Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
[00:00:00] The Y curve with Phil Dobby and Roger hearing.
[00:00:03] It's one of the most important years in modern British politics.
[00:00:07] Rishi Sunak faces electoral meltdown.
[00:00:10] Labour seems set to take up the reins.
[00:00:12] The SMP could have power rested from it in Scotland for the first time in 17 years.
[00:00:17] But none of this is certain.
[00:00:20] So how will the landscape change?
[00:00:22] And what will happen with the key issues, the cost of living,
[00:00:24] failing public services, migration, I mean, there's several things going on in the background. I mean, it's not just the economy. Obviously, geopolitics could play a lot. Could make a big difference. We just worked from Agothatia, didn't it? You know, all we need is someone to invade a British colony, and it's on for everybody. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Get the fleet out and win the next election. It could be for... Yeah. It could be a very interesting year, essentially, in politics,
[00:01:42] and we may not come out with what we expect.
[00:01:44] But let's get a sense of what people who study this are thinking. all sorts of ways of combating that. He was going to be the change, then he was going to be stability, then he was going to be the change again. I think that lack of any consistent message, plus the fact that clearly he's failing to deliver on at least three or four of his by-promises. The inflational thing isn't exactly in his control, is it?
[00:03:01] No, and that's the one he's been celebrating. But I think most people, although they're not
[00:03:04] particularly well up on the wise and we're when you consider, actually, that the Conservative Party has been in trouble really since 2010 when it comes to immigration by over-promising and under-delivering. It would seem like they were making the same mistake again and
[00:04:20] again and again.
[00:04:21] It's taken out of the Australian copy book on how to win elections, tightening, as you were suggesting earlier. I think if you look at historical precedent, it's very unusual for a government to call an election, which they're almost certainly going to lose. I would have thought the story that we've been telling really for the last few months, i.e. the government will just wait for as long as possible for something to turn up is probably
[00:05:41] still the story. In other words, it'll be in October or November election.
[00:05:45] So they're just trying to minimise the still talking in the order, even if they win some seats and they didn't expect to win, for example, in Scotland of over 10% at least. And that is a big ask. And there are plenty of conservative sitting on massive majorities which might be vulnerable,
[00:07:01] perhaps, to buy elections, but probably in a general election aren't that vulnerable. Johnson was on the backbenches having resigned from trees in May's government who could take over and pull them out of the nose dive in the same way that he did in 2019. So I think it's probably still riskier bust for most of them, time around for them to quote unquote come to their senses just as it did after 1997. In fact, it took three elections at that point before they realized that something had to change. I think you have to look at what's happened to the
[00:09:44] Conservative Party since Brexit and say that they voters who delivered the Conservative majority in 2019 are gradually, if you like, dropping off the end of the electorate and being replaced by people who don't really share their values.
[00:11:03] It is a bit of an echo chain, isn't it limited say in what happens. So they can only decide the final two that goes to the membership. So if someone from the populist radical right side of the party like can we bay not can get through to the membership, he's not actually in line with that, is he, in terms of what he's proposing? No, that's quite right. And this comes back, perhaps, to the bubble we're talking about. When we're talking about the Conservative Party, I mean, any rational person looking at that would be saying to Rishi Sinak, you know, you've got to get over your message on the economy. Whatever you do, you've got to do something about NHS waiting lists and waiting times.
[00:13:43] And yet the government is still holding out of the Conservative Party. And the more significant factor was the amount of votes it seems that the Reform Party, which is TICE, obviously, and Farridge, is going to pull. Is this actually going to be a threat to the Tories itself? Yeah, isn't it just the same old same old worried about Farridge and immigration seems
[00:15:02] to be the way we can win some of his votes back?
[00:15:05] Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot to. And I think you're right, that to some extent is helping drive this obsession with Rwanda and with immigration on top of the fact that I think it's also to some extent
[00:16:21] a bit of a displacement activity in the sense that they feel that they are a bit powerless
[00:16:25] on the economy and they feel that they are a bit into the right. Well, I mean, I think it's reassuring, it's reassuring, it's reassuring. I mean, I think, you know, they look back at 1992, for example, they look back, I think, at 2015, and really just don't want to do anything that scares the horses. And I guess the question really
[00:17:41] is what Labour is saying right now about what it wants to't imagine they would have to do. And therefore, they had to spend more public services that they could. Yes, I mean, if you look at debt, US debt to GDP is about 129%. I mean, we're about 19. Yeah, they have got that little thing called the dollar though.
[00:19:00] So, it's very easy.
[00:19:01] It's about 113%. even competence and craving reassurance, then starma strategy probably is the better one. But as I say, the real question is whether actually it prefigures a Labour government that isn't really going to do very much that's different or whether actually it's simply a tactic or a strategy in order to make it into power and then do something rather more
[00:20:21] radical once they're there.
[00:20:22] Because I guess we've got a sort of that we could be on for a landslide victory. Watch out for those. I think they are worth looking at. I mean, of course, there'll be a lot of protest votes in those elections. So when's the budget?
[00:21:43] I should know this, of course.
[00:21:44] Well, it happens at a date, but I, which there is for labor. Historically, it was the worst result since 1930 something in 2019. But the fact that we
[00:23:00] haven't mentioned really is Scotland, because in Scotland, as I say, it will be the icing on the cake for Labour. It's not the cake itself. The cake itself is England, and obviously to some extent Wales as well. What would a Labour Party do? If we believe what is given in pledges, Kia Starmer's pledges back in 2020 for his leadership bid of the Labour Party,
[00:24:22] he said, economic justice, increasing income tax foriche, but to some extent it is a cliche because it's true. I mean, governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them. I mean, I think he couldn't necessarily go to the country on the manifesto that media might do to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party in the run up to the election. And we've already seen that this past year with regard to Keir Starmer's performance as a barrister defending various
[00:27:02] people that the tabloids love to hate. So I think there will be a
[00:27:05] lot of that time around. And I don't think Labour would actually want to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, but some sort of confidence and supply agreement, I'm sure, would be on the cards. I think the question then would be what exactly the Liberal Democrats would want out of that. And then we get the leader of the Conservative Party. You're breaking on these express read. Well, how in our hopes I think it's a useful litmus test for Tory voters, isn't it? And Farried is very popular with these people. Could we get to the stage where the Tory vote is so low that they do some sort of deal with
[00:29:41] the reform party?
[00:29:42] Like for example saying, well look, we another matter. Yeah. So he only made it to number three, didn't he? In the jungle? Which is bad enough. There's another jungle he's got in the other game. But as we look towards them, if you were... Project exactly a year forward, as it were, would you be as a betting man? Would you be reasonably confident that by that time,
[00:31:01] there will be a Labour government with Kierstam
[00:31:03] or as Prime Minister in number 10 at that point not wanting to frighten the horses. I think there is a concern on the part of some people that although they want to see progress to net zero and do have some appreciation of the benefits economically of doing that, that actually they don't want to pay the personal kind of household costs that might be involved in that. They want to have their cake and
[00:32:22] eat it too. And if you want to win an election, I think unfortunately you often have to do
[00:32:27] that rather than telling people like it is. and parties chances. Like it needs any more negatives. We'll see how that plays out. Thank you so much for taking us through what you think we might be seeing next year. This year, this year, this year, this year. This year. We'll hold you to it and we'll bring you back and see what your response is when it all
[00:33:43] happens.
[00:33:44] Happy New Year to all of you.
[00:33:46] It is going to be interesting.