction between this crisis and other crises.

[00:12:57] There are a lot of private entrepreneurs in Cuba who are keeping the country resupplied with foodstuffs. And they send people abroad, they go abroad, they import stuff back into Cuba and they sell it in private stores. The Cuban government has this system called the Libreta, which is a public rationing system. It used to be effective, now it's intermittent and highly ineffective.

[00:13:26] Sometimes they give out some rice and beans, sometimes nothing at all. But in the private stores, they're well stocked, but the food is expensive by Cuban standards. So, there's a lot of food, but it's expensive and it's very hard to keep because of the lack of refrigeration and freezing. So, what's it like when you actually look in the streets? I mean, you've wandered the streets of Havana, you've seen what it's like.

[00:13:50] I mean, are people working? Because surely if you work and you earn money and it's basically worthless, what's the point? How on earth does normal life go on? People are working. They're often trying to, they're trying to maintain value almost by the day. The inflation is bad. I read a report that inflation in Cuba is, in terms of its severity, in the top five in the world right now. So, the inflation rate, the peso declined in value while I was there and I was just there six days.

[00:14:18] So, what are they doing? They're hustling for money. Now, if they can get dollars, great. If they can get euros, great. If all they can do is get more Cuban pesos, okay. They'll try and trade them into dollars. There are certain sectors of the economy where people tend to be doing much better than others. For example, I have a friend who's a mechanic. He's never out of work. A mechanic is much in demand in Cuba because you can't buy anything new.

[00:14:46] So, he's making a lot of money, which then he tries to convert into dollars whenever he can. So, there are Cubans that are working. Are they working at their state jobs? Probably not, or at least as little as possible. They're probably hustling on the side to sell things, to buy things, to import things. Every Cuban I know has a second job. And what about the police? Because this is a police state. This is a very controlled place in the normal course of events.

[00:15:12] But you imagine if the security forces aren't really being paid either, then how does it all work? Well, they are being paid, but the police presence in Cuba, at least in Havana, is much less significant than it used to be. They used to be prevalent. I've never been hassled by the Cuban police. Cuba's not like North Korea. I've never had a minder. But there has always been a pretty significant police presence. There are fewer police on the streets. Why?

[00:15:40] First of all, police officers are resigning and leaving the job because they are being hassled by other Cubans. They are being hassled for being agents of the state and agents of oppression. Cops don't like that. There are websites, I am told, where Cubans call out more senior officials and give names and addresses and phone numbers of people who they believe are part of the repressive apparatus.

[00:16:07] So being a cop isn't the job that it used to be. People seem to be leaving the force. What is more, the regime is very concerned about protests. There are more and more protests. One protest erupted while I was there and the cops have to be ready to respond to these protests quickly and with overwhelming force. So the police presence is not what it used to be. So is violence an issue then? Because, I mean, in many parts of the world, given these circumstances, there would be violence

[00:16:36] would just become a natural part of life as people are trying to get what they can from everybody else. And also, obviously, yes, you know, fighting against the state. Yeah. Crime is definitely up. It was up. It's been increasing as I have been going there. It's up now. People tell me, don't go on the street at night. Don't take your iPhone. You might get ripped off. If I traveled at night, I only traveled with Cubans who were friends of friends in cars.

[00:17:04] So I was much more careful than I normally have been. Social cohesion in Cuba is really breaking down. The Cubans used to really trust each other 30 years ago. They thought they were all in this together. They no longer feel that way. They feel their government doesn't like them. And they also see that there are some people who are doing really well. There are more private cars on the roads in Cuba. Big trucks with tinted windows and license plates that say this is a private car.

[00:17:33] And somehow they're getting gasoline. So Cubans see that there are people who are profiting from this crisis. That does a lot of damage to social media. So how are they doing that? Is that those people are doing really well? Is it because they're doing stuff for the government? They're importing stuff. They're involved in import. Or they could be attached to some sort of elite that has access to resources that are controlled by these big state enterprises like GAESA,

[00:18:03] which is a huge conglomerate controlled by the Cuban military. So they may have access there or they may just simply be involved in import and export. They're the ones who are keeping the island supplied right now. And they're not getting taxed. I mean, normally you go, well, OK, if you are making so much money, you would be taxed. And that tax would then be used for redistribution. That's clearly not happening. There are taxes. I don't know that they pay them. Maybe they do.

[00:18:28] Maybe they pay an informal tax in terms of bribing officials and cutting people in on the action. I do have a friend who has a store. And she's constantly being hassled by bureaucrats for what they call taxes or impuestos, but are really just bribes. Gosh. I mean, when I remember when I've been to Havana quite a few times, Joe, one of the things that impressed me was they have these committees, party committees, communist party committees. Yeah. And sort of every building and every street and they monitor what everyone's doing.

[00:18:58] And it's a means of social control. Has that gone as well? Yeah, that's pretty much gone. You really good luck trying to find a communist. They just don't exist anymore. Certainly no one under the age of 70. Everybody talks about capitalism, making money. We need to change. People are very favorable toward the United States. This has been growing for decades. The old party apparatus like the CDRs or committees for the defense of the revolution. Those just don't have the impact anymore.

[00:19:25] That's they're almost like social clubs for very old Cubans who remember the better days. So this is just a massive opportunity for Donald Trump. It's everything he loves, isn't it? It's something that he can fix that will make him look good. More to the point, it's a massive real estate opportunity for him. Absolutely. I think the Cubans or at least the Cuban people would be they'd be OK with renaming their country Trumplandia if it meant that they would have electricity. Yeah. Don't put that idea in his mind. That's probably true.

[00:19:55] Probably I shouldn't do that. But yes, there is. I mean, Roger, you have been to Cuba? I've been to Cuba quite a few times. Yeah. See, I'd love to. I mean, there's a lot going for it. I would love it. I don't know too much about the place. I imagine it's very beautiful. But I love Cuban music. I'd go there for the music scene. The food, the music. I have to say that the beaches are fantastic as well. I guess that's the last thing that people think about now. And it is a country that has an identity that lots of people want to. It's just it's got to be a safe place and there's got to be comfortable places to stay.

[00:20:26] Precisely. And you have seen this, Roger, and you will see it, Phil, someday when you go there, that there is a lot of real estate to be developed. There's a lot of underdeveloped, underutilized land. There are resorts that are just at a fraction of their potential. So, yes, for Miami Cubans, Cuban Americans, and for Donald Trump, you're right. This is like a blank slate.

[00:20:51] And also, of course, Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, is himself Cuban American. I mean, it kind of plays to all those strengths. Precisely. And while they want American help, they hate Rubio. Why is that? They believe, the people I talk to, they believe that Rubio is really the agent of their misery.

[00:21:10] They believe that Rubio subscribed to this idea of make all Cuba suffer and somehow the Cubans will overthrow this government or the state will collapse. Neither one of those has happened. It hasn't happened for almost 70 years. So they really do hate that idea that a lot of Americans have, that Rubio has, that South Florida Cubans have, of let's make Cubans suffer and somehow the regime will collapse. It hasn't happened.

[00:21:39] And they hate it. Yeah. But I mean, that is the Trump model, isn't it? And, you know, he was surprised when it didn't happen in Iran. He's perhaps surprised it didn't happen in Cuba. But if people are so against the, you know, the old guard, why aren't there rights in the streets? Why aren't there? Why isn't there a revolution, basically? Well, that's a really good question. First of all, there is increased disorder and protest.

[00:22:07] There is, for example, before I went there in the spring, in a small town, a Communist Party headquarters was attacked and burned. And the police are fearful. There's definitely more protest and more dissent. The Internet makes it possible. What do they lack? They lack guns. Now, I'm not advocating that we send guns to Cuba. I am not advocating that at all. I don't want more violence in Cuba. But the state has a monopoly on force.

[00:22:36] The Cuban people don't have that. So, frankly, what's going to have to happen if the Cubans are going to overthrow the government, some part of the state has to crack. The state has to crack. The elite has to decide, like some general somewhere who's got access to guns, has to decide, I'm going to overthrow these guys. Without weapons, it just can't happen. And Cubans don't have weapons. Do you think that will happen? Do you think some kind of coup, officer's coup, is a likely way out?

[00:23:03] I don't think so right now because all of these very senior officers and generals, they are all benefiting from the same system. They profit from this network of quasi-private public entities that touch much of what is profitable in Cuba. So they're okay. They've got houses with solar-powered generators. They've got access to fuel. They're doing okay. They are dependent on that system.

[00:23:32] So I don't see that happening right now. But, of course, I don't know what's going on behind the scenes. There could be some disgruntled general who thinks, hey, I can just cut myself in on a much better deal. But do you think more likely it's going to be some kind of negotiated way out of this with some deal done with Washington, essentially? It would certainly not surprise me, but I'm a little surprised that things are so stalemated.

[00:23:53] It does seem that American pressure has brought more misery to the Cuban people, but it's not bringing a resolution to this crisis. It appears the Cuban government is just dug in and they don't want to concede anything unless they have to. We are at an impasse and I think we're at an inflection point where something's going to have to happen soon. I just don't know what it's going to be. Well, is it just that America's got too much on its hands? And so this has been going on in the background. It just hasn't had the bandwidth to deal with it.

[00:24:23] Well, that's it. Yeah, there is a war in Iran, which is over and then not over. And then there's a ceasefire and then it's not over. I think it's going to go on quite possibly for the rest of President Trump's term. And of course, he's got it's his birthday and he had ultimate fighting championships on those White House lawn. The guys, he's got a crowded calendar. And now he's saying he's going to sort out Ukraine once and all. You know, that's his next thing. So Cuba's ticked down the list again a bit further. Yeah. Thank God. Yeah. Thank God.

[00:24:51] I mean, Ukrainians should be so lucky. But forgive me, Joe, we've seen this movie before. If we go back, I mean, 1899, unpopular authorities in Cuba, America putting pressure on America liberates Cuba. Yeah. And it all goes horribly wrong afterwards. I mean, we've been here, haven't we? Yeah, that's absolutely. And as a historian who's like me and everybody else who's a historian in the United States, a historian of Cuba,

[00:25:19] we've all spent a lot of time writing about the American empire and how bad it's been for Latin America and for Cuba specifically. It's really sobering to hear Cubans say hour after hour, day after day, the Americans have to save us. The Americans have to save us. We know what it looks like when the Americans step in to save you. It means it means being part of an American empire. It means losing a lot of your independence. It appears to mean crime, corruption, disorganization. It was not a happy show. And that's what brought about the Cuban revolution.

[00:25:49] So is history repeating itself then effectively? Because literally in 1898, you'd have heard Cubans say the Americans, please come and save us. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. There are definitely shadows of a repetition going on. But if you were the part of that ruling regime and you were having an okay life yourself, but you saw disarray around you, and then you mentioned that whole thing about saving face. They're obviously slightly deluded that they're still loved.

[00:26:18] Or you almost need someone to knock on the door and say, by the way, the people don't like you very much. And this situation is not going to continue forever. I mean, they must be looking at the sustainability of what they've got now and thinking to themselves, well, something's going to change here. That's a good question. I don't have any sources in the Cuban government, so I don't know. I think they are hoping that somehow Trump is going to lose interest. He's not because Marco Rubio is not going to lose interest.

[00:26:45] And also there's this case, isn't there, against the oldest Castro left. There's actually a murder case against him in the US. Is that right? Yeah, my understanding, yes. Yes, absolutely. Raul Castro. He has been indicted for an incident that took place in 1996 with Brothers to the Rescue. So that's a signal. The United States keeps ratcheting up the pressure. There's also MasterCard and Visa no longer are processing transactions in Cuba for European banks.

[00:27:16] European companies are pulling out of the tourist industry in Cuba. So the pressure keeps building, which is why I think we're at an inflection point. I think the elite is trying to stall for time. That's what it seems like they're doing. I don't think they're going to get out of this. Stalling for time for what, though? I mean, just to continue their life as it is. I think so. Yeah.

[00:27:37] To get the best deal they can from the United States, perhaps, or hoping the United States will lose interest, or hoping that they'll be able to hold out for a couple more years until there's another election. I don't know what they're stalling for, but they're certainly not willing to make a deal on American terms right now. But what about the people in Miami? Because, Joe, we've talked about the Cuban Americans, very keen to get back.

[00:28:02] And again, if we're talking about history repeating itself, Bay of Picks, you know, some kind of invasion by them. They have guns, for heaven's sakes. They do. They do. I think what they want to come is they want to come and buy everything. They don't want anything violent. They wouldn't want to destroy the property that they want to own.

[00:28:18] And the Cuban government is right now, just in the last couple of days, President Diaz-Canel has announced a series of legal reforms that will permit South Florida Cubans to invest in Cuba. That's a big deal. And I think that they're hoping that appeases the United States. Who knows? But are they going to do it? They're not going to do it while there's no power. Help the Cubans. I obviously, I don't have access to the highest reaches of the Cuban government.

[00:28:48] I kind of wish I did. But it would appear that the government is trying to legalize investment and hoping that somehow the South Florida Cubans will then be an agent for them. That they will say, hey, we need oil if we're going to invest. Hey, we need the U.S. off our, we need the U.S. off the backs of Cuba in order to invest and build the kind of infrastructure we need. Maybe that's something that they are thinking. Stranger things have happened.

[00:29:16] But the South Florida Cubans, they hate this government. They want to see it gone. But they also want to invest. I mean, that might be a way forward because I suppose you could say, you know, Donald Trump might want their votes in the upcoming midterms too. So it's a good deal for everybody. But investing in an unstable country doesn't say, well, there's so many places in the world you can invest, aren't there? Why would you do that even if it's close to home for you? But if the ultimate is that the regime has to go, can they still live on the island?

[00:29:44] Or do they actually have to be out of mind and out of sight for it to work? Well, it appears the United States is demanding that some Cubans have to go. For example, the president and maybe some of the Castros. That appeared some of them have to go. But there has been no agreement reached. But to go as in go to jail and, you know, turn up in like the form of a Zawelan president in a courtroom or just to go as in go off to Saudi Arabia? It could be going to exile.

[00:30:11] Or it could be that they've got to hand somebody over to the United States for prosecution like Raul Castro. Maybe a bedroom at Key Largo would suffice. I mean, it's a beautiful solution, actually, in a way. Mar-a-Lago. Key Largo would be a different film, but you're close. Sorry, Mar-a-largo. Key Largo is a film. Yeah, one of those small islands might be a good option, I suppose.

[00:30:35] But if they're staying with Trump in a Trump residence where, you know, they're paying to eat in his restaurants and everything, then everyone wins. Well, that's one of stranger things have happened in this world. Who knows? It's true. And as we kind of go towards the end of this, Joe, let me just get a sense from you. You've seen it right up close. Can this just go on for a long time? Are we going to see months, maybe years more of this situation being like it is now?

[00:31:03] Or are we, you know, have we reached an inflection point where something actually is going to give and pretty soon? I think, and again, maybe you'll have me on and I'll talk about why I was wrong. But it feels to me, as you suggest, Roger, that we're at an inflection point. U.S. pressure is just going to keep building and building and building. And the misery and anger of the Cubans just keeps going higher and higher and higher. It would seem there has to be some resolution to this crisis.

[00:31:31] And it has to come at some point relatively soon. We can't go on like this for years. But of course, the embargo has gone on for almost 70 years. So maybe this is the new normal. I can't see that. I can't see that happening. But it is possible. I still, if I had to place a bet right now, I would say U.S. pressure increasing, Cuban anger increasing, and we're at an inflection point. Something has to happen. But that Cuban anger is invisible to most of the world, isn't it?

[00:32:00] And Donald Trump, I don't know, when he last mentioned Cuba, it seems like a long time ago. That's true. That's true. I think you have to go there and you have to listen to Cubans to find out just how angry they are and they are at their own government. I was even surprised by how angry they are. I wasn't surprised that they were angry about the oil embargo. But I was even surprised at the level of anger. They've given up on this government. Well, Joe, we've got actually, you know, he isn't listening. They aren't listening. But you have been listening and we've heard a lot of that. So thanks very much.

[00:32:28] It's really good to get that kind of first person reaction to what's going on. Yeah, that's how it all gets sorted out. Thanks, Joe. Thanks very much for having me. It's been a real pleasure coming in and talking with you all about Cuba. Thanks a lot. It does seem like, you know, the answer is obvious, doesn't it? The question is, can they get there? That's the question. And how keen is Donald Trump going to be? Anyway, we'll watch that space. Yes, we will indeed. Meanwhile, things are going to move much quicker in the UK, aren't they?

[00:32:54] With a make-a-feel by-election and we don't know the results of that. Not as we speak right now, we don't. It could be a by-election to determine the next Prime Minister for the UK. Well, that's what we think it might well be. And we will find out what the implications of that are. Changing Prime Ministers, starting leadership elections, but perhaps also seeing a bit of a setback for Reform UK. I mean, we shouldn't predict at this point, but whatever happens, we will analyze it.

[00:33:18] Yeah, well, they are getting chipped away, aren't they, by competing parties trying to claim the same space, which is the way it often happens. Oh, yes. You know, you're far right. We can go further to the right than you. And make ourselves totally unelectable. But let's see if that happens. Yeah, we'll see if that happens. And just very quickly before we go then. So the whole make-a-field thing. I mean, your knowledge of UK history. Has this happened before where there's been a by-election to try and pick someone who is being picked, basically, plump picked to be parachuted in to become the next Prime Minister?

[00:33:48] It seems quite a unique situation. I wouldn't claim to know of any example of that. But, I mean, I think the idea which seems to drive people, oh, you know, you can't have a new Prime Minister foisted on you without a new election. I mean, that's not the way our system works. We are not, in that sense, you know, a presidential democracy. We are a parliamentary one. And we work that way. But, anyway, people won't believe it. Well, I mean, this is saying it's a presidential. The fact that the person at the top is determining how successful the party is going to be is a presidential approach, isn't it? Well, it is.

[00:34:17] With an election to put a president, you know, in a way. Anyway, we'll talk about all of that next week. It's an interesting situation. All of that next week on The Y Curve. Bye. We'll see you then. The Y Curve.