The Final Furlong

[00:00:00] The Why Curve, with Phil Dobbie and Roger Herring. Well, we've learned a lot and one of the things we've learned is actually, well obviously she soon got very wet. And we thought he was going to be the wetest person during the whole campaign.

[00:00:44] But no, actually it went to the lip dance leader, didn't it? Who were all who were all who were? It has, it hasn't been a campaign of drenching because of course Nigel Farard's got covered in milk shake,

[00:00:54] famously. So no, it's very much a theme I think but also to extend the metaphor even further, I think, A Rishi is sinking in well something had no something liquid possibly. It's an in and sleaze and so you know it's everything has gone wrong,

[00:01:14] has it really for him if you look from the very beginning what could possibly go worse? And I look where they are now so Theresa down to 20% in the latest poll of polls from Politico.

[00:01:24] That's lower than when list trust was Prime Minister or Theresa May and Labour down to 42, which is actually the lowest interest you soon had became Prime Minister but still 42% was pretty high.

[00:01:38] And reform on 17% just three points behind the Conservatives that is the surprise result had all of this as the beginning. What it is and how that will will not translate into any kind of seats they might get.

[00:01:50] I don't forget we are a week away from voting much can change. We should always say that the only poll that counts as they will say is the one on the day itself.

[00:01:58] But no, it is looking pretty certain that things are not going to be good for the Conservatives. I think that's the one major conclusion that's pretty much indisputable.

[00:02:08] But shall we hear from someone whose job has been quite busy in the last five weeks and it's going to be busy for another week yet. I'm very glad we managed to get a hold of him.

[00:02:18] Robert Ford, Professor of Politics at the University of Manchester and the man who co-author the book Brexit land. So Rob, even though this is not an election about Brexit in fact Brexit has hardly been mentioned.

[00:02:30] I'm just wondering whether it really is the same issues that were bought on through through Brexit. Immigration, the right wing of the Tory party, Tory party, Tory party, the Tory party around sovereignty, it feels like this is just another Brexit election in a way.

[00:02:48] But there's one way in which I think it is and a big way in which it isn't. And the big way in which it isn't is going to be really critical for understanding the scale of Labour's likely success.

[00:02:58] So the way in which it is is if you look at people's past Brexit voting, it still predicts which camp there in rather than which individual party there in.

[00:03:10] So Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the S&P, these are all still remain camp parties and the Conservatives in our reform UK. These are still leave camp parties.

[00:03:23] So in that sense it's still kind of a Brexit election you can still see that Brexit kind of fracture running through our party system. There's two sets of parties on one on one side and one on the other side.

[00:03:36] But the way in which it isn't a Brexit election is that Labour have managed to build up support on both sides of the Brexit divide.

[00:03:46] And they've done that because voters have now become much more focused on a traditional set of bread and butter issues, state of public services, state of the economy, the cost of living.

[00:03:58] And that meant that Labour's votes have been rising across the board and the Conservatives have been sinking across the board.

[00:04:07] So the Conservatives are still more popular with leave voters than the remaining voters, but that's not a lot of use when you're on 25% with leave voters in 10% and best with the remaining voters. Well there's less leave voters.

[00:04:19] So I saw a poll saying that 55% now think we're wrong to leave the EU only 31% think that it was the right thing to do in 13% don't know.

[00:04:29] So when Rishi soon acts says you know we've got to be careful because Starma is trying to rebuild closer ties with Europe through the back door and Brexit at peril. Well according to that poll, 55% of people were saying well let's a good thing.

[00:04:44] Well yeah and I mean it reminds me a little bit as you know you see these days we've been David Attenberg does these shows about climate change. You see this footage of like a full-awaited pollabare floating on a slowly melting iceberg.

[00:04:56] That's kind of the way the Conservatives are now because they're floating away on a leave vote that is melting away both because many of its members have gone to join the choir eternal and are not going to be available to vote for the Conservative Party again.

[00:05:11] The grim reaper is doing its work given how long it is since Brexit now and how old the Brexit coalition was. But also a lot of voters have started to change their minds.

[00:05:21] So one of the reasons that Labor's vote is still quite remain is because the leave voters that they've picked up at disproportionately the ones who've changed their minds. So they've become remainers and that has actually become a thing and it's been an important source of Labor support.

[00:05:35] But all of that said I do want to emphasize the point that these voters and I think we can take them at their work because you can see across a range of indicators they're not making their choice based on Brexit.

[00:05:46] And they don't want to have an argument over Brexit. They're making their choice because the local area is stuffed because their paycheck is smaller because their gas bill is higher.

[00:05:56] It's a return to a much more traditional economic and public services focused kind of electoral argument that the kinds that we, used to have in the good old days before. But back then of course, I'll be interesting thing is we go far enough back.

[00:06:10] It's the old, the workers versus the bosses. It's the very, very ancient structures of British politics. But now it feels completely different. It feels as if we're moving into something that is totally uncharted territory for British elections certainly in the last century.

[00:06:25] Where one of the most successful, the most successful political organisation in Europe seems to be whole below the waterline. I mean, the changes in the way the new House of Commons is going to look are unprecedented it seems to me.

[00:06:37] Yes, that's right Roger. I mean, if the polls are anywhere near correct, then we're potentially looking at the biggest swing ever in a universal franchise election and the biggest change in the composition of the House of Commons.

[00:06:52] Perhaps since the 1906 liberal landslide perhaps since as far back as we can go in the record books.

[00:07:00] The scale of change that we could be about to witness is, well, you know, the range is from a 1997 style landslide of the Conservatives over perform through to rewrite the record books if they underperform.

[00:07:16] So we're likely to have a really, it'll be difficult, I think, for those who are used to following politics to really get to grips with how big this change will be.

[00:07:27] And, you know, how massive the kind of shifting every aspect of how politics works will be when we move from a weak and in conservative part with government with parliamentary majority to the first Labour government in 15 years with a massive parliamentary majority.

[00:07:46] You know, it's hard to sort of know for sure what that's kind of mean because changes like that don't come along going often.

[00:07:54] Yeah, it makes life difficult for people like yourself. It doesn't mean you know, it professes of politics who've written the books and everything else. I'm just all thrown up in the air.

[00:08:02] You're going to have to start saying pages out of your portfolio older books and start putting new ones in our guess. But it's why is it happening? I guess is the question. I mean clearly people have, you know, who build against austerity.

[00:08:16] But it can't just be that kind of, I mean austerity might have created some of the problems that people are seeing with, you know, the cost of living. The fact that the services health services is falling apart.

[00:08:27] The roads are riddled with pot holes even though that's going to be paid for supposedly by getting rid of a high speed rail link. We're going to fix it with pot holes.

[00:08:35] All of those things have gone wrong for the, for the true party. And yet here we are arguing that, you know, not spending money to get these things back on track.

[00:08:45] We've got this whole thing on both sides about what we are going to be fiscally conservative. We don't want another list trust moment. So we're going to fix all of these things but we can't spend too much money at money on it. That seems like two sides of politics are going exactly the same thing.

[00:09:00] It is difficult for Labour that point and I'll come back to that in a second. So I just wanted to pick up your point about what's driving this because I mean that's going to be a question.

[00:09:10] I'm going to spend a lot of time in the next year thinking about when I try and write, write up this dissolution and this Parliament in my next book.

[00:09:17] It's going to be fascinating things trying to figure out. And I think the important thing to bear in mind with any big change election and it's often forgotten because we all want a tagline, you know,

[00:09:28] our 1997 was Blaz, landslide on 1979 as the switch to theatres and water. And it's never that simple in reality. There's always a whole bunch of moving parts that come together to produce such a big shift in the electorate.

[00:09:42] So you know just off the top of my head here is a few of the things that I think are going into this. One is the demographic changes which I hinted at with regards the polar bear and the melting iceberg.

[00:09:51] The conservative electorate of 2019 has literally been dying off and the groups that Labour are strong is with have been growing. Then you've got the the list trust moment and the loss of economic competence.

[00:10:02] You've got the Boris Johnson moment and the loss of public trust and the public anger about that with party gate and so on.

[00:10:09] You've got Labour moving to the centre ground. Corbin was a major constraint on support for Labour in 2019. A lot of people didn't want Boris Johnson's brand of Brexit but thought that Jeremy Corbin's brand of socialism was even worse.

[00:10:25] So they stayed in the Tory coalition unhappy, leaving in droves. Now you've got Labour getting back onto the pitch in terms of basic competence and management.

[00:10:37] Currently the polling shows that Labour is seen as better able to manage every single major issue on the agenda than the Conservatives more trusted. Labour is more competent on every single issue from immigration and national security and the war in Ukraine and all these traditionally Tory topics.

[00:10:54] All the way through to public services and the NHS every single one Labour lead even Tony Blair did not achieve that. Then you've got things like the general sense of decline in the country and demand for change.

[00:11:06] Long running polling shows that that sense, that things are getting worse and big changes are needed. Has never been higher than it is now. It's not something that's passed to this.

[00:11:17] Yeah, absolutely, but then that gets back to the whole thing. Big changes are needed but everyone is going but we don't want the government to spend too much on it because of that list trust moments.

[00:11:26] So I wonder if I think that's a misinterpretation of the list trust moment. I don't think that the list trust moment showed that people or indeed markets aren't ready for governments to spend more money.

[00:11:41] The problem with this trust was that she thought you could just completely slash taxes and blow an enormous hole in the budget right after the biggest spending splurge in history. And she and her child and her child, so they were manifestly not competent.

[00:11:58] The markets could see it and the public could see it. One of the things that's stuck out for me about this very long in exhausting election campaign is that in the debates when questions about tax have been put to the leaders as they happen and as they should be.

[00:12:15] The conservatives have stuck very strongly to a line of we are the party we're going to attack cut your taxes in the future and labor have been very cautious but have been sticking to their very sort of finally defined these are the following tax rises that will go up and here's what you'll get for it.

[00:12:31] Now, labor have been getting applause from every audience every time they talk about putting up taxes. The SNP of being getting applause when they talk about putting up taxes even more and saying that actually labour on leveling with your taxes has got to go up more.

[00:12:47] Whereas when any more than or is she soon access I'm going to cut your taxes it's crickets it's tumble weed there's no reaction.

[00:12:54] I think this is a public that recognizes the magnitude of the mess we are in and it's the legacy issue as well isn't it because you wish you see that can say all look weird we're going to bring your taxes down but everyone's thinking well hang on a second you've put them up so much you're talking about taking down something that you put up in the business.

[00:13:11] But taxes go up but there's no benefit that's the point you don't see the benefit and and that's you know ever since austerity.

[00:13:19] Or I would say that the sense that things that money is going away from things that people actually care about so that issue about taxes what plays into that.

[00:13:27] The Tory line obviously is well if we cut tax we get growth if we get growth and we get more revenue which allows us to pay for the health service.

[00:13:34] But I think it's that two-step argument that people aren't convinced by because it's been used for the decades now we're never really seen it happen.

[00:13:42] Well I mean there are the moods in the public that rise and fall at the seasons and there have been periods where that argument about cut taxes and drive growth that there's been a very receptive audience for that.

[00:13:54] But you go back and look at the public polling from the 1980s there was a very receptive audience for that kind of factor argument in that period it landed very well.

[00:14:02] But the mood out there right now is very different one of the classic questions that gets asked to be the social attitude survey asked this is is it says do you think taxes should be kept the same or cut or raised.

[00:14:16] And so what is the pay for more public services and the share people say they want taxes up. Is it the highest it's been since since Blurfers came in in 1997 so that the public is kind of.

[00:14:27] Respected to the idea right now of higher taxes but then it comes back to Rogers point which is they are going to want to see something in return and they will get.

[00:14:37] And so what is the situation and irritable if they don't see something in return especially given that taxes are already so high so.

[00:14:45] Labour do have license right now to make the case for spending more money on on the NHS or on the green transition or whatever but they've got to be able to show the results and you know the problem they have is that the.

[00:14:59] And so it's not that the people say they have a lot of money and they have a lot of money because they've got to climb a pretty damn big and the patients the public will have.

[00:15:09] It's not clear that they're going to have you know masses and masses of patients because public trust is very low. You know you've got this combination of people saying they expect taxes to go up whoever wins but also saying they don't expect things to get better whoever wins.

[00:15:19] And then you can't break that kind of deeply sour and cynical vicious circle then it'll be them that gets turned on and turn against next. And what about the other dog that hasn't bugged really I think in this campaign though the vice-president said yesterday to go.

[00:15:35] What about migration immigration it was so dominant at one point and the Tory still kind of thinking is and maybe reformer writing that particular dragon but it doesn't seem to have taken off as an issue robber's time.

[00:15:47] Well I mean it has but it has in a very specific way and I mean to be honest.

[00:15:53] I was writing about this this dilemma for the Conservatives a while ago that the problem is that the politics of immigration has changed from the way it was the last time that they first you know when the Conservatives first came in in 2010 or in 2005 or in 2015.

[00:16:09] The immigration issue split both parties electorates. You had a bunch of conservative voters who were worried about immigration, a bunch of labour voters who were worried about immigration it was a top three issue for both parties supporters both parties needed to provide an answer on it or they were going to face a challenge for Mr. Farrog and elsewhere.

[00:16:26] There is no longer the case immigration is now the number one issue for the Conservatives it is no wonder they are talking about it a lot because their voters are seriously head up about it and partly that's because the Conservatives have prospered in recent elections by gobbling up.

[00:16:43] It is not a big priority issue for labour voters and this leaves the Conservatives in this kind of agonizing dilemma.

[00:16:59] I have to talk tough and talk constantly about immigration to try and see off the threat from Nigel Farrog but that isn't working because they aren't trusted by anti-immigration voters.

[00:17:11] When they spend all of their time talking about small boats and rewander and cutting the numbers then swing voters who are going over to labour and the Liberal Democrats are saying well have you got to stay about my bills?

[00:17:22] Have you got to say about my local hospital? Have you got to stay about public services? Why are you talking only to yourselves until these voters who like Mr. Farrog want anything like me?

[00:18:01] I am not sure if they are not trying to talk to those voters but the problem is right now they are in a kind of like a down-digit group.

[00:18:11] There are two small to win with and two big to ignore for them. If they lose all the anti-immigration voters to Farrog and reform UK they are really stuffed but if they talk only to the voters that find Farrog and reform UK appealing they are also stuffed.

[00:19:02] I think it was about Brexit because it was about migration. That's true but I would caution about making this too much about Brexit. I think you are probably more right Roger to remember that the group cause of Brexit migration played a big role.

[00:19:19] This challenge in terms of migration and whether to talk about it or not on how to talk about it or not. Every single European centre right party is struggling with this.

[00:19:28] You are seeing pop in its radical right parties securing a substantial chunk of the vote everywhere and everywhere their core issue is immigration and its effects.

[00:19:39] There are a lot of other voters who are not actually centering on economic issues and so on who don't like a politics that is focused entirely on immigration.

[00:19:55] It is a big dilemma in our system because at least if you are the Dutch centre right or the German centre right or the Spanish centre right you can say okay let's let the pop in its radical right party grab their slice of the elector and then do a deal with them in Parliament afterwards because they have got proportional systems.

[00:20:11] In our system if Farrog goes and grabs 10 to 12 to 15% in every seat he screwing you all over the shop.

[00:20:18] So what does all this tell us that you mentioned about the European situation and in fact it's been interesting of course to see how the European far right has risen in the latest European elections.

[00:20:30] What have we learned Rob about whether you call it the far right or not that is reform and what its prospects are in this country? Well I mean firstly Roger I'd be a bit cautious about saying that far right going up everywhere in Europe.

[00:20:42] I mean there's been a lot of rather alarmists sort of reactions to the recent European Parliament elections. The truth is there are some places that down often quite sharply and others I mean Poland for example a country I know will hopefully well.

[00:20:55] The former governing party of the far right had their worst election result 15 years in these European Parliament elections.

[00:21:01] So it's a bit more of a complicated picture but I think the lesson I would draw from the recent European Parliament elections is that the pop in this radical right they're here to stay everywhere and you've got in there for trying figure out how to negotiate with them.

[00:21:14] In our system that's a big headache because first pass the post is you know unless he changes the geography of his electorate or radically changes the nature of his coalition. Far right can't ever be anything other than a spoiler.

[00:21:30] His voters are two there's not enough of them and they're two even the spread all he does is harm the Conservatives and help their opponents. I mean he's a denialist till the chaos come home but that's the truth of the matter.

[00:21:41] And he's working with him and he might get a few seats so he gets a voice in Westminster which is not a step forward.

[00:21:47] But also he gets a massive voice within the Conservative party because coming back to Roger's question about reform and what they're going to mean well you know they get say 10% to 12% 40% of the vote next week.

[00:21:59] The entire subsequent Conservative leadership contest is going to be about far or four or against in some form or other.

[00:22:06] Do we have to oppose him or do we have to co-opt him and if we're going to co-opt him how do we co-opt him if we're going to oppose him how do we oppose him.

[00:22:14] The whole Tory leadership contest will be entirely about a person who isn't in the Conservative party which is exactly the result that Nigel Farage wanted to achieve by throwing his hat into the ring.

[00:22:26] So nothing changes then how again it goes sort of like gets back to an article on saying it's a new saying it's not all Brexit but it is like for a rush has been the problem hasn't he right from from the get go on all of this.

[00:22:36] So what about the reasoning behind this shift to the far right around Europe and the end in the UK as well is it immigration or is it just that all these other things that we talked about you know stuff isn't working the health services got cues.

[00:22:50] We don't feel as well offers we used to be and what was it like you know when things were going well.

[00:22:56] Oh, we didn't have quite so many migrants that must be the issue and the push against the elite which I think is it is a thing that perhaps even United just potentially with what's across the Atlantic Rob.

[00:23:06] I sense that the elite in one form or another has failed.

[00:23:09] Well, I mean again, sorry to just sort of push back a little bit again to do a shift to the far right in Europe it really isn't and I must keep emphasising this point because I think there's some other alarmists sort of over interpretation.

[00:23:19] Now the FN in France they're not new the PVV and the Netherlands are not new you know the the flamps belong in Belgium they're not new these are not new parties in lots space for even part in Austria.

[00:23:30] There are some that are broken through in Spain and Portugal and there are some that are doing better than they used to like the Sweden Democrats but this idea of a like Europe wide to the far right it's it's over.

[00:23:41] Over-cooking it a little bit but you know that said there are everywhere and then our part of the furniture and why is that well firstly.

[00:23:48] It is clear that everywhere their core issue is immigration and it is clear that everywhere their core lecture is people who don't like immigration and I think this reflects.

[00:23:57] A wide spread demographic and social reality across Europe and across the western world is true in the US and Canada and Australia too which is we have.

[00:24:06] We're the aging societies in this world and then we have much more much younger societies near to them and there is a natural tendency.

[00:24:15] A hard to resist and see if people to move from one to the other and some people are fine with that and you know actively embrace it and some people find that deeply disruptive and threatening.

[00:24:25] It's going to be a divide in line in our politics I think for the foreseeable future just as in the era after industrialization that divide in line between the people who own the factories and the people who work in the mousestructuring feature of our politics so I think it is here to stay.

[00:24:41] In that regard and I think it overlaps with the point that you made about elites because everywhere in Europe there is a suspicion and it's not a suspicion entirely without reason that the mainstream political elites of both left and right.

[00:24:56] We're going to get to the people to a staff our health care system who are going to get to pick our crops and so on they can see immigration as a solution to those problems even invoices don't necessarily like it as a solution to their problems.

[00:25:20] We create a kind of anti elite dynamic to the immigration issue which can then also feed into another broad social trend with seen everywhere which is a growing loss of trust in politics so populist radical politicians will you know very much sort of do the demographic.

[00:25:40] We're going to have to be a more accurate on immigration but they're also direct the rhetoric in terms of these are elites who fail you they care about your everyday interest they're not solving problems for you so.

[00:25:50] The arguments about immigration specifically fall on fertile soil because these are very often voters who have very little trust in the system as a whole.

[00:25:58] Speaking up on that issue about trust rock what about we spoken a lot about the two worries but what about labor assuming week to day they they pick up the flag that they're they move into number ten. Do they remain a party of what they've carefully.

[00:26:12] And choreographed to be a little party of the center very much or do they appeal to those on the left you have the same mistrust issues in terms of the elite.

[00:26:22] Well I think this is going to be a very, very tough balancing out for them in government and I think it will it will be very hard indeed for them to hold this coalition together for very long.

[00:26:32] I don't think the volatility of recent years is going to be at an end just because labor wins a big or decisive.

[00:26:39] Victory I think you know the shifts in the sands of politics will begin again probably quite quickly into the next parliament because as you say that the trust issue hasn't gone away and it's just as everything on the left is on the right.

[00:26:52] It's a fiscally constrained labor government they're going to have to let people down and they're going to if they actually genuinely want to deliver some change that's going to require make a decision that the annoy.

[00:27:03] Some people as well everybody will say are in favor of you know building more housing and reforming planning until it hasn't been plunks on their patch of turf and they get really very worked up.

[00:27:14] I see you just filled houses on the what whatever the remaining conservative electorates are just.

[00:27:21] On the six to the terms of just one from the Conservatives that's you know that's known that the whole not in my backyard you're right it's a tough job for them, but they are.

[00:27:31] The only sort of mainstream party in a way out they because they can at least try and tackle all of these things.

[00:27:38] Well you know the immigration issue it's important to them but it's not as important for their voters as it is for the Tory voters so they can sort of take that as a second order issue really.

[00:27:50] So that's a really advantage for them because obviously it's telling the other partners the other side apart. And and it means they can use immigration pragmatically as part of a solution to some of the other pressing problems that they've got in terms of the state of healthcare.

[00:28:05] They could further expand the season of agricultural workers scheme to help out farmers and help to be in food prices down. They could look at bringing in more skilled work of these as an areas like construction to help move along house building.

[00:28:18] If you're not facing like a perennial headache on our on immigration then you have opportunities to use it as a tool as part of the solution and if that keeps you know driving conservative voters.

[00:28:31] And then we're going to be a party and driving a divide with reform and then all the better.

[00:28:36] I mean, I think there will that will be a potential option for labor it's not without its risks though because that they are not a mean either to the politics of low trust or to the politics of anxiety about immigration.

[00:28:50] And once they are the government if they they push too far too fast on that stuff then they'll be on the receiving end of public anger too.

[00:28:58] And one thing we haven't mentioned at all in this is Scotland and the S&P has formed a very substantial part of the British electoral landscape for a while and many people thinking it might lose a great deal of that.

[00:29:10] And whether that would then flow to labor or wherever else is important for the makeup of the new parliament probably what do you see happening in Scotland.

[00:29:19] Well, I mean it's fascinating Roger because the swing to labor from the S&P in Scotland which is in current polling about 17 points it's as big as the swing.

[00:29:28] From the Conservatives to Labor in England but isn't anywhere anywhere near the attention and that's another long period of dominance by one party that the S&P have been running the Scottish government since 2007 to 17 years that's longer that's almost as long as the fact of age he is were at Westminster.

[00:29:48] And it seems like a similar dynamic is kicked in both anger and the government that hasn't delivered and whether it's been you know several scandals involving sort of petty graft and incompetence the people haven't liked.

[00:30:01] The departure of a really big powerful popular leader from the scene, Nicolas Sturgeon. There are only two political leaders in Britain who have managed to maintain positive approval ratings for many years in succession in government that was Tony Blair after 1997 through to the Iraq War and Nicolas Sturgeon.

[00:30:21] Who maintain positive approval ratings for the best part of decades. This basically never happens is a sort of donb redman level achievement in politics these days.

[00:30:30] So when she went it was always going to be tough to follow and well, Hamsi used if didn't exactly cover himself and glory in his brief period in charge and that has been you know there's this sort of meme this running joke doing the rounds about here's Thomas that he's managed to trap the Gini from Aladdin in Labor HQ.

[00:30:50] And he's just rubbing the lamp repeatedly and asking for more and more wishes. And one of the wishes would have been could you just make the S&P blow themselves up without me needing to do anything? And that's essentially what's happened in Scotland they've collapsed.

[00:31:03] They are now on the receiving end of the same kind of anti-government change, you know time for a change dynamic that we have south of the border and Labor are benefiting.

[00:31:12] Just by the fact that most of the reason for that is really very little to do with that.

[00:31:17] But if Labor does do well, I mean we know they're going to do well next week but if they do well over the next few years and we do start to see changes happening to the health service and the you know the rich board divide and people start to feel us so they're you know they're getting their lives back on track.

[00:31:32] People are going to look back, you know they might remember the betting scam. I mean it's been a you know they and that you know the prime minister appearing in a very soaked suit.

[00:31:41] And everything that's gone wrong before by the by the tree party it just feels like it's a catalog of disasters. Leaving D. Day early, you know just goes on there by the time this podcast is probably still probably be something else.

[00:31:53] It's just been everything's gone wrong for them but not because things have happened to them but because they've done it they've made the steak after steak after mistake.

[00:32:02] If it's a credible government that takes control people are surely going to say you know well we don't want to go back to them. Not only was you know time not we were not doing well but they just showed that they couldn't govern.

[00:32:15] And it's going to be a long time before they get into power if that if that is the thinking. Well I mean this is what I think will be one of the crucial tasks for an incoming labor government.

[00:32:27] I mean a line on very fond of from William Faulkner is the past isn't through with us it isn't even past.

[00:32:33] And the way I interpret that line is you know there isn't a fixed story of history it's constantly evolving and that is really important in politics because defining what the past men is part of the job of any political party in any government.

[00:32:51] I'll give you a really important example if you go back through the polling after the financial crisis when do you think people started to blame labor for the crash and the recession.

[00:33:02] A five years no I say long ten years no surely not well it wasn't when they were still in charge and it wasn't in the 2010 election campaign when in fact most people bought Brown's narrative that it was.

[00:33:16] And it was global forces that he did his best he helped about it wasn't their fault yeah it wasn't their fault.

[00:33:22] But if you then follow the polling through 2011 2012 and the relentless hammering of the labor maxed out Britain's credit card labor spent too much money labor why we expose in the financial crisis.

[00:33:35] You know Cameron and Osborne were relentless with those lines and by 2012 the public has changed its mind.

[00:33:42] And now it remembers that labor were the reason the financial crisis had happened so the public's understanding of the financial crisis changed after labor left government because the conservatives divert to new story.

[00:33:55] But what had happened that blame the government that had just left the government that is about to come in is going to have a once in a generation opportunity to blame the previous administration for everything that has gone wrong.

[00:34:08] In the previous few years I mean I remember my late mother she always used to say she came to this country in 1976 and she was used to say to me she was Dutch citizens she never got to vote in general actions but she was say you can't trust labor Robert they never buried the dead.

[00:34:22] You know we had dead the dead in the streets the winch of the end and that was another narrative that took hold after the fact and was incredibly powerful lived in the minds of voters for decades.

[00:34:33] And labor will have so many resonance stories of distress and failure that sort of sat there floating in people's minds they need to craft them into a narrative of those people did that to you don't let them in again you can never try.

[00:34:49] And then you are really ruthless about that if they really want a long spell impact you have to build the narrative you have to be in charge of narrative yeah absolutely so let feel questioned for you then just to finish off for a.

[00:35:00] Well, Nigel Farage ever be Prime Minister no. But he may not get to the table he may well get to determine who the next story Prime Minister is but he won't be here more.

[00:35:10] It's interesting. Alright well we'll hold you to that Rob thank you very much indeed a week today. We will find out if any of what we've been saying or what you've been saying or what you've been saying is actually going to come in.

[00:35:21] Yeah, that's right if the tourists win I think I might just quietly delete this podcast. Good to tell you. Thanks Robert but also this whole thing about you know proportional to the number of votes they get.

[00:35:36] We'll just get an oversized number of seats and that is the problem with the British electoral system isn't it that they you know percentage wise the number of seats all you need is that with the first pass the post system.

[00:35:48] Just a very narrow margin and you've won yeah where I and that can give you a disproportionate amount of power. We're going to look at that because that's just seems wrong but it stops but as many people say it provides strong government well.

[00:36:01] A bit of a laugh about that but he does provide also a strong majority usually and it also means that the fringe parties and inverted commas don't get to look in our way if you're happy to be perhaps you know green or live them you might object to that.

[00:36:15] And indeed reform but if you don't like reform and what it does then I suppose you think it's our safety net from right wing extremism but it's not fair is it's not.

[00:36:25] It's not so you know it's a the school of thought that says you know if you if you're worried about extremist parties if they're in power for a very short period of time they're going to be exposed for what they are and you know people are smart enough to realize.

[00:36:37] And if people want an extremist party and then they put them into power and they're like what they do and then you know perhaps says what we deserve but to actually say that we're protecting ourselves from ourselves with an electoral system.

[00:36:48] That really just looks after the two incumbent government you know the two mainstream parties that's a problem and if we find this time that Labour has you know such an overwhelming majority.

[00:36:59] They you know that nobody can stop them then that becomes a worry as well doesn't so the system is wrong. I think we know I think we know where you stand on all this and I think we know that you favor some kind of proportional representation.

[00:37:13] Well no actually I don't know anything I think that's I think we can talk about this we are going to talk about this next week. Yes we have to the Australian system it's used another part of the world as well.

[00:37:25] It's funny how often have we begun a conversation where you see what happens in our country.

[00:37:29] Yeah but it's not just Australia but the idea of preferences so you say because then you've got the ability to say so you would say for example when you wouldn't but somebody might say well I really want to vote for a reform.

[00:37:40] It's a protest vote and every form don't get in then I want the tourist to win. So then the research will say my second best. The very form vote then gets added onto the jury vote and so the tourist it's a standard great chance of winning.

[00:37:54] And that seems like a fairer system than just saying first pass the post but there's a load of other different systems as well. I think it's worth there are investing and we will talk about what's the best. What's the best system of voting?

[00:38:04] What is the one least likely to offend most people? No. Most likely to result. Well we'll work it all out anyway. What's the least worst way of choosing democracy which is the best system that we've got? This is a damn plain old thing are we really.

[00:38:21] I don't know but it will be interesting because it will be interesting because it will be always interesting of course. That's next week on the Waikir of Jonas for that thanks for being with us today. The wine curve.